Meteorological Forecasting Model of Rice Blast Occurrence Potential in Jiangxi  Province

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.015

Abstract

Abstract: Based on rice blast monitoring data and observed meteorological data in Jiangxi province from 1981 to 2010，the relationship between rice blast degree and meteorological factors was analyzed and the meteorological forecasting model of rice blast occurrence was established in different stages， by using sign correlation method. The results showed that there was positive correlation between seedling blast of early rice and mean temperature， precipitation， sunshine hours in April， while negative correlation between that and air relative humidity. However， there was negative correlation between leaf blast of early rice and mean temperature， precipitation and sunshine hours from second ten days of May to the first ten days of June， while positive correlation between that and air relative humidity. There was negative correlation between neck blast of early rice and mean temperature， sunshine hours from the first ten days of June to the first ten days of July， while positive correlation between that and precipitation， air relative humidity. The occurrence probability of late rice seedling blast increased with the increase of high humidity days and rainy days. There was negative correlation between leaf blast of late rice and mean temperature， sunshine hours from second ten days of August to the first ten days of September， while positive correlation between that and precipitation， air relative humidity. However， there was positive correlation between neck blast of late rice and mean temperature， air relative humidity in September， while negative correlation between that and precipitation， sunshine hours. Based on the correlation among rice blast occurrence and meteorological factors and the absolute difference value between the same sign rate and the opposite sign rate， the rice blast occurrence potential meteorological index were calculated and the meteorological forecasting model was established. The accuracy rate was 60%-75% by testing substitution， and the accuracy rates of severe grade was higher than slight grade.

Key words: Sign correlation, Rice blast, Occurrence potential, Meteorological forecasting model, Jiangxi province

GUO Rui ge， LIU Wen ying， WU Hao. Meteorological Forecasting Model of Rice Blast Occurrence Potential in Jiangxi Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(03): 364-371.

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Meteorological Forecasting Model of Rice Blast Occurrence Potential in Jiangxi Province

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