关键词: 宁夏, DSSAT模型, 气候变化, 适应

Abstract: The potato production was simulated in Ningxia at 25km×25km grid under B2 emission scenario by using DSSAT crop model associated with the climate change scenario produced by PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies).The results showed that keeping potato variety and field managements unchanged and taking account of CO2 fertilization,by 2020S and 2050S,the potato yield will increase 11.3% and 13.3% respectively under B2 scenario,and the growing season will shorten about 5% and 3%.If the sowing date was advanced and other measures didn't be changed,the potato yield would increase and growing season would prolong.But when the advanced sowing date exceeded 10 days,the increasing extent of yield would decrease.Contrarily,potato yield would decrease and growing season would shorten when sowing date were postponed.While changing the cultivar sensitivity coefficient to air temperature(TC),the simulation results indicated that the yield and growing season of potato would augment when TC was decreased,if TC was increased,the yield and growing season of potato would descend.So advanced sowing data and planted lower TC potato would reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on Ningxia potato production.

Key words: Ningxia, Ningxia, DSSAT model, Climate change, Adaptation