Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (04): 519-526.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.04.008

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ynamic Forecast Model of Winter Wheat Yield Based on Climate and Soil Moisture Suitability

DAI Li qin,LI Chun qiang,KANG Xi yan,YAO Shu ran   

  1. Hebei Institute of Meteorological Science/Hebei Key Lab for Meteorology and Eco environment, Shijiazhuang050021, China
  • Received:2012-04-05 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2013-02-26

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Abstract: The integrative suitability model of temperature-sunshine-soil moisture and the dynamic forecast model of winter wheat yield every ten days were established,by using the fuzzy mathematics and soil water balance principle,based on daily meteorological data,moisture data, winter wheat growth data,irrigation data at 16 agro meteorological stations,and winter wheat yield data at 8 cities in Hebei province.The results showed that the integrative suitability of temperature sunshine-soil moisture reflected the weather and soil moisture conditions objectively.There was significant correlation between temperature-sunshine-soil moisture suitability and winter wheat yield (P＜0.01), which was greater than the correlation between temperature-sunshine-precipitation suitability and winter wheat yield.The mean relative errors of the dynamic forecast model of winter wheat yield for historical forecasting from 1981 to 2008 and yield forecasting from 2009 to 2010 were 6.1% and 1.2% respectively,which indicated that the forecast model has higher applicable value to operational service.

Key words: Winter wheat, Dynamic forecast for yield, Climatic suitability, Soil moisture suitability, Hebei province

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