Abstract: To provide a scientific basis for reasonably planting rice in China, this study investigated the major climatic factors affecting the rice distribution and predicted the changes of rice suitable areas in the past and future periods, using the distribution data of rice, the high-spatial-resolution historical (1970−2000) and future (2081−2100) climate data, and the MaxEnt model. The results showed: (1) the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of early rice and late rice were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest quarter, and precipitation of driest quarter, and those of single-season rice were annual mean temperature and precipitation of warmest quarter; (2) In the historical period, the suitable planting areas for early rice and late rice in China were mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the south of the Yangtze River, accounting for 14.26% and 13.01%, respectively, where most of the regions were slight suitable areas, accounting for 7.66% and 6.62%, respectively. The area of the suitable planting area for one season rice accounted for 45.46%, and most of the regions were slight suitable areas and suitable areas, accounting for 23.47% and 18.86%, respectively; (3) Compared with the historical period, the future suitable planting areas of early rice under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios increased by 6.27, 9.26, and 16.66 percentage points, respectively; the future suitable planting areas of late rice increased by 4.26, 5.55, and 10.97 percentage points, respectively; and the suitable planting area of one season rice increased by 11.34, 18.46 and 28.31 percentage points, respectively. To the end of the century, the suitable planting areas for early rice would expand to Sichuan, Chongqing and Huang-Huai area, the suitable planting areas for late rice would expand to Sichuan, Chongqing and a small area of the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the optimum suitable areas for one-cropping rice showed spatial expansion to the North China Plain and Northeast China. In general, future climate change will contribute to the expansion of suitable rice planting areas over China.

Key words: Rice, Climate factor, Potential suitable planting area, MaxEnt model