Study on the Differences of the Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Yield in China—Quantitative Review Based on Meta Regression Analysis

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.03.001

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explain the differences in wheat yield prediction results and provide a reference for the following-up study in this field, this paper summarized the domestic and foreign researches on the impact of future climate change on China’s wheat yield by 2017, and analyzed the literatures of 26 relatively comprehensive and complete literatures, and discussed the possibility of differences in the results of the original independent research. The results showed that: (1) the effects of future climate change on wheat production were uncertain, and negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones; the projected reductions in wheat production under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios were 18% and 20% higher than those in other climate scenarios.(2) The non-climatic factors such as policy, technology, market and input could help to adapt to climate change; the yield of wheat considering these factors would increase by 10%. (3) Research data and methods may had a significant impact on the projections; the wheat yield of positive change would increase by 1% and the wheat yield of negative change would decrease by 1% when the projected time interval increased one year; separating yield, using corresponding climate models and crop models would have a significant positive effect on the increasing yield, with the level of 26%, 22% and 18%, respectively. (4) The projections of journal literatures were 5% higher than those outcomes summarized from non-journal literatures.

Key words: Climate change, Wheat yield, Difference, Meta-analysis

ZHOU Jing-bo，LIU Liang. Study on the Differences of the Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Yield in China—Quantitative Review Based on Meta Regression Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(03): 141-151.

References

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