Improvement and Prediction of Cold Freezing Injury Index of Korla Fragrant Pear Trees in Winter

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.07.006

Abstract

Abstract: Using the daily weather observation data and atmospheric circulation data from Korla weather station from 1981 to 2017, four meteorological factors（including extreme minimum temperature in winter, negative accumulated temperature of daily average temperature ≤-10℃, the minimum temperature days ≤-15℃, number of days with snow depth ≥5cm）with significant effects on winter freezing injury of pear trees were synthesized into a comprehensive freezing injury index by Principal Component Analysis（PCA）. Then, using the index as the prediction object, the Pearson correlation analysis and stepwise regression method were used to select the atmospheric circulation factor which was significantly correlated with the comprehensive frost damage index as the independent variable, and the comprehensive frost damage index prediction model was established. Finally, the model effect was tested by using data from 1981 to 2017. The results showed that the comprehensive freezing injury index reflected the freezing injury of Korla pear trees over these years, and the smaller the index value, the more serious the degree of freezing injury. Combined with historical disaster records, definition of comprehensive freezing injury index >-0.42 was no freezing injury, -0.91 to -0.42 was slight freezing injury, -1.8 to -0.92 was moderate freezing injury, and comprehensive freezing injury index

Key words: Korla fragrant pear, Principal component analysis, Freezing injury index, Circulation characteristic quantity

ZHANG Shi-ming，GU Jun-ming. Improvement and Prediction of Cold Freezing Injury Index of Korla Fragrant Pear Trees in Winter[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(07): 467-473.

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