Abstract:

Based on multi−source data such as land use data, meteorological data and soil type space, this study used the FLUS model to estimate the spatial pattern change of land use in the Shiyang river basin under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection and cultivated land protection in 2035, and coupled with the InVEST model to simulate the water conservation under the three scenarios. Compared with the water conservation in the Shiyang river basin in 2020, the spatial and temporal distribution and influencing factors of water conservation in the Shiyang river basin under the three scenarios were deeply explored, in order to solve the problems of non−standard water resources management. The results showed that: (1) the projected water conservation Shiyang river basin under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection in 2035 would be 5.25×10⁸m³, 5.28×10⁸m³ and 5.33×10⁸m³, respectively. (2) According to the analysis of different county−level administrative regions, the water conservation capacity of Sunan county in 2035 would increase the most under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection and cultivated land protection, with an increase of 24.53%, 27.03% and 24.55%, respectively. Gulang county's water capacity would be reduced by 30.74%, 15.38% and 29.72% compared with 2020. According to the analysis of different land use types, the total water conservation in the Shiyang river basin under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection and cultivated land protection in 2035 would be as follows: grassland>unused land>forest>farmland>shrub>construction land. (3) The average temperature in 2020 was the leading factor that affects the water sources of the Shiyang river basin. The average temperature had the strongest interpretation of the interaction with the NDVI, reaching 0.764. Social factor total population, GDP and natural factor (average temperature, digital high, precipitation and slope) interaction were enhanced by dual−factor.

Key words: Water conservation capacity, InVEST model, FLUS model, Geography detector