Human-grain Relationship and Its Future Change in Yunnan Based on Climatic Potential Productivity

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.02.004

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to analyze and compare population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship based on food supply and climatic potential productivity (Tspv) in Yunnan, population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under future climate change were predicted. In this study, using average temperature and annual precipitation observed by 117 meteorological stations in Yunnan in 1961?2015 and simulated by the global climate model in 2016-2055, the temporal-spatial changing characteristics of Tspv in various regions of Yunnan were calculated and analyzed by the Thornthwaite Memorial model, and Tspv -population carrying capacity and climate carrying capacity were constructed and calculated. The results showed that: (1) Tspv in Yunnan presented obvious zonal and vertical distribution. Overall, Tspv was higher in the south than that in the north, and higher in areas at low altitude than that in areas at high altitude. Precipitation is the main limiting factor of Tspv in Yunnan. (2)In 1961-2015, Tspv only significantly increased in partial areas of western Yunnan, significantly decreased in local areas of central Yunnan, and showed no obvious change in other areas. Average Tspv in Yunnan presented large inter-annual fluctuations and a significant change around 2009. (3)In 2006-2015, per capita grain supply in Yunnan grew steadily, approaching or exceeding the demand of well-off grain. Cultivated land-population carrying capacity increased year by year, but was far lower than Tspv-population carrying capacity. Although during year with a sharp yield reduction, Tspv-population carrying capacity could still meet the demand of affluent grain under current population and cultivated land scale, with a surplus human-grain relationship. (4)With current stable amplitude of population, cultivated land and productivity, Tspv and Tspv-population carrying capacity in Yunnan will increase stably, and human-grain relationship will mainly be grain surplus under different emissions in the future. The carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under high emission will be superior to low emission.

Key words: Yunnan, Climate potential productivity, Population carrying capacity, Climate carrying capacity, Human-grain relationship, Climate change prediction

LI Meng, ZHU Yong, ZHOU Jian-qin, MA Si-yuan. Human-grain Relationship and Its Future Change in Yunnan Based on Climatic Potential Productivity[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(02): 96-104.

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