Impact of ENSO Event on Precipitation and Drought Index in Shandong Province

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.06.002

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the monthly temperature, precipitation data and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEI) of 18 meteorological stations in Shandong province, the impact of ENSO events on climate change and drought variation were analyzed during recent 53 years in the study area. The results showed that：(1)the mean annual temperature of Shandong province was experienced fluctuation growth trend with a speed of 0.26℃·10y-1 (P＜0.05), but it was not proved a significant relationship with ENSO events. (2)The annual precipitation of Shandong province was also experienced fluctuation growth with a speed of -15.32mm·10y-1 (P＜0.05) and tested a significant negative correlation with the intensity of ENSO events, and the impact of moderate and strong ENSO events were more obvious. The monthly precipitation was lagged 1 to 2 months and 0 to 4 months by warm and cold ENSO events respectively. (3)The SPEI of Shandong province was decreased slowly nearly 53 years, while the frequency and intensity of drought were increased significantly from the 1980s. There were 11 years of domain drought, 4 years of regional drought, 6 years of partial-local drought and 17 years of local drought totally, and the spatial extent of the drought was gradually increased. (4)The intensity of ENSO events and SPEI was examined a significant negative correlation (P＜0.05), and a positive correlation with the drought extent (P＜0.05).

Key words: Drought, Standardised precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), ENSO, Annual precipitation, Correlation analysis

MA Lu, YANG Dong, QIAN Da-wen. Impact of ENSO Event on Precipitation and Drought Index in Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(06): 666-673.

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