江苏水稻高温热害气象指数保险风险综合区划

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.06.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以江苏省为例，利用1980-2015年气象资料和水稻观测数据，基于Logistic曲线方程构建高温热害保险气象指数，并分别采用正态分布、正态对数分布和Weibull分布三种参数模型，以及基于信息扩散方法的非参数模型对水稻高温热害发生概率进行拟合。通过拟合优度检验发现，非参数模型可以较好地估算江苏各县水稻孕穗-抽穗扬花阶段高温热害发生概率，进而结合最优拟合模型，考虑农业保险的经营需求，从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力四个方面出发，确定相应评估指数并构建综合指数，采用聚类分析的方法进行县级水平的水稻高温热害保险风险综合区划。评估分析表明，江苏水稻高温热害保险风险呈现“西南高东北低”的特征，中高风险区是需要依靠农业保险转移风险的重点关注区域。

关键词: 水稻, 高温热害, 指数保险, 模型, 风险区划评估

Abstract: Taking Jiangsu as an example, based on logistic curve equation, historical meteorological data and rice yield observations from 1980 to 2015 was used to construct the meteorological index of high temperature heat hazard insurance. After that, three parametric models included normal distribution, normal logarithmic distribution and Weibull distribution and non-parametric model based on information diffusion method were used to fit the occurrence probability of high temperature heat damage in rice. Through goodness-of-fit test, it was found that the non-parametric model could better estimate the probability of high temperature heat damage occurred during booting to heading and flowering stages of rice in each county of Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, combined with the optimal fitting model, considering the operational needs of agricultural insurance, the corresponding evaluation index was determined, while the comprehensive index was constructed from four aspects: the risk of disaster-causing factors, the sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on that, cluster analysis was used to carry out the comprehensive risk zoning of high temperature heat injury insurance for rice at county level. Through evaluation and analysis of the zoning result, it was found that the risk of high temperature heat injury insurance of rice in Jiangsu presented the characteristics of ＂high in the southwest and low in the northeast＂. At the same time, it also pointed out that the moderate and high risk areas were the key regions which need to rely on agricultural insurance to transfer the risk.

Key words: Rice, High temperature disaster, Index insurance, Model, Risk division and assessment

任义方，赵艳霞，张旭晖，王平，何浪. 江苏水稻高温热害气象指数保险风险综合区划[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(06): 391-401.

REN Yi-fang, ZHAO Yan-xia, ZHANG Xu-hui, WANG Ping, HE Lang. Comprehensive Risk Regionalization of Meteorological Index Insurance for High Temperature Heat Damage of Rice in Jiangsu Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(06): 391-401.

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