Abstract:

Based on panel data encompassing agriculture, water resources, economy, and society from 40 counties (districts, cities) in the Fenhe river basin from 2011 to 2022, this study employed the coupling coordination degree model, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, and kernel density estimation to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of the coupling coordination degree between agricultural water resources utilization efficiency and agricultural modernization. The aim was to provide scientific evidence and policy recommendations for achieving high−quality agricultural development in the Fenhe river basin. The results showed that: (1) from 2011 to 2022, the agricultural water resources utilization efficiency in the Fenhe river basin showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the mean efficiency evaluation score significantly increasing from 0.094 in 2011 to 0.134 in 2022 (P<0.05). Spatially, the efficiency generally followed the pattern of midstream (0.117) > upstream (0.096) > downstream (0.087). (2) The level of agricultural modernization in the Fenhe river basin also exhibited a fluctuating upward trend during the study period, with the mean evaluation score for development level significantly rising (P<0.05) from 0.183 in 2011 to 0.256 in 2022. Spatially, the midstream (0.220) and downstream (0.225) regions were significantly higher than the upstream region (0.168). (3) The coupling coordination degree between agricultural water resources utilization efficiency and agricultural modernization in the Fenhe river basin demonstrated a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7%. Spatially, the midstream region (0.392) exhibited significantly higher coordination levels than the upstream (0.349) and downstream regions (0.370). (4) The regional disparities in coupling coordination across the upstream, midstream and downstream regions of the Fenhe river basin mainly stemmed from intra−regional and inter−regional differences. Upstream regions suffered from uneven resource allocation due to mountainous terrain and weak infrastructure, while the midstream regions benefited from intensive production models and policy support, demonstrating balanced development. Downstream regions achieved notable progress in ecological management and technological advancement. (5) During the study period, the kernel density curve of the coupling coordination degree in the Fenhe river basin shifted rightward, with peaks gradually rising and bandwidth narrowing, indicating a gradual reduction in disparities among the upstream, midstream and downstream regions and enhanced overall coordination. The study recommends strengthening infrastructure construction in upstream regions, promoting technology diffusion in midstream regions, and optimizing ecological governance policies in downstream regions to foster balanced regional development. 

Key words: Agricultural water resources utilization efficiency, Agricultural modernization, Coupling coordination relationship, Fenhe river basin