Spatial and Temporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Southwestern China in the Rainy Season

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.01.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data of 477 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2013 in southwestern China, the spatial distribution and variation features of 11 extreme precipitation indices were analyzed by using the linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and moving t test. Besides, the relationship among the multi-year average of extreme precipitation indices，variation trend and altitude were also discussed. The results were as follows: (1) in the past 43 years, the decline rates of PRCPTOT, CWD, R1mm, R10mm and SDII in the rainy season of southwest China were 12.6mm·10y-1, 0.23d·10y-1, 1.57d·10y-1, 0.49d·10y-1 and 0.31mm·d-1·10y-1(P<0.05) respectively, the growth rate of CDD is 0.37d·10y-1 (P<0.05), while the changes in Rx1day, Rx5day, R95, R99, and R20mm were not significant. (2) The mutations of CDD, R1mm, and Rx1day in the rainy season occurred in the 1980s intensively, while the mutations of PRCPTOT, R10mm, Rx5day, and SDII occurred mainly around 2003. RCPTOT, CDD, R1mm, R10mm, Rx1day, and SDII showed certain stability before mutation year and a significant increase or decrease trend after mutation year. (3) From the perspective of spatial distribution, not all regions showed the tendency of drought. The extent of drought in rainy season at the junction of Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces was more serious, the risk of heavy rain and flood disaster in the rainy season in southeastern Guangxi was greater, while rainy season in the Hengduan Mountains was more humid. (4) In terms of the contribution rate, variation trend of precipitation proportion in rainy season in southwestern had a strong regional characteristic: the contribution rate of rainy season indices for the whole year in northern Sichuan and Tibet had declined year by year, while in southeastern Guangxi it had gradually increased. (5) Judging from the relationship between the 11 indices and altitude, in high altitude regions of southwestern, the R1mm value was higher and the precipitation was mainly moderate and light rain. Besides, the multi-year average values of PRCPTOT, R1mm, R10mm and R20mm showed different degrees of upward trend. Therefore, the climate had become more humid in the past 43 years. On the other hand, in low altitude regions, R1mm was lower, while R95, R99, Rx1day, Rx5day, and SDII were higher and CWD, CDD showed an upward trend. Therefore, the risk of flooding and drought in the low altitude regions during the rainy season was relatively larger.

Key words: Extreme precipitation index, Rainy season precipitation, Southwestern China, Precipitation days, Precipitation intensity

WANG Hao, JIANG Chao, WANG He-song, SUN Jian-xin. Spatial and Temporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Southwestern China in the Rainy Season[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(01): 1-14.

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