Abstract: By using daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2010 and phenological data of Apricot from 1983 to 2010 in Shache county of Kashi region of Xinjiang,the change of the first day on daily average temperature which steadily passed 5℃ and its impact on the blossom of apricot were studied by correlation and regression analysis. The results showed that the first day on 5℃ critical temperature had a significantly early trend from 1961 to 2010,and it had a fluctuating trend in the inter decadal. The latest day of the first day on 5℃ critical temperature appeared in 1970s and in 1980s,the earliest day appeared in 2001-2010 .The day of peak blossom of apricot also had a significantly early trend from 1983 to 2010,and an earlier trend in decadal was showed. It was 4 days earlier since 2001 than in 1990s and it was 5 days earlier since 2001 than from 1983 to 1990. The peak blossom of apricot and the first day on 5℃ critical temperature has significant positive correlation. Using the regression model,the peak blossom of apricot were forecasted from 2008 to 2010 and the 〖JP2〗relative errors of the above forecasted value were between -2% and +2%. 〖JP〗These results could provide a scientific basis for the local apricot blossom forecasts and the production and management of apricot in spring.

Key words: Shache, Steadily pass of 5℃ on the first day on daily average temperature, The blossom of apricot