Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

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Development Process of Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity Based on Crop Models

QIN Peng-cheng1,YAO Feng-mei1,CAO Xiu-xia2,ZHANG Jia-hua3,CAO Qian1(1.College of Earth Science/key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics,Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;2.Institute of Cotton Research,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Anyang 455004;3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081)   

  • Online:2011-04-10 Published:2011-04-10

Abstract: Simulation modeling is a particularly important tool for estimating the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity,so as to attract much attentions and applications.The development process of modeling of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity was given,including the modeling of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity by changing climate parameters artificlally,linking to climate scenarios,and integrating with other models for compositive simulations.Basing on the analysis on the key issues of making choice between empirical and mechanistic models,field and region scale,determined and probabilistic climate scenarios,the indeterminacy and problems existed and prospects were given.

Key words: Climate change, Climate change, Agricultural impacts, Modeling