关键词: 粮食生产, 气候变化, 敏感性, 适应性, 脆弱性, 黑龙江省

Abstract: The Sensitivity index was defined as the climate yield divided by climate potential productivity.Adaptation index referred to the trend-yield divided by climate potential productivity.Vulnerability index was equaled to sensitivity divided by adaptation.Based on the date of agricultural production in 70 counties and cities and of meteorology in 21 meteorological stations during 1986-2000 in Heilongjiang Province,the vulnerability of grain crop yields to impacts of climate change in Heilongjiang Province was calculated and analyzed.The results showed that at the annual average level during 1986-2000,the Adaptation index of grain crop production in Heilongjiang Province was relative high as a whole,but it was higher in south than that in north.The most sensitive and vulnerable regions were Daxing'anling and Nenjiang Plain.From the time scale,the adaptation,sensitivity and vulnerability index in Heilongjiang Province had an increased trend.The increase of the sensitivity index was most significantly.Because of the increased adaptation index,the increase of vulnerability index was reduced.The research provided a new and simplified method to quantitatively assess responses of the grain crop production to the climate change in Heilongjiang Province.

Key words: Grain crop production, Grain crop production, Climate change, Sensitivity, Adaptation, Vulnerability, Heilongjiang Province