1961-2015年华北平原夏玉米生长季光热资源变化及其影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.07.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用华北平原夏玉米种植区55个气象站点1961-2015年逐日地面观测资料，以≥10℃活动积温和太阳辐射分别为热量资源和光照资源指标，从年代际尺度和年际尺度分析夏玉米生长季光热资源线性趋势和空间分布变化特征，定量研究光热资源变化对夏玉米潜在产量的影响。结果表明：夏玉米生长季热量资源呈显著增加趋势，各积温等值线均发生明显北移现象；所有站点夏玉米生长季辐射资源均呈显著下降趋势。与1961-1980年相比，近15a（2011-2015年）研究区夏玉米生长季≥10℃活动积温增加1.8%，太阳总辐射量减少16.2%。研究时段内夏玉米光温潜在产量呈显著下降趋势，平均变化率为-28.3kg·667m-2·10a-1 (P＜0.05)，高值区面积随着时段变化不断减少，表明辐射资源减少对光温潜在产量的负作用大于热量资源增加带来的正作用。目前研究区夏玉米单产仅达到光温潜在产量的27.5%，仍有很大提升空间。未来研究还需综合考虑光、温、水、农艺措施等气候要素和社会要素的影响，为华北地区夏玉米生产布局和调整提供科学依据，以适应气候变化的影响。

关键词: 华北平原, 热量资源, 太阳辐射, 夏玉米, 生长季

Abstract: Based on the 1961-2015 ground surface data from 55 meteorological stations in the summer maize plating area of the North China Plain, spatiotemporal distribution and variation of heat and solar resources in annual scale and in different periods were analyzed. In this study, active accumulated temperature over 10℃(DT10) and solar radiation were used as the indices of heat resources and solar resources, respectively, and the impact of the changes in heat resources and solar resources on maize potential yield was also calculated. In the past 55 years, DT10 in the maize growing season has significantly increased by 75.4℃·d, and all the contour lines of accumulated temperature have obviously shifted toward north. As for the solar radiation in maize growing season, a significant decreasing trend was found for each station. In the last 15 years, the DT10 increased by 8% while solar radiation reduced by 16.2% compared to that in 1961?1980. Overall, climate change increased heat resources and reduced solar resources in the North China Plain, which had positive and negative effects on the maize production in the North China Plain. In recent 55 years, photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity of maize showed significant decreasing trend with trend value ?28.3kg·667m?2·10y?1(P<0.05). The area of high photosynthesis-temperature potential yield has also decreased in different period, indicating that the negative effect of the reducing radiation resources on photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity was greater than the positive one due to the increase in heat resources. There is still a lot promoting room for maize productivity in the study area, for the maize yield per unit area only reaches 27.5% of the photosynthesis-temperature potential yield. Further research is needed by comprehensively considering the influence of other climatic factors like precipitation, as well as social factors like agronomic measures.

Key words: North China Plain, Heat resources, Solar radiation, Summer maize, Growing season

杨鹏宇，胡琦，马雪晴，胡莉婷，任飞扬，闫梦玲，黄彬香，潘学标，何奇瑾. 1961-2015年华北平原夏玉米生长季光热资源变化及其影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(07): 431-441.

YANG Peng-yu, HU Qi, MA Xue-qing, HU Li-ting, REN Fei-yang, YAN Meng-ling, . Spatiotemporal Variation of Heat and Solar Resources and Its Impact on Summer Maize in the North China Plain over the Period 1961-2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(07): 431-441.

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