中国农业气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (07): 563-575.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2022.07.005

• 农业气象灾害 栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

华南芒果种植区寒冻害危险性区划与评估

孙朝锋,林雯,黄川容,吴立,陈家金,王加义,林辉阳   

  1. 1. 福建省气象服务中心,福州 350001;2. 福建省莆田市气象局,莆田 351100
  • 收稿日期:2021-09-29 出版日期:2022-07-20 发布日期:2022-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 陈家金,教授级高级工程师,主要从事农业气象灾害研究. E-mail:cjj8284@163.com
  • 作者简介:孙朝锋,E-mail:scfeng1989@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    公性行业益(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406027);福建省气象局开放式研究基金项目(2019KH05)

GIS-based Risk Zoning and Assessment of Mongo Cold and Freezing Injury in South China

SUN Chao-feng, LIN Wen, HUANG Chuan-rong, WU Li, CHEN Jia-jin, WANG Jia-yi, LIN Hui-yang   

  1. 1. Fujian Meteorological Service Center, Fuzhou 350001, China; 2. Meteorological Bureau of Putian City, Putian 351100
  • Received:2021-09-29 Online:2022-07-20 Published:2022-07-20

摘要: 利用华南(广东、广西、福建)芒果种植区115个气象站1961−2016年观测资料,结合芒果寒冻害指标,采用加权综合评价法,确定种植区各气象站点的寒冻害危险性指数,建立寒冻害危险性指数与地理因子之间的多元线性回归模型,并基于GIS技术对华南芒果种植区寒冻害危险性进行区划。结果表明:华南芒果种植区寒冻害危险性与地理因子之间关系密切,总体呈现由沿海到内陆,寒冻害危险性逐渐变大的趋势,此外,随着纬度和海拔的增高,从南到北芒果寒冻害危险性程度也逐渐增大。轻度危险区主要分布在华南芒果种植区南部沿海地带及部分内陆地市的低海拔地区,占种植区面积比例为56.85%,该区域适合大规模种植芒果;中度寒冻害危险性区域主要分布在华南芒果种植区内陆中低海拔地区以及北部高纬度沿海地区,占种植区面积比例为37.03%;重度以上的寒冻害危险性区域主要分布在华南芒果种植区内陆高海拔地区,占种植区面积比例为6.12%。通过历史灾情和各县区年产量资料验证,区划结果与实际较为吻合,研究结果可为华南地区芒果的优化布局和防灾减灾提供参考。

关键词: 芒果, 寒冻害, 危险性区划, 华南芒果种植区, GIS

Abstract: Based on the observation data of 115 weather stations of mango planting areas in South China (Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian) from 1961 to 2016, combined with mango cold and freezing injury index, the weighted comprehensive evaluation method was used to determine the cold and freezing injury hazard index of each meteorological station in the planting area, and then established a multiple linear regression model between the cold and freezing injury hazard index and geographical factors. Finally, the regionalization of cold and freezing injury to mango in South China was made based on GIS technology. The results showed that there was a close relationship between the risk of cold and freezing injury and geographical factors in South China mango planting areas, and an overall trend was that the risk of mango cold and freezing injury gradually increased from coast to inland. In addition, with the increase of latitude and altitude, the risk of cold and freezing injury gradually increased from south to north. The slight risk areas were mainly distributed in the southern coastal areas and the low altitude areas of some inland cities of South China mango planting areas, accounting for 56.85% of the planting area, which was suitable for large-scale mango planting. The moderate risk areas were mainly distributed in the inland low and middle altitude areas of the mango planting area in South China, and the high latitude coastal areas in the north, accounting for 37.03% of the planting area. Furthermore, the severe and over severe hazard areas were mainly distributed in the inland high altitude areas of mango planting areas in South China, accounting for 6.12% of the planting area. Through the verification of historical disaster and annual production information of each county, the zoning result was consistent well with the actual situation. The results of this study could provide reference for the optimal layout and disaster prevention and mitigation of mango in South China mango planting area.

Key words: Mango, Cold and freezing injury, Risk zoning, South China, Geographical Information System