西南不同农业区气温和降水量沿海拔梯度的变化特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.04.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1960-2013年气象数据，从站点尺度分析西南不同农业区（分为青藏区、西南区和华南区3个农业区）年平均气温和降水总量及其变化速率的时空特征，基于标准化线性回归系数分析纬度、海拔两个主控因素对气温、降水量变化的影响作用，重点阐释研究区气温、降水量沿海拔因素的变化特征。结果表明：1960-2013年，整个研究区呈现显著的气候暖干化趋势，在21世纪初期表现最明显。青藏区和华南区气候变暖的趋势最显著，而且高海拔青藏区气候变暖早于其它地区；研究区年降水总量呈显著下降趋势，其中西南区南部云南与贵州交界处表现最显著。标准化线性回归系数显示，海拔因素对研究区气温、降水量变化的影响作用高于纬度因素，气温、降水量的变化速率均随海拔升高而显著增加，研究区高海拔农业区属于典型的气候变化敏感区。随海拔上升，高海拔农业区下垫面潜热作用释放热量减小，气候变暖速率升高，由此导致蒸散作用增强，降水量增加，气候因子更易产生波动。

关键词: 气候变化, 海拔因子, 纬度因子, 影响分析

Abstract:

The meteorological station records during 1960-2013 were used to investigate temporal and spatial characteristics of temperature and precipitation change in different agriculture regions (i.e. the Tibetan Plateau agriculture region, the southwest China agriculture region, the south China agriculture region) of southwest China, and compare relative contributions of elevation factor and latitude factor by standardized regression coefficient with the purpose of exploring change features of the characteristics along increasing elevations. The results showed that, first, southwest China experienced a significantly warming and drying trend during 1960-2013, especially after 2000. The climate warming showed a significant trend, especially in the Tibetan Plateau agricultural region and the south China agricultural region. Specifically, the climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau agricultural region occurred earlier than other regions. Second, the study area underwent a significant climate drying trend, especially in the border of Yunan and Guizhou provinces. Third, the effect of the elevation factor was quantified to be more significant than the latitude factor by the standardized regression coefficient. Change trends of temperature and precipitation increased along increasing elevations meaning the positive correlation function of the elevation factor in the climate change process, which reveals higher climate sensitivity in higher elevation areas of southwest China. Along increasing elevations, a higher climate warming trend was caused by a decreasing trend of surface latent heat, and thereby brought about an increasing wetting trend due to a stronger evapotranspiration under the warming trend. The elevation-dependent change trend of temperature and precipitation indicated an enhanced climate fluctuation in higher elevations.

Key words: Climate change, Elevation factor, Latitude factor, Effect analysis

陶健，董建新，刘光亮，张戈丽，朱军涛，宋文静，王程栋，陈爱国，王树声. 西南不同农业区气温和降水量沿海拔梯度的变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(04): 379-389.

TAO Jian, DONG Jian-xin, LIU Guang-liang, ZHANG Ge-li, ZHU Jun-tao, SONG Wen-jing, WANG Cheng-dong, CHEN Ai-guo, WANG Shu-sheng. Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation Change along Increasing Elevations in Different Agriculture Regions of Southwest China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(04): 379-389.

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