Spatial and Temporal Variation of Actual Evapotranspiration in China under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ Global Warming Scenarios

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.05.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle, and understanding it's changing patterns in the warming world is of great significance to the integrated water resources management. Monthly evapotranspiration outputs from 17 global climate models for 1961?2100 are used to analyze spatial and temporal changes of actual evapotranspiration over China under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios. The results showed that: (1) In the 1.5℃ warming level, annual actual evapotranspiration in China will show a spatial pattern of decrease from the southeast coastal area to the northwest inland. Actual evapotranspiration over China is projected to 4.4% higher than in the reference period of 1986-2005, with the highest growth rate of 7.7% in the Northwest River Basin. Seasonally, increase of actual evapotranspiration will be obvious in winter, reaching at about 5.2%. (2) In the 2.0℃ warming, annual actual evapotranspiration over China will increase by 7.8% with relative to the reference period. The growth rate in the river basins in southern China is less than that in the north. Increase of actual evapotranspiration in the Pearl River Basin will be about 3.9%, but possibly approaching 10% in the Liaohe River Basin in northeast China and the central Northwest River Basin. On seasonal scale, the highest increase of actual evapotranspiration by 8.3% will be in spring and winter over China. (3) Relative to the 1.5℃ level, annual actual evapotranspiration will increase by about 3.4% for an additional 0.5℃ global warming scenario in China. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase obviously in northwest of the Southwest River Basin, southwest of the Northwest River Basin and the Liaohe River Basin, but might be slightly reduced in northeast and northwest parts of the Northwest River Basin. Seasonally, growth rate will be high in spring but comparatively less in autumn. The projected result that the actual evapotranspiration might show an upward trend in China with the increase of global mean temperature indicates aggravation of regional droughts in future, which might bring adverse impacts on agricultural production.

Key words: Evapotranspiration, 1.5℃ warming, 2.0℃ warming, Ten river basins, Climate change

SU Bu-da, ZHOU Jian, WANG Yan-jun, TAO Hui, GAO Chao, LIU Feng-xia, LI Xiu-cang, . Spatial and Temporal Variation of Actual Evapotranspiration in China under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ Global Warming Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(05): 293-303.

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