Abstract:

This study investigated the temporal and spatial variability characteristics of climate potential production in Guizhou province by utilizing data from 79 national meteorological stations (1961−2023) combined with the Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial models. The findings provided valuable references for optimizing climate resource utilization and guiding scientific agricultural production planning. The results indicated that: (1) from 1961 to 2023, Guizhou province experienced significant abrupt changes in temperature, precipitation and standard climate potential production, with substantial spatial distribution disparities. The temperature increased at a rate of 0.15°C·10y⁻¹ (P < 0.01), with 91.1% of the stations showed an increasing trend (P<0.05). After an abrupt change in 2005, the mean temperature rose by 0.6℃. Precipitation exhibited no significant overall trend, 8.9% of the stations demonstrated a decreasing tendency (P<0.05). After an abrupt change in 2022, the precipitation reduction 207.1mm. The standard climate potential production also showed no significant overall trend, but 12.7% of the stations displayed an increasing trend (P<0.05), while 1.3% exhibited a decreasing trend (P<0.05). After an abrupt change in 2012, the average standard climate potential production increased by 280.8kg·ha⁻¹. (2) From 1961 to 2023, the water heat ratio of climate potential production across Guizhou province remained below 1, while 1.3% of the stations showed an increasing trend (P<0.05), 34.2% exhibited a decreasing trend (P<0.05). Projections suggested an increased imbalance in the water−to−heat ratio of future climate potential production. (3) From 1961 to 2023, the sensitivity coefficients of standard climate potential production to temperature and precipitation changes in Guizhou were 422.0kg·ha⁻¹·°C⁻¹ and 4.0kg·ha⁻¹·mm⁻¹. Precipitation had a more dominant effect on the production of the standard climate potential production than temperature. Given the projected significant warming trend in Guizhou, enhanced attention should be paid to the impact of precipitation variability. 

Key words: Guizhou, Temperature, Precipitation, Climate potential production, Climate change