Abstract: The WOFOST crop growth model was applied to estimate the potential photo temperature productivity and photo temperate precipitation productivity of winter wheat and summer maize,based on a database containing weather,soil,crop varieties information from Huang Huai hai plain.The production potential of the annual the rate of change of the temporal and spatial variation was analyzed.The results showed that the range of phototemperature productivity of winter wheat and summer maize were 6433.5~10592.67kg·ha-1,7786.17~11185.5kg·ha-1,and the mean was 4083.24kg·ha-1,7528.21kg·ha-1,which can be used as reference value of average maximum yield in irrigated fields.The range of photo temperate precipitation productivity of winter wheat and summer maize were 1559.17~6724kg·ha-1,6088.33~9053.17kg·ha-1,and the mean is 4083.24kg·ha-1,7528.21kg·ha-1,accounting for a photo temperature productivity of 45.3% and 80.8%,respectively,which can be used as the reference value of average maximum yield in rained fieldIn general,for winter wheat,the phototemperature productivity and phototemperatureprecipitation productivity had increased 541.64kg·ha-1,1061.15kg·ha-1,during the past 44 years,while for summer maize,reduced 840.22kg·ha-1,320.59kg·ha-1.Because of the vast plain,the changes of potential productivity were different.By revealing the potential yield and its space difference,this paper could provide support for management improvement and yield increase.

Key words: Climate change, Photo temperature productivity, Photo temperate precipitation productivity, Winter wheat, Summer maize