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Table of Content

    31 October 2011, Volume 32 Issue 增刊
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    • 论文
    Variation Analysis of Shallow Geothermal of Dezhou City in Nearly 49 Years
    DAI Yu tian,PEI Hong qin,YANG Yu xia
    2011, 32(增刊):  1-4. 
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    By using monthly mean geothermal, precipitation and mean temperature of the depth of 0-20cm during 1961 to 2009 at Dezhou meteorological station, the variation of average shallow geothermal and the relationship between geothermal and precipitation as well as mean temperature were analyzed. The decadal variation of sequence elements is filtered with 9.2 times of smoothing techniques, demonstrating the trend. The results showed that the mean shallow geothermal in each season increased with the rate of 0.22～0.485℃ per 10 years, maximum in spring and autumn, minimum in summer. Annual mean shallow geothermal in each layer from 1960s to the middle of 1990s was the cold periods, and in the late 1990s was the warm period. The main reasons of impact on geothermal increasing were the increasing temperature and the decreasing precipitation. The results could provide a reference to utilizing climatic resources and adjusting planting division and distribution of agricultural production.
    Response of Phenophase of Woody Plants to the Climate Change in the Southwest of Shandong Province
    ZHANG Cuiying,SI Fengtai,YANG Xu,FAN Jinghao
    2011, 32(增刊):  5-8. 
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     Based on the phenological observation data of woody plants in the southwest of Shandong province from 1983 to 2009 and the statistical method, the response of wood plants phenophase to the climate change in the southwest of Shandong province were analyzed. The relations between phenophase of wood plants and average temperature, sunshine and precipitation were discussed. The results showed that（1）During the recent 27 years, the annual mean temperature increases gradually, the annual precipitation increases gradually, and the cumulative sunshine duration decreases gradually.（2）Bud opening period of populus tomentosa, salix matsudana and elms are ahead of time annually. The leaf expansion period, blooming period and phenophase are ahead of time accordingly. The plants growing season is prolonged annually.（3）Among all the climate factors that affect the phenophase of plants, the temperature is the most significant. The next is the sunshine, and the precipitation is the least significant. The period of plants bud, the blooming period and leaf expansion period have remarkable negative correlation with the mean temperature from January to April. As the temperature becomes higher, the sunshine duration increases, the phenophase of populus tomentosa in spring is significantly ahead of time, and the phenophase of salix matsudana and elms tends to be ahead of time. The precipitation has the least significant effect on the phenophase.
    Study of Climatic Type Change for Recent 50 Years in North China
    MA Jingjin, ZHANG Ziyin, LIU Hong
    2011, 32(增刊):  9-14. 
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    By Using the data of homogenization observational data from 1961 to 2009 in North China and the Coburn climate classification, the climatic change trend and the climatic type of North China are investigated. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2009, the average annual temperature in North China ranges from 0.44℃/10y, the annual precipitation is decreasing, and the reduce amplitude is 9.3mm/10y. The spatial trend showed that, there is a warming trend in North China, and the most obvious parts is in central and eastern Inner Mongolia and south of Hebei Province, which is more than 0.6℃/10y. The annual average temperature of 0℃ and 5℃ has a more visible phenomenon of the northward movement in the 2000s than the 1960s, especially the central region of Inner Mongolia. North China in recent 50 years have a greater volatility in the 250mm rainfall line, mainly from Xilinguole to Hulunbeier region in northeastern Inner Mongolia. It has a more obvious eastward movement for recent 10 years, indicating that the precipitation decreased significantly. By using the Coburn climate classification method, the North China region presents a warm dry climate trend from 1961 to 2009, some sites from the “nondry dry” type to the “aridsemi arid” climate types, mainly in central Inner Mongolia and northern Shanxi province, but the overall climate of North China region and climate type has no fundamental change.
    Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Change Nearly 40 Years in Datong
    HE Zhengmei
    2011, 32(增刊):  15-18. 
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    In order to understand the law of climate change and its evolution trend in Datong under the context of global warming, this paper investigated the characteristics of extreme temperature change in Datong for the period of 1971-2010 by using the daily temperature data from 8 stations. The results showed that the extreme maximum temperature and the annual mean temperature are in a significant linear increased trend, by rising 0.5℃ and 0.3℃ per 10 years respectively. The extreme minimum temperature linear trend was not obvious, but with a noticeable interdecadal variation. The linear decreased trend of extreme cold days below -25℃ was not obvious, and the extreme hot days above 33℃ were in a significant linear increased trend by increasing 1.3 days per 10 years. The annual averaged temperature diurnal range was obviously increased after the year of 2000.
    Analysis of the Trend of Climate Resources Change in Inner Mongolia
    LI Qiuyue, PAN Xuebiao,WANG Li, LI Kenan
    2011, 32(增刊):  19-23. 
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    Under the background of global change, climate resources have also changed correspondingly. There are different kinds of grassland and typical agro pasture ecotone in Inner Mongolia, which are vulnerable to climate changes. The research on the climate resources change is essential to the adaptation to climate change. Based on mean daily temperature, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation from 1961 to 2005,〖JP+1〗 the Moist Index was analyzed to discuss the change of climate resources in Inner Mongolia. Based on the analysis, we draw the conclusion that mean annual temperature had increased and accumulated temperature(T≥0℃) showed a significant rising trend in the past 45 years. The change of precipitation had presented a regional difference, which was increased in east and north east, while decreased in western Inner Mongolia. The area of desert, semi desert and meadow steppe increased, while the area of forest steppe was decreased. Under the background of climate change, the prolonged growing season had brought opportunities to agriculture and forestry production of the eastern Inner Mongolia, while desertification and vulnerability of grassland had got more severe than before, which had bad effects on production and living in Inner Mongolia.
    The Distributions of Yearly Minimum Temperature and Parameter Estimation in Fujian Province
    LIN Jing，CHEN Hui，CHEN Jia jin，ZHANG Chun gui，YANG Kai，LI Li chun
    2011, 32(增刊):  24-27. 
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    This article is based on the series of annual minimum temperature at 67 national weather stations in Fujian province from 1951 to 2010; analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of the minimum temperature, and utilized Gumbel distribution function to make simulations for annual minimum temperature in Fujian and applied two methods to estimation of parameters, i.e., squares method and Gumbel’s method of minimum likelihood. The fitting results showed that squares method is better then the Gumbel’s method, and the estimation of annual minimum temperature for different reappearance periods with the Gumbel’s method is better.
    Analysis on Characteristics of Climate Change in Recent 30 Yearsin Heilongjiang Province
    WANG Xiu fen, YANG Yan zhao, YOU Fei
    2011, 32(增刊):  28-32. 
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    Based on the meteorological data of annual mean temperature and precipitation of 30 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang province in recent 30 years(from 1980 to 2009)，this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of annual mean temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang province by using linear trend estimation and the accumulative anomaly methods, so as to reveal the climate change characteristics of Heilongjiang province. The results showed that: (1) the annual mean temperature in Heilongjiang in recent 30 years had a significant increasing tendency with seasonal and monthly diversity; the fastest warming season was winter, and the fastest warming month was January; the climate trend rate was 0.86℃/10y; (2) the annual precipitation are decreasing; its climate trend rate was-23mm/10y, and there were different climate trend in different ages and different seasons (the largest in the 90’s, the decreasing trend of annual precipitation was significant in summer and autumn, however in spring and winter, the annual precipitation showed a slight increasing trend); (3) the climate trends of annual mean temperature and precipitation were different in different regions; the increasing trend of annual average temperature was 〖JP2〗faster in south than in north; the percentage of precipitation decreasing was larger in the south of Songnen plain and the north of Sanjing plain.
    The Trend of Variation for Low Temperature Days over Beijing andIts Surrounding Area
    ZHANG Ying juan, MENG Wei, CHEN Da gang, GUO Wen li, WANG Ji
    2011, 32(增刊):  33-37. 
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    Using 21-station uniform minimum temperature over Beijing and its surrounding area, the thresholds of daily extreme low temperature were determined for different stations. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the frequency and intensity for extreme low temperature events and abrupt and periodic detection in winter were analyzed. The results showed that the extreme low temperature days have a trend of decreasing over Beijing and its surrounding area during 1958-2006. The highest value of the decreasing rate for extreme low temperature is located in Beijing, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai. It’s about -11d/49y in most areas. The frequency of the extreme low temperature in regional average decreased rapidly in the early of 1970s. In recent 49 years, the minimum temperature is higher than -20℃ over Tanggu district in Tianjin, the eastern area of Cangzhou and the southern area of Xingtai in Hebei Province. It is lower than -20℃ over the rest of the whole area. The linear gradient of the change of extreme minimum temperature is in northwest southeast direction. The increase trend of the variation for extreme minimum temperature is obvious. The increase extent over Xingtai in Hebei Province is the largest; it increases by 1.4℃/10y. The variability is greater than 1.0℃/10y in the direction of Chengde BeijingShijiazhuang. The frequencies of extreme low temperature in winter have the trend of decreasing since about 1980 and have an abrupt phenomenon, but haven’t the same abrupt time. The abrupt time occurred in 1980s for the frequencies of extreme low temperature over Beijing Tianjin and the southern part of Hebei province, while it occurred in the late 1970s over the northern and eastern area of Hebei province. It was also found that the vibration period of 7~9 years are displayed in all the areas. This research has important significance for winter installation and agricultural production.
    Impact of Light, Heat and Water Resources Change in Western Liaoning Province on Agricultural Production
    ZHOU Guang xue，LI Pu qing，ZHOU Xiao dong
    2011, 32(增刊):  38-41. 
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     By using conventional methods of mathematical statistics, this paper focused on the heat and precipitation resources change trends and its impact on local agriculture in the context of global warming in recent 50 years in the western Liaoning province on the basis of collected data from 1960-2009. The results showed that in recent 50 years lighting resources declined in western Liaoning province of 406h reduced annually. The annual average temperature and accumulated temperature ≥0℃ showed significantly increased trend of 1.7℃ up annually. The annual accumulated temperature increased 307℃·d. The annual precipitation showed an obvious decreasing trend of 62mm reduced, markedly fluctuating in the intergenerational scales. For light resource rich western Liaoning area, the reduced sunshine hours has not shown adverse effects; however the higher temperatures, decreased precipitation in the west of Liaoning present climate warming and drying trend, which will have a huge impact on the agriculture development in western Liaoning. In this paper, light, temperature, water were studied for improving the understanding of the impact of climate warming on agricultural production, and enhancing the ability to address climate change, therefore providing the basis for the agricultural structure adjustment.
    The Characteristics of Climate Change during the Frost Periods in Changdu over the Past 30 Years
    SUN Xiao guang,WANG Teng,LI Bai ping,LU Kui yong,JIANG Zi ping
    2011, 32(增刊):  42-46. 
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     By using some statistical methods and based on the frost and temperature observation data during the period of 1980-2009 from 7 meteorological stations in Changdu district, a time series was established and the characteristics of frost variations and its response to the temperature variation in Changdu district during the past 30 years were studied. The results showed that the first frost date was postponed significantly, and the last frost date occurred earlier and the frost-free period increased dramatically by 36 days over the past 30 years. The tendency has been more significant since the beginning of the 21st century. Temperature increase in Changdu is the major reason for the first frost date delaying, last frost date coming in advance, and the frost free period extending. The mean minimum air temperature and minimum ground temperature are the most important contributors to the delay of the first frost date and the early coming of the last frost date. 
    Changes in the Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in Rural Area of Western Liaoning Province in the Recent 50 Years
    LIANG Qun, ZHANG Guo lin, LIU Yue ying, BAO Hao
    2011, 32(增刊):  47-50. 
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    The data used in this study were collected from weather observation stations located in the rural area, around where nearly 50 years less changes in surroundings. The accumulated trends of temperature variation in the western Liaoning province was investigated by the serial correlation and climate tendency rate to provide literature for the research on the change and characteristics of climate, as well as the evaluation of the ecological environment in rural area. The results showed that increase range of the mean temperature in the rural area is found less than that of circumjacent cities. The mean temperature and the mean maximum and minimum temperatures increased considerably. The mean temperature increase remarkably and the series was correlated to the mean maximum temperature series significantly. Significant increase of the mean minimum temperature was not observed. The temperature increase was found in all of four seasons, and it is obvious in spring and autumn and especially in winter. The change of mean minimum temperature was not significant in the four seasons. The increase range of the temperature in the circumjacent cities is 2.6 times higher than that in rural area. Main change of the daily temperature occurred depends on maximum temperature, but did not increase significantly with daily minimum temperature. This analysis was conducted based on original data from the weather observation stations.
    Effects of Straw Mulching on the Crop Growth and Soil Quality of Red Upland Soil
    PENG Chun rui, CHEN Xian mao, QIAN Yin fei
    2011, 32(增刊):  51-54. 
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    In order to find out the effects of straw mulching of upland red soil in south China, and provide some theoretical evidence for improving the comprehensive production capacity of upland red soil, a field location experiment was carried out to study the effects of straw mulching on the changes of the soil quality and the crop growth. The 4-year results showed that straw mulching between the upland crop rows has the following advantages: (1) promoting crop root and plant growth, and improving the yield of crop (15%~20% crop yield higher than the Check); (2) elevating the soil fertility (the soil organic matter were increased by 1.8g/kg, the available N、K content were increased separately by 8% and 8.1% compared with the CK); (3) strengthening the soil biological activity (the number of the soil fungi and the bacteria were higher than the CK of 92.0% and 31.1% respectively; the activities of the soil urease, invertase and the catalase were increased by 37.6% , 19.9%, and 42.1% respectively compared with the CK); (4) improving the soil structure (soil bulk density were decreased by 0.022g/cm3, soil moisture was 4% higher than the CK when in drought). With the positioning time extending, crop yield and soil improvement as well as fertilizer increase is more effective.
    Annual Meteorological Assessment and Spatiotemporal Distribution of Eco environmental Quality in Fujian Province 2007-2010
    LI Li chun, PAN Wei hua, CHEN Jia jin, LIN Jing, WANG Jia yi
    2011, 32(增刊):  55-58. 
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    The annual eco environmental quality in Fujian province in recent years was assessed by fuzzy synthetic method, based on the data of ground meteorological observation and land use from 2007 to 2010. The spatiotemporal distribution was also analyzed by GIS soft and statistical inference. The results showed that: (1) annual eco environmental quality in different counties of Fujian was all fine with values between 0.47 and 0.67; (2) quality difference between each two years was significant as P<0.05 besides the difference between 2008 and 2010; (3) the spatial distribution presented an obvious regional trend that qualities of inland counties were better than coastal areas. The results provide important data support for the protection of local environment for the future.
    Distribution and Variation Characteristics of Seasonal Frozen Soil in Datong City
    LI Xiaozhen，HE Zhengmei，HAN Dengyun，ZHANG Fengxiang
    2011, 32(增刊):  59-62. 
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    By using records of frozen soil collected from 8 surface weather observation sites in Datong from 1961 to 2008, the date of Datong ground freezing and thawing, the number of freezing days, and the spatial and temporal distribution of maximum depth of frozen soil are analyzed. The results showed that in recent 40 years the freezing date has a delaying trend while the thawing date is ahead of the recorded. The number of ground freezing days has a corresponding decreasing trend and maximum depth of frozen soil decreases from northwest to southeast in successive years. The city’s average maximum depth change of frozen soil over the years has the overall decreasing trend but after 2000, compared with 1960s to 1980s there is an increasing trend.
    Simulation of the Agricultural meteorology Factors Change in Karst Desertification in Guizhou Province by Using Regional Climate Model (RegCM3)
    LUO Yuxiang, CHEN Juan, ZHENG Xiaobo
    2011, 32(增刊):  63-68. 
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    The phenomenon of the Karst desertification not only impacts the ecological environment but also alter the distribution of agriculturalmeteorology factors. Regional climate model (RegCM3) was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes on local and regional climate over the Karst desertification area in Guizhou. With the resolution of 20km×20km, two numerical simulation experiments were conducted. One was a control experiment with more vegetation land use and the other is the desertification in 2000. Preliminary analysis indicated that the desertification over the area of Guizhou caused different climate effects in different regions and seasons. In the most parts of the desertification area the month precipitation decreased from 20mm to 80mm, and it increased in some other area. In summer and autumn, surface air temperatures increased obviously in the area of the Karst desertification. 〖JP2〗In dry season the relative humidity decreased about 2%～8%,but did not change obviously in rainy season in the desertification area. The evapotranspiration reduced a little, and the evaporation increased distinctly in summer in the desertification area.
    Analysis on Climate Characteristics of Coastal Fog in Fujian Province
    MA Zhiguo, ZHANG Chungui,CHEN Jiajin, LIN Jing
    2011, 32(增刊):  69-73. 
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    According to the data of the visibility observations of the last 10 years in 18 stations along the coast of Fujian province, temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the fog were analyzed, including monthly, seasonal and annual variations and other features. The main conclusions are: the number of occurrence of fog along the coastline of Fujian province in the last 10 years showed an increasing trend. The largest climate tend rate value is in Chongwu station of 2.4091 times per year. The fog occurred mainly in spring and winter, occupying 97.86% of the total number of occurrence times, rare in summer and autumn. The fog of the year was a bimodal trend of variation, mainly from Feburary to April. The fog mainly dominated in the morning and gradually dissipated after 10 am, and in afternoon and evening the fog appeared less likely. South central coastal areas of Fujian province was the foggy area, especially in Chongwu, Xiamen and Dongshan. It is important to study climate characteristics of coastal fog in Fujian for monitoring and early warning of sea fog.
    Analysis of Characteristics of Acid Rain and Its Relationship to Atmospheric Environment in Suzhou
    TANG Lijuan,YANG Jinbiao,HAN Juejing,ZHAO Yunwu,YUAN Weihong
    2011, 32(增刊):  74-78. 
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    In order to investigate the condition of acid rain and its relationship with atmospheric environment, statistic and correlation analysis and numerical simulation have been used. The results showed that，among 352 samples, average of which was 4.5; 8% of the samples was not acid rain with pH value larger than 5.6, in the left 92% (which is acid rain), severe acid rain was amount to 67%. Annual average variations of pH were slight, while there was monthly and seasonal difference. Conductivity K changed sharply between 11.9 and 284 μS·cm-1, which meant there was a severe variation of total ion content in atmospheric precipitation. Different precipitation pointed to different pH value and K value: acid heavy rain and rain storm corresponded to pH value less than 5.6, light and medium rainfall corresponded to pH value over 5.6; K value decreased with the increasing of precipitation, which illustrated there was a stronger adsorption of small rain drops to pollutants. There was a negative relationship between pH value and mass concentration of air pollutants. Model simulation for a case analysis of acid rain in March 22 of 2010 demonstrated air pollutant could propagate over long distance, and the high content of ion in sand dust led to increase of K value in precipitation. 
    Characteristic of Climate Change and Its Impact Analysis in Estuary Wetland of Minjiang River
    YANG Kai，CHEN Binbin，LI Lichun，CHEN Jiajin，LIN Jing
    2011, 32(增刊):  79-82. 
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    Four conventional stations were selected to analyze the characteristics of the climate change from 1961 to 2010 in estuary wetland of Minjiang river during the recent 50 years, as well as its impacts on the wetland. The results showed that the temperature of Minjiang river estuary wetland presented an increasing trend significantly. The precipitation of the wetland considerably fluctuated and increased，but not significantly. The regional thermal index of the wetland showed an increasing trend significantly, and the regional moisture index showed an increasing trend in the mass, but the extent of increase was lesser. Overall, the climate would tend to be warmer and wetter in Minjiang river estuary wetland, but the climate change trend was less obvious. The results provided important references for the conservation, rational exploitation and utilization of the wetland.
    Effects of Application of Controlled release Polyolefin coated Urea on Yield and Nitrogen Utilization Rate of Rice
    YUAN Manman, YE Shuya, LIU Feng, LI Min, GUO Xisheng
    2011, 32(增刊):  83-87. 
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    Field plot experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of application of controlledrelease polyolefin coated urea on yield and nitrogen utilization rate of rice. The results showed that application of controlled release polyolefin coated urea could increase yield and nitrogen utilization rate of rice significantly. The highest yield and economic benefit of rice was the treatment with amount of 70% controlled release polyolefin coated urea and 30% urea applied which was added up to 180kg/ha nitrogen as base fertilizer, the yield increased by 5.6%~30.5% than other treatments. While the highest nitrogen utilization rate of rice was the treatment with amount of 60% controlled release polyolefin coated urea as base fertilizer and 40% urea applied as top dressing which was add up to 126kg/ha nitrogen, the yield of which was not lower than urea applied. Therefore application of controlled release polyolefin coated urea could decrease the amount of nitrogen fertilizer, ensuring the yield of rice, and protecting the environment.
    Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change during the Past 44 Years on Rice Production in Guizhou Plateau with CERES Rice Model
    HU Jiamin, LIN Zhonghui, XIANG Hongqiong, XU Yongling, GU Shuhong
    2011, 32(增刊):  88-92. 
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    In order to research the effect of climate change on the yield and planting of rice, firstly, using the meteorological data from 2004 to 2005 and the experimental data of rice conducted by Guizhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences as the input data of CERESRice model, the genotype parameters of rice cultivar Qianliangyou are obtained by calibration and validation processes. Then, based on the calibrated genotype parameters and the meteorological data from 1962 to 2006, the growth and development processes of rice in Guizhou during the past 44 years under the same soil and management practices is dynamic simulated. The results showed that the decreasing trend of total radiation and the rice yield are not significant during the past 44 years. The weak trend of delayed anthesis time was also not significant under the conditions of the descending trend during the summer and the ascending trend of accumulated thermal time during the growth season. The result of the simulated treatments of sowing date indicates that seeding time in practice at present is suitable during the past years, and sowing date of rice in Guiyang can be advanced a few days corresponding to chilling damage in the autumn.
    Effects Evaluation of Meteorological Condition on Rice in 2009 in Fujian Province
    MA Zhiguo，CHEN Jiajin，XU Zonghuan，YANG Kai，LIN Jing，LI Lichun
    2011, 32(增刊):  93-96. 
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    The temperature (mean and low), precipitation and sunlight of 2009 in Fujian province have been analyzed, and analysis of the main effects of climatic conditions on the rice (early, middle and late) crops throughout the year of growth and development was also conducted. The results showed that the overall condition of agricultural climate resources is good,  〖JP3〗because of adequate sunlight and higher temperature, although there is impact of agricultural meteorological disasters, but in comparison, more good than harm. It is conducive to the development of crop growth. During crops growth and development, the main agricultural meteorological disasters are low temperature, typhoons, rainstorms, droughts, etc. These agricultural meteorological disasters brought direct or indirect economic losses, in which the severe disaster losses are caused by typhoons and rainstorms. This research provides reference to disaster reduction and disaster evaluation.
    Climatic Analyse and Division of  C.henryi Based on GIS in Nanping City
    SHEN Changhua, CAO Lixing
    2011, 32(增刊):  97-99. 
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    On the basis of researches of Nanping climate analysis and C.henryi study, combining with local topography, geomorphology and GIS spatial analysis as well as multilayer methods, merging with research results of fruit tree expert and agricultural meteorologists, using climate data from 1961 to 2000 and Digital Elevation Data, the research of climate division and assessment of C.henryi planting in Nanping was conducted. The results might provide scientific gist for growth layout of C.henryi.
    Effect of Climate Factors on Cotton Growth, Yield and Quality in the
    Southwest of Shandong Province
    ZHANG Cuiying, HAO Zhenhua, JING Anhua, FAN Jinghao
    2011, 32(增刊):  100-103. 
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    Based on the cotton data of the plant protection department and meteorological data of the meteorological department from 1980 to 2009 in the southwest of Shandong province, the possible effect of climate factors on cotton were analyzed, and this provides reference for high cotton production in the local area. Using professional data processing system DPS, several most dominant meteorological factors that affect cotton growth, yield and quality are chosen, and its correlation and effects were analyzed. The results showed that the cotton lint percentage had a significant negative correlation to the rainfall in July. Sufficient sunshine in August is better for cotton boll splitting and opening. The cotton bolls weight severely decreases, when the rainfall is high in September. Moreover, it increases when the mean temperature rises in May and August. The weight of cotton bolls has positive correlation with the sunshine duration, i.e., the longer the sunshine duration, the heavier the cotton bolls weight. Appropriate rainfall is beneficial to the cotton fiber length. On the other hand, the cotton fiber length reduces if the rainfall is too much. The yield of raw cotton and seed cotton weight has a significant positive correlation to the annual mean temperature, which means that the cotton yield increases when the temperature is higher.
    Change of the First Day on Daily Average Temperature ≥5℃ in Shache and Its Impact on the Blossom of Apricot
    FU Weidong,YANG Qiulian, LI Lan
    2011, 32(增刊):  104-107. 
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    By using daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2010 and phenological data of Apricot from 1983 to 2010 in Shache county of Kashi region of Xinjiang,the change of the first day on daily average temperature which steadily passed 5℃ and its impact on the blossom of apricot were studied by correlation and regression analysis. The results showed that the first day on 5℃ critical temperature had a significantly early trend from 1961 to 2010,and it had a fluctuating trend in the inter decadal. The latest day of the first day on 5℃ critical temperature appeared in 1970s and in 1980s,the earliest day appeared in 2001-2010 .The day of peak blossom of apricot also had a significantly early trend from 1983 to 2010,and an earlier trend in decadal was showed. It was 4 days earlier since 2001 than in 1990s and it was 5 days earlier since 2001 than from 1983 to 1990. The peak blossom of apricot and the first day on 5℃ critical temperature has significant positive correlation. Using the regression model,the peak blossom of apricot were forecasted from 2008 to 2010 and the 〖JP2〗relative errors of the above forecasted value were between -2% and +2%. 〖JP〗These results could provide a scientific basis for the local apricot blossom forecasts and the production and management of apricot in spring.
    Review on Research of Meteorological Conditions and Managing Measure for Wine Grape Growth in Ningxia
    HAN Yingjuan,ZHANG Lei,WEI Jianguo,CAO Ning,DUAN Xiaofeng,YANG Yun
    2011, 32(增刊):  108-112. 
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    Learning from the research findings of other wine grape planting regions in Northwest China and combining the observation data in every growth stage of wine grape in Qingtongxia,Yongning,Luhuatai and the climate characteristic of Ningxia,the suitable and unsuitable meteorological conditions in every growth stage of wine grape in Ningxia and the measures that can be taken to reduce the negative influence were summarized. This is helpful to the scientific management of wine grape in Ningxia.
    Response of Crop Yield to Climate Change in the Eastern Inner Mongolia
    HOU Qiong，LI Yang，BAO Songlin
    2011, 32(增刊):  113-117. 
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    The evolutionary regularity of moisture and temperature during crop growing season and the response of regional crop yield to climate change were analyzed by using the data of meteorological observation and the statistics of bean and the main crop yield of 50 years (1955-2005) from 25 meteorological stations in grain production area of eastern Inner Mongolia.The results indicated that：（1）Nearly 50 years the regional temperature humidity matching pattern was changed，and the tendency on climate warming and drying were especially obvious in recent 20 years; （2）Precipitation was the key meteorological factor affecting crop yields while the lack of rainfall in spring or summer,and the high temperature in growing seasons were the main limitation factor to crop production; （3）Each crop had its own most sensitive factors. For instance，for wheat and millet was precipitation,while high temperature in summer for corn,and temperature difference in July to August and precipitation in April to May for potato.（4）The model calculated results indicated that the average maximum temperature or temperature difference increase of 1℃ in growing season could cause the meteorological yield decreasing by 102~192kg/ha for corn，by 87kg/ha for soybean，but increasing by 55.5kg/ha for potato production. In conclusion，the climate tendency of warming and drying could cause the decline of regional agricultural production.
    The Effect of the Climate Change on Potential Productivity of Winter Wheat and Summer Maize in the Huang Huai Hai Plain
    HUANG Chuanrong, LIU Hong
    2011, 32(增刊):  118-123. 
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    The WOFOST crop growth model was applied to estimate the potential photo temperature productivity and photo temperate precipitation productivity of winter wheat and summer maize,based on a database containing weather,soil,crop varieties information from Huang Huai hai plain.The production potential of the annual the rate of change of the temporal and spatial variation was analyzed.The results showed that the range of phototemperature productivity of winter wheat and summer maize were 6433.5~10592.67kg·ha-1,7786.17~11185.5kg·ha-1,and the mean was 4083.24kg·ha-1,7528.21kg·ha-1,which can be used as reference value of average maximum yield in irrigated fields.The range of photo temperate precipitation productivity of winter wheat and summer maize were 1559.17~6724kg·ha-1,6088.33~9053.17kg·ha-1,and the mean is 4083.24kg·ha-1,7528.21kg·ha-1,accounting for a photo temperature productivity of 45.3% and 80.8%,respectively,which can be used as the reference value of average maximum yield in rained fieldIn general,for winter wheat,the phototemperature productivity and phototemperatureprecipitation productivity had increased 541.64kg·ha-1,1061.15kg·ha-1,during the past 44 years,while for summer maize,reduced 840.22kg·ha-1,320.59kg·ha-1.Because of the vast plain,the changes of potential productivity were different.By revealing the potential yield and its space difference,this paper could provide support for management improvement and yield increase.
    The Impact of the Weather Condition on the Jatropha Curcas Quality
    XIONG Hua，GU Xiaoping，YU Fei，LOU Yanping
    2011, 32(增刊):  124-129. 
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    The quality is the most important indicator to evaluate whether a species is successfully introduced.The appraisal of the Jatropha curcas quality included oil rate,characteristic of seed oil and diesel.Based on weather data of different site and time and the correlation data of the Jatropha curcas seed,this paper studies the impact of different weather condition on the Jatropha curcas quality by statistics and contrast analysis.The results showed that the quality responses of Jatropha curcas to temperature and sunshine are more obvious.The Jatropha curcas is more drought tolerant and hot habitatpreferredAdequate light brings high seed oil.Heat temperature conditions are the most important climatic and ecological environmental factors to affect the geographical distribution of Jatropha curcas,and the key conditions to affect the level of Jatropha curcas seed oil content,which ultimately affect the quality of Jatropha curcas
    Impacts of Extreme Precipitation Events on Climate Potential Productivity in Huaihe River Basin
    ZHANG Xuhui，HUO Jinlan，XIE Xiaoping
    2011, 32(增刊):  130-134. 
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    The evapotranspiration climate productive potential (TSPV) was calculated based on Thornthwaite Memorial model and the data from 127 meteorological stations during 1961 to 2008 in Huaihe river basinThe temporalspatial distribution regularity and change trend of TSPV were analyzed in this paper.The results indicated that TSPV variation was accordant with the variation of annual precipitation,which had zonal decrease in latitudinal direction.Both extreme precipitation and the number of heavy rainfall days have a significant positive correlation with TSPV.In most areas,TSPV was positively correlated with heavy rainfall intensity and annual times of 5 over days of continuous rainfall,which had a negative correlation with annual times of 15 over days of no rainfall in northwest part of Huaihe river basin and partial eastern coastal areas
    Dynamic Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Model Based on GIS
    ——A Case Study of Yuncheng City in Shanxi Province
    LUAN Qing，MA Yali，WU Yongli，LI Weiwei，XIANG Dong
    2011, 32(增刊):  135-139. 
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    Based on the census data of winter wheat yield and meteorological observation data from 1982 to 2008, the information of meteorological elements in cultivated land was extracted by ArcGIS. A ten day dynamic winter wheat yield estimation model from county scale to region scale was established on SPSS11.5. These models were tested by winter wheat yield data of 2008. The results showed that the relative error absolute value of county scale model was between 0.2% and 20.6%, and the estimation accuracy of county scale model was low. The relative error absolute value of region scale model was between 0.3% and 4.7%. The error is lesser while the stability is high. Therefore it was suitable for actual business operation.
    The Dynamic Prediction of Mid season Rice Yield Based on Key Meteorological Factors
    TANG Yuxue, LUO Zizi, FAN Li, YANG Yuanyan
    2011, 32(增刊):  140-143. 
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    Based on the data of rice yield, the 10 day data of average air temperature, precipitation, and average sunshine hours in rice’s growth period from 1986 to 2009 in Chongqing, a dynamic prediction model was established for rice yield prediction by using statistic method. By the 5 year moving average method, the rice yield trend is isolated. Based on correlations between the meteorological yield of rice and the ten day meteorological elements in growth period, the dynamic prediction model was established for rice yield by using the key meteorological factors of midMarch mean air temperature, lateMay sunshine hours, mid July mean air temperature, mid July precipitation, mid July sunshine hours, late July mean air temperature, late July precipitation, early August mean air temperature. Rice yield was predicted dynamically with the model. Simulation with the model from 1986 to 2009 showed that average accuracy was more than 96%, and the accuracy was more than 90% in 95% of annual predictions.Prediction with the model for 2010 showed that the accuracy was 91.5% to 92.8%. The dynamic prediction model could be applied to quantitative prediction of rice yield, which could basically meet the demand for business services.
    Climatic Adaptability Division of Vegetable in Guiyang
    HUANG Jumei，GU Xiaoping，YU Fei
    2011, 32(增刊):  144-147. 
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    Vegetable is one of the most important nonstaple foodstuffs in life, depending much on the climate resource, especially low temperature and heat has a great deal of restrictions on vegetable planting, species layout and cultivation technique. The practices verified that temperature, disease harms and the elevation bring better reaction to vegetable cultivation discrepancy in the region. Through investigation and analysis, the index of agriculture climatic adaptability, agriculture morbidity and elevation on several superior vegetable varieties of White lotus, Lettuce, Radish is defined. Through comprehensive analysis of index of climate adaptability, morbidity and altitude adaptability, the climate adaptation zoning of Guiyang’s main vegetable varieties is achieved. The results showed that except for some of the high altitude area, most parts of Guiyang are suitable for cultivation of white lotus while planting range suitable for lettuce and white radish is less than the white lotus, north and southeast part sub optimum, the rest suitable for planting. This paper can be used as reference to the zoning for the full and reasonable use of climatic resources of vegetables in Guiyang, and to the adjustment of the layout of the vegetable industry according to local conditions.
    Estimation of Atmospheric Transmittance in Thermal Infrared in
    Guiyang Band from Landsat on MODTRAN 4
    GU Xiaoping, MENG Weiliang, YU Fei,WANG Bei, AO Qin
    2011, 32(增刊):  148-152. 
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    The interference on the atmospheric transmittance of thermal infrared band, generated by atmospheric water vapor content, is one of the main factors for retrieving land surface temperature from remote sensing images. In Guiyang, the climatic characteristics of low temperatures and high water vapor content in the summer half year increases the interference. To retrieve land surface temperature in Guiyang from Landsat satellite data and improve retrieval accuracy, in this paper, we simulated the variation of atmospheric transmittance with atmospheric water vapor content in Landsat ETM+ thermal infrared band at 22℃ on MODTRAN 4, and fitted a set of piecewise equations for calculating atmospheric transmittance in the band from atmospheric water vapor content. After simulation algorithms and applications, the results showed that calculation error of the piecewise equations was about 0.9~1.3℃, which could meet the error requirement of retrieval accuracy in Guiyang. In the practical application of retrieving land surface temperature in Guiyang, there was about 2.7℃ error between retrieval results and temperature calculated on weather station data, we needed to find out other errors and further improve the retrieval accuracy.
    GIS Application to the Analysis of Lowtemperature Damage of Loquat in Fujian
    WANG Jiayi, CHEN Jiajin, LI Lichun, XU Zonghuan
    2011, 32(增刊):  153-156. 
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    A study about scientific planting of loquat in Fujian province was conducted in order to reduce the frost disaster. First, indexes about the freezing grade of loquat were identified according to the relationships among loquat growth, damage degree, annual minimum temperature, and the aspect and slope of planting region. By using the geographical information data of 68 meteorological stations, spatial distribution model of freezing damage indexes of loquat was established, and the 50m×50m resolution spatial distributions were simulated by GIS. Therefore, distribution rules of loquat in Fujian province were analyzed by using GIS spatial analysis.
    Numerical Simulation of Regional Climate Effects of the
    Rocky Desertification Areas in Guizhou
    YAN Xiaodong,GU Xiaoping,WANG Bei,GU Shuhong
    2011, 32(增刊):  157-160. 
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    In the terrain, a threedimensional coordinate system of static equilibrium atmosphere  ground coupled model was created. The thermodynamic and dynamic process of complex terrain and vegetation was taken into consideration in this model. Compared with other medium and small scale model, the aspect and slope effects are all considered in detail in the establishment of the radiation balance equation and energy balance equations between the surface and the vegetation canopy. The results showed that the atmosphere ground coupled model could better simulate the space distribution trend of meteorological elements of rocky desertification in Zhenfeng county, a typical area of rocky desertification. The temporal change trend of the temperature slightly raised first and then descended as the moderate rocky desertification areas became into strong rocky desertification areas. Then while the strong rocky desertification areas constituted to become super strong rocky desertification areas, the temperature showed a sharply downward trend. 
    Research on the Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture Based on MODIS Data in Xinjiang
    YAO Yanli,FU Weidong,XING Wenyuan,YANG Qiulian
    2011, 32(增刊):  161-164. 
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    Based on simultaneous MODIS data and the soil relative humidity data from April to August in 2005 in Xinjiang, models of soil relative humidity was established. The models were also based on the NDVI of season change and the correlation analysis of soil moisture in different arrangement as well as the difference in temperature by day and night. All the models passed the F test of the significance level of 0.01. The results showed that the precision of soil moisture was above 81% by using the thermal inertia method before June, but the precision was not satisfactory between June and August.
    GIS based Eco climatic Zoning of Taizhou Bayberry
    ZHU ShouYan, YIN XianLong,JIN Zhifeng, HUANG Jingfeng
    2011, 32(增刊):  165-168. 
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    According to the biological characteristics of red bayberry, combined with years of experimental research, the climatic and ecological zoning index has been screened out and the spatial analysis models of corresponding bayberry plant indicators, longitude, latitude and altitude has been established. With the 1∶〖KG-*2〗250000 terrain data of Zhejiang province,the digital elevation model (DEM) and digital soil maps, using the recent established 10km mesoscale weather station data, ecological indicators of climate in the evaluation unit is much closer to the actual situation of Bayberry Park. The resolution of evaluation unit is 100m×100m, which greatly improved the division results in the practical production applications. The most suitable growing areas are mainly concentrated in the midwest Xianju, Linghai, Huangyan, Tiantai and other hilly areas; suitable growing areas mainly are distributed in the western 500-800m semihigh mountain; unsuitable areas, are mainly in the mountains above the altitude of 800m and islands, and other plain rice field area. It is hoped that the study will contribute to providing scientific basis for the planing of Taizhou characteristic plants and the sustainable development of bayberry industry. 
    Agrometeorological Forecast System in Nanning
    HUANG Zhongxiong, LU Fei, MA Yi, HUANG Zhiling,LU Baoying
    2011, 32(增刊):  169-173. 
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    Nanning agrometeorological forecast system is developed by using SQL Server 2005, Microsoft visual studio 2005 and C# program language. All kinds of agrometeorological information such as agrometeorological background materials, agrometeorological knowledge and the previous agrometeorological service products can be introduced into the database of the system in any format. The materials in the database can be read, deleted, copied or replaced. The system also has other practical functions. Since the system is easy to be modified, it can be improved by using professional forecasters' experience. The system can help agrometeorological forcasters making high quality agrometeorological service products and improving their ability in agrometeorological forcast. The system also has popularization and application value.
    Dynamic Monitoring Analysis of Expansion of  Spartina alterniflora  in Fujian
    PAN Weihua，CHEN Jiajin，ZHANG Chungui，LIN Jing
    2011, 32(增刊):  174-177. 
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    The information of inshore Spartina alterniflora was extracted by using the Landsat images of 1999/2000 and 2006/2007 in Fujian, and the dynamical change of  Spartina alterniflora was analyzed by combination with the GIS data and statistics during the past seven years. The results showed that the decision tree classifier was well applied to extract the information of Spartina alterniflora from the remote sensing images and acquire higher classification precision. In addition, the dynamic monitoring results revealed that the Spartina alterniflora had expanded rapidly and replaced many breed water areas and beaches in seven years from 1999 to 2006 which should be paid attention to, and essential actions should be taken to protect the water bodies and beaches.
    The Fine Distribution of Climate Resources and Zoning Study of Nanling in
    Northern Guangdong Province
    XUE Lifang, WANG Chunlin, SHEN Shuanghe
    2011, 32(增刊):  178-183. 
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    On the basis of climatic data collected from three dimensional climate observation stations in Nanling during 2008 to 2010, distribution of meteorological elements and differences between south and north slopes were analyzed. By spatial analysis of GIS, raster distributions of main meteorological elements of Yangshan county and Ruyuan county with grid resolution of 100m×100m were worked out. The hierarchical division of Nanling could improve the utilization of mountain climate resources and optimize agricultural production structure, then ultimately promote economic growth in mountain areas.
    Wind and Hailstorms Disaster Risk Assessment of Crop in Fujian
    Province Based on Information Diffusion Theory
    CHEN Jiajin, WANG Jiayi, YANG Kai, LI Lichun, LIN Jing, MA Zhiguo,XU Zonghuan
    2011, 32(增刊):  184-187. 
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    Combined with area information of disasteraffected crops in Fujian province for nearly 31 years from 1978 to 2008, and in order to conduct an objective analysis of the risk of disaster losses caused by wind and hailstorms to crops in Fujian, the normal information diffusion method of calculation was applied to this research. The results showed that affected area and disaster area caused by wind and hailstorms in Fujian are relatively small, and the overall hazard index showed a downward trend. Years of affected index ≥3% and disaster index ≥1% were all before 1990. The risk probability of the affected and disaster decreases with the level of disaster risk increased. The risk of affected is greater than the risk of disaster. When averaging the risk of affected and disaster, i.e. when crop area of affected and disaster caused by wind and hailstorms occupies 1.77% and 0.65% respectively of the total crop area, the risk of affected and disaster is once in 1.8 years and once in 1.7 years respectively. Compared with actual state of the affected and disaster over the years, risk assessment results are more consistent with the actual situation.
    Frost Disaster Risk Assessment of Crop in Fujian Province Based onInformation Diffusion Theory
    LIN Jing, CHEN Jiajin, WANG Jiayi, LI Lichun, MA Zhiguo, YANG Kai, XU Zonghuan
    2011, 32(增刊):  188-191. 
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    Combined with area information of disaster affected crops in Fujian province for nearly 31 years from 1978 to 2008,and in order to conduct an objective analysis of the disaster and the variation trend of the effect the frost disaster brought to agriculture,the normal information diffusion method of calculation was applied to this research.The results showed that affected area and disaster area caused by frost in Fujian are relatively small,and the inter annual fluctuations of the affected index and the disaster index are relatively consistent.The risk probability of the affected and disaster decreases with the level of disaster risk increased.The risk of affected is greater than the risk of disaster.When averaging the risk of affected and disaster,ie when crop area of affected and disaster caused by frost occupies 2.34% and 1.23% respectively of the total crop area,the risk of affected and disaster is once in 2.6 years and once in 2.3 years respectively.Compared with actual state of the affected and disaster over the years,risk assessment results are more consistent with the actual situation,demonstrating that application of this model is feasible to the risk assessment on natural disasters when lack of information.
    Major Meteorological Disasters and Defensive Countermeasures of WinterJujube Fruit Growth in Huanghua Region
    LIU Jinyu,CUI Wanli,SUN Ailiang
    2011, 32(增刊):  192-195. 
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    Meteorological data such as temperature，precipitation，wind speed and weather phenomena in Hebei Huanghua during 1990-2009 were used to analyze the basic characteristics of meteorological elements of Chinese Jujube Dongzao in various stages of growing season by statistical methods Comparative analysis and D value analysis methods were used to find out the main meteorological disasters during the growth period of Chinese Jujube Dongzao in Huanghua.The research results showed that meteorological disasters are mainly high temperature,strong winds,continuous rain,hail and other weather disasters in the growth periodIn this paper,defensive countermeasures of the main meteorological disasters during period of growth of jujube are put forward in order to achieve profit while avoid loss,ensuring high yield and quality.
    Risk Assessment of the Flesh Rotten and Fruit Cracked Damage in theMature Stage of Cangzhou Gold Silk Jujube  in Hebei Province
    WANG Qiong，HE Xuan，CHANG Zhikun 
    2011, 32(增刊):  196-198. 
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    By using two meteorological factors of precipitation and sunshine as the study object, and to disperse the value of the risk level of precipitation and sunshine duration and calculate the disaster risk estimation caused by rainfall and sunlight, this research is conducted on the basis of fuzzy math and information diffusion theory and precipitation and sunshine hours in mid September to mid October from 1990 to 2009, combined with the survey of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube in the mature stage. The results showed that, in the period of mid September to mid October the risk probability of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube caused by precipitation was once in 4 to 5 years. Deviation of sunshine does not cause the disaster risk of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube. In addition, by using precipitation estimation of ≥80mm as the disaster threshold of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube, the results determine the period of disaster prevention and timely harvest for jujube farmers, conducive to disaster prevention and mitigation
    Effect Evaluation of Low Temperature and Snow Disaster  in Winter 2009/2010 in Inner Mongolia
    YANG Litao，GU Runyuan，DI Ruiqi
    2011, 32(增刊):  199-202. 
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    Under global warming’s background, it was unusual cold winter in recent years in 2009/2010 in Inner Mongolia. Varying degrees of temperature, snow and other weather disasters happened in most of the region. In order to complete the disaster’s defense work, the low temperature and snow disaster and the influence in 2009/2010 year in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was studied. In this paper, the extreme minimum temperatures, cold and snow conditions and its occurrence times were counted with mathematical statistics. The results showed that serious disasters brought heavy losses to animal husbandry production and the facility agriculture. Meanwhile, the disaster caused large scale snow and ice up on the road, adverse to road transport and hindering people’s regular production and life.
    GIS/AHPbased Risk Zonation of Hail Disaster in Weifang
    YANG Yi,CHEN Zhenhong,WANG Xiaoyu,YU Fei
    2011, 32(增刊):  203-207. 
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    According to previous studies, among all possible measures to avoid and alleviate natural disaster, it is the simplest and most effective method to improve the natural disaster management level to the risk management level through risk zonation on the basis of the scientific research. The spatial information technology was used for risk assessment on historical hail disaster of Weifang in the study, in order to provide scientific basis on disaster prevention and reduction. Based on the AHP, weighted summation evaluation and range standard normalization methods, the paper built the assessment model of hail disaster in Weifang using the nine weather stations data of month by month hail hazard from 1971 to 2000. By indexes integration of the dangers of hazard factors, the vulnerability of hazardaffected body and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity using ArcGIS9.3, hail disaster risk zonation of Weifang was obtained. The results showed that, annual average number of hail days increase with the elevation increases. The highest risk regions mainly distribute in the northwest part of city, attributed to its high incidence and weak capacity for disaster reduction. More than half of the city has a higher risk level and the lowest risk regions are located in the centre, which are basically tallies with the history experimental data of hail disaster.
    Research on the Harmfulness, Prevention and Control of Main Agricultural
    Weather Disaster in Southwest China
    LIU Dinghui,LIU Yonghong,XIONG Hong,XU Fuxian,PANG Liangyu,WANG Mingtian,PAN Kaiwen,CHEN Shanghong
    2011, 32(增刊):  208-216. 
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    Southwest China has a typical fragile agricultural weather, where agricultural weather disaster occurs excessively. Meanwhile, the ability to prevent agricultural weather disaster is too weak to reduce the harm. So, it plays a great role in increasing production and farmers’ income, and ensuring grain security, environment security and agricultural sustainable development. Based on the comprehensively analysis of the kinds and its harm of agricultural weather disaster, this paper indicated that the key problem of agricultural weather disaster prevention and control is：(1)enhance the collaboration between agriculture department and weather department to increase the of precision and practicability of forecast;(2)intensify the integration and innovation of technology to break through the comprehensive prevention and control technology under multi agricultural weather disaster occurred at the same time; (3) reform the mechanism of demonstration to decrease the cost of agricultural weather disaster prevention and control. 
    Key Elements Analysis on Low Temperature Disaster of Bananas in
    South Asia Tropic Based on Grey System Theory
    XU Zonghuan，XIE Qingrong，WU Renye，LIN Liangfa
    2011, 32(增刊):  213-217. 
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     The grey system theory was used to analyze low temperature disaster in Zhangzhou during 20th-27th December 1999 which caused a reduced banana production rate. The results indicated that extreme lowtemperature was the most important factor of the disaster. The longer the low temperature continued, the more serious the harm was. With low temperature factors, the most relevancy degree was the number of days during which daily minimum temperature slid ＜5.0℃ for each 5 days. Based on the established pattern, annual average extreme low temperature of accuracy of 50m×50m grid resolution was inferred. According to the given criterion and combined geographical information with low temperature, it showed distribution characteristics of the frost damage of low temperature of bananas in Zhangzhou. It provided scientific decisionmaking proposal for the government to arrange banana production and for farmers to utilize advantaged condition to avoid disaster. 
    Response of Droughts in the Context of Climate Change in Fangxian County
    FENG Ming，ZHANG Qian，HU Ying，CHEN Xuan
    2011, 32(增刊):  218-221. 
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    In the context of climate change, droughts index was calculated by using precipitation and temperature data in Fangxian county in 50 years（1961-2010）. The droughts were discussed and the effects on agricultural yields were analyzed through utilizing the index in Fangxian county. The results showed that droughts index change has an increasing trend in crop growth season and growing seasons before winter. The main reason lies in that temperature change showed increasing trend and precipitation showed decreasing trend. The droughts index change showed a reducing trend in summer, and the main reason is that temperature change showed a decreasing trend while precipitation showed an increasing trend. The droughts index change will affect food crop output, wheat yield and rice yield in Fangxian county. The research can be used as a scientific basis for the adverse effects study of climate change to agriculture. 
    The Impact of Spatial and Temporal Evolution in Climatology of Spring Frost on
    Spring Tea in Jiangsu Province
    WANG Jun，KUAI Zhimin，ZHANG Xuhui
    2011, 32(增刊):  222-226. 
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    The occurrence and evolution of spring frost in Jiangsu province follows certain laws, and it has obvious impact on the spring tea production. In this paper, we analyzed the evolution trend of spring frost during 48 years by using observation data of 35 weather stations in Jiangsu province from 1961 to 2008. Meanwhile, using factual observation data of the exploration period of Suzhou Dongting Biluochun tea from 1995 to 2008, and the observation data of Wuzhong weather observation station in the corresponding time period, adopting system analysis method, we established the model for calculating the time of tea exploration through temperature index. The results showed that, in nearly 48 years in the Jiangsu province, the average date of final frost came significantly earlier and the number of spring frost days showed a significant reduction in the trend; special night frost occurred before 1981, and late frosts appeared before 1995; the days of end frosty and spring frost were occurred with abrupt climate change in the late 1990s; climate warming accelerated the bud germination and the germination speed, but the speed of early tea picking period is not faster as the speed of early final frost. Therefore, the likelihood of frost damage in the spring tea harvest decreased gradually, and the spring frost damage on spring tea in Jiangsu province showed a reduction tendency. Activity accumulated temperature ≥10℃in February and first half of March, and the sum of average temperature between the latter half of February and the first half of March are the two key factors to determine the tea picking period. 