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20 June 2015, Volume 36 Issue 03

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Temporal and Spatial Variation Analysis of the Main Extreme Climate Index inHebei Province

CAO Xiang hui，LONG Huai yu，ZHANG Ji zong，LEI Qiu liang，WU Shu xia，LIU Hong bing

2015, 36(03):  245-253.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.001

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Based on the data of daily maximum temperature，daily minimum temperature，daily mean temperature and daily precipitation of 142 stations in Hebei province from 1961 to 2010，the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperature and precipitation events was analyzed by using regression analysis and Kriging.The results showed:（1）from the perspective of spatial distribution of extreme temperature index，the extreme maximum temperature and summer days index showed a decreasing trend from south to north gradually and the high value centers were located in Handan，Xingtai，Shijiazhuang，Hengshui and Handan，Xingtai，Shijiazhuang，Hengshui，Langfang，Cangzhou.However，frost days in northern area were higher than that of south and the high value center was mainly located in the north of Zhangjiakou.Extreme minimum temperature，warm days and continued cold period did not show obviously spatial distribution pattern.From the perspective of variation trend，summer days，warm days，extreme minimum temperature and extreme maximum temperature of most regions showed an increasing variation trend.Frost days showed a decreasing variation trend and the variation trend of continued cold period was not obvious.（2）From the perspective of the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation index，the 6 extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious distribution pattern.The daily maximum precipitation，strong precipitation，rainstorm days，continuous dry days and continuous humid days showed sporadic distribution.Precipitation intensity generally showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest.From the variation trend，the daily maximum precipitation，strong rainfall，rainfall intensity，continuous a wet day and rainstorm days of most regions decreased and continuous dry day showed an increasing trend in 1961-2010.From the changing trend of extreme temperature and precipitation index，Hebei province tended to be warm and dry.Therefore，agricultural production should take the corresponding countermeasure to adapt to the changing climate．

Spatio temporal Variability of Water Deficit in HuangHuaiHai Plain During 1961-2013

LI Xiang xiang，JU Hui，YAN Chang rong，LIU Qin，LI Ying chun

2015, 36(03):  254-262.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.002

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Water shortage is recognized as the most serious problem for agriculture production in Huang Huai Hai plain （3H plain） and the changing characteristics for water resources in context of climate change remains unknown yet. Based on measured meteorological data obtained from 41 stations located in 3H plain，potential evapotranspiration was calculated by applying PenmanMonteith equation，and water deficit was described as the difference of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration at the same period. Finally，the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of water deficit in four seasons over 3H plain were analyzed by using Kendall Theil robust line method，MannKendall trend test and Morlet wavelet function. Results showed that multiyear average water deficit was negative in most part of 3H plain and varied between 650mm and 100mm with the spatial variation pattern of decreasing gradually from south to north. Among four seasons，spring was presented as the most serious water situation with the shortage of 21061mm in multi year average，which was higher than any other seasons. Trend analysis of seasonal multi year average water deficit among 41 stations generally shown an upward trend except in autumn where only stations surrounding Jing Jin Ji district increased. Annual water deficit variation among 6 sub regions was-391.45，-510.11，-560.42，-427.21，-284.19 and-21.63mm in respectively and this variation was mainly induced by precipitation. For seasonal difference in 6 subregions， spring amounts for the highest water shortage period which occupied annual water shortage at 56.4%， 51.7%， 40.6%，59.7%，59.3% and 66.1%， respectively. Spring water deficit showed higher period，lower period alternately with the main period of 28 years for these six regions，10 years for region V and VI. The seasonal and spatial difference of water deficit in 3H plain indicated a high drought risks with spatio temporal variability，especially in spring season. Thus，effective climate changing adoption needs water resources be operated rationally and agriculture irrigation arrangements with seasonal．

WOFOST Model Based on Soil Moisture Driven and Its Adaptability

WANG Rui，LI Ya fei，ZHANG Li juan，WANG Jian lin，WANG Zhi wei

2015, 36(03):  263-271.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.003

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The crop growth model of WOFOST is used to simulate crop growth by estimation of soil relative humidity based on daily precipitation. It is difficult to set different scenarios of soil drought levels by changing daily precipitation, because of the randomness of daily precipitation. This weakness imposed restrictions on the simulation of crop growth under different water stress, and also had bad effects on the accuracy of the simulation. In the current study, a revised WOFOST crop growth model directly based on soil relative humidity was developed. The Compaq Visual Fortran 6.5 was applied as the development platform, and the source code of WOFOST model was modified by Fortran language, which replacing the driving file of daily precipitation with soil relative humidity. The revised WOFOST crop growth model was used to simulate corn growth under the stages of seedling emergence- jointing and tasseling-mature in the conditions of water stress. The results were compared with that under natural precipitation in Xiajin agricultural meteorological station in the Shandong Province in 2013. The results showed that the accuracy of model obviously improved by using the revised model in the output results of the fresh leaf dry weight, fresh stem dry weight, vegetative organs dry weight, total weight of the ground material and leaf area index. Furthermore, the corn growth under different soil drought levels was simulated by setting different water stress scenarios due to the stability of soil moisture. The revised WOFOST model is useful to evaluate the impact of different drought levels on corn growth, and to determine the indexes of corn growth and development.

Study on the Lighting Performance of Openroof Venlo Greenhouse

QI Zhenyu，DING Wenya，WU Yunrong，ZHOU Qiang

2015, 36(03):  272-277.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.004

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Under different weather (sunny and cloudy) and different window-opening proportions conditions, the photosynthetically active radiation intensity （PAR）was tested inside and outside of two greenhouses (A is a Venlo greenhouse with a open-roof, B is a Venlo greenhouse with a roof vent window) in order to study the lighting performance. The result showed that under sunny and cloudy conditions, average lighting transparent rate of the open-roof greenhouse were 53.7% and 52.1%, while those significantly higher than the greenhouse B under the same conditions. Whether sunny or cloudy conditions, the lighting transparent rate of the open-roof Venlo greenhouse increased as proportions of window (roof) increased. And there was no significant change in the greenhouse B. It showed that the open-roof Venlo greenhouse had higher lighting transparent rate, while opened window (roof) reduced solar radiation blocking. Under sunny and cloudy conditions, the mean value of PAR distribution uniformity coefficient (PDUC) of the open-roof Venlo greenhouse were 0.893 and 0.916, which were lower than the value of the greenhouse B under the same conditions. As proportions of window (roof) increased, the PDUC of the open-roof Venlo greenhouse reduced, of which variable amplitude on a sunny day was larger than cloudy. At same time, the PDUC of the greenhouse B had no obvious change. This showed that opened window of the open-roof Venlo greenhouse had blocked the direct solar radiation near the gutter, which lead to a lower PDUC of the open-roof Venlo greenhouse.

Study of Suitable Frequency of Temperature Observation in the Chinese Solar Greenhouse

GAO Qi，WEI Ruijiang，WANG Xin，ZHU Huiqin

2015, 36(03):  278-286.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.005

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According to the external temperature characteristics of greenhouse crop growing season in Gaoyi County during 2008-2010, 2008, 2009 and 2010 were defined as the warmer, the colder and the normal year type, respectively. Based on the microclimate temperature observation data per 10min during the greenhouse crop growing season in Gaoyi County from 2008 to 2010, the arithmetic mean value calculated by every 10min observation data in a day was regarded as the actual mean temperature. The arithmetic mean values calculated by every 20min, 30min, 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, 4 hours observation data respectively were regarded as the daily mean temperature. The mean absolute error(MAE), standard deviation(SD) and the accumulated temperature relative error(R) in the observation period between the arithmetic mean values calculated by every 20min, 30min, 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, 4 hours observation data respectively and the actual daily mean temperature were analyzed and the significance was test by t-test. The suitable method and frequency of temperature observation in greenhouse was confirmed by the index of P<0.05. MAE, SD and R were applied for evaluating the calculation effect of these methods. The smaller was the MAE, SD and R, the better was the effect. The results showed, (1)when the observation interval was less than 4 hours, the daily average temperature calculated was not significantly different with the actual，MAE≤0. 19℃，SD≤0.24℃, R≤1.1%，so the method was suitable for greenhouse environment; Moreover, the shorter of the observation interval and the higher of the observation frequency, the better was the effect of the average temperature calculated. When the observation interval was 4 hours, the accuracy of the results has certain risks. (2)The daily mean temperature calculated by six compositions of four times observation data was significantly different with the actual, so the method should not be used in observation experiment. (3)The daily mean temperature calculated by the maximum and the minimum temperature was significantly higher than the actual value, therefore, the calculation method should not be used in observation experiment. (4)The daily mean temperature calculated by the improved method of using the 7：00, 10：00, 13：00, 16：00, 19：00 and 23：00 observation data was not significantly different with the actual，MAE≤0.24℃，SD≤0.30℃，R≤1.4%, and the observation time in night was also reduced, therefore, the method can be used in the actual production. (5)Overall, at least six times in a day observation, the daily mean temperature calculated may be representative of the actual mean temperature.

Reduction in Electric-energy Consumption for Cooling by Introducing Outside Cold Air in a Plant Factory

XIN Min，TONG Yuxin，YANG Qichang，WEI Lingling，WANG Jun，BIAN Zhonghua

2015, 36(03):  287-295.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.006

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The commercial use of the plant factory (PF) with artificial light is limited because of its high operation cost. Thus, in order to reduce electric-energy consumption for cooling and the operation cost, two PFs were used in this study, in the experimental PF, a coupling control method by introducing outside cold air with fan together with air conditioner (AC) was employed for cooling, while in the control PF, only AC was used. Null CO2 concentration difference method to maintain inside CO2 concentration at the same level as that of atmosphere was used in both PFs. The effects of introducing outside cold air on the air temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), CO2 concentration, electric-energy consumption, coefficient of performance (COP) of AC and fan, yield and content of photosynthetic pigments of lettuce were investigated. The results showed that: (1) inside air temperature could be maintained at the suitable range (light period:23-27℃, dark period:18-22℃) for lettuce growth by introducing outside cold air. VPD in the experimental PF (light period:1.3-2.7kPa, dark period:1.2-1.9kPa) was higher than that in the control PF (light period:0.3～1.3kPa, dark period:0.3-0.5kPa). Null CO2 concentration difference method could maintain the inside CO2 concentration as the same level as that of atmosphere. (2) The total electric-energy consumption was around 10.8% lower in the experimental PF than that in the control PF. (3) When the outside air temperature ranged from -4 to 5℃, the sensible heat factor ranged from 0.4 to 0.9, COP of the fan of 19.3-28.9 was higher than that of the ACs (5.3-14.7 in the experimental PF; 5.8-14.9 in the control PF). (4) There were no significant differences on the yield and content of photosynthetic pigments of lettuce in two PFs. The results indicate that PF cooling by introducing outside cold air can be considered as an efficient method for reducing its electric-energy consumption.

Effects of Different Nitrogen Levels on Δ13C values，Physical Characters and Chemical Compositions of Flue-Cured Tobaccos Leaves

YANG Jinhan，NI Xia，YI Ke，CHEN Xu，ZHENG Wu，YU Haitao，LU Wenlin，ZHA Hongbo，GONG Shujing，YANG Tian，WANG Juan，CHEN Zongyu

2015, 36(03):  296-305.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.007

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Taking Flue-cured tobacco K326, Yunyan87, Yunyan97 and Honghuadajinyuan as experiment materials, planted under natural environment condition with three different nitrogen treatments. The chemical composition of the 11th position tobacco leaves and their δ13C value, leaf mass per unit area and the photosynthesis pigment was analyzed. The results showed that the mean δ13C value of K326 and Yunyan97 with different Nitrogen treatment was higher than that of Yunyan87 and Honghuadajinyuan, particular the Yunyan 97. The tobacco alkali content of Yunyan97 was optimum among four varieties with low nitrogen treatments, moreover, the total sugar content, the reducing sugar content, the sugar alkali content and NIT/NIC of Yunyan97 were within optimum scope and in a good coordination. Evaluation on all of flue-cured tobacco was conducted according to the δ13C values describe, Yunyan97 had obvious advantage and stronger adaptive ability, which was suitable to plant under conventional fertilizer. The results could provide reference to fertilizer treatments and varieties selecting for flue-cured tobacco.

Effects of Red and Blue Spectra on Nutritional Quality of Toona sinensis Seedlings

LIU Su hui，ZHANG Li wei

2015, 36(03):  306-312.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.008

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Red light(RL), blue light(BL), red+blue light(R/BL) generated by light-emitting diode were applied, and white light(WL) generated by fluorescent lamps was used as control. The authors studied the effects of different light qualities on nutritional quality (amino acids, Vc, nitrate, crude fiber, total flavonoid and tannin) of Toona sinensis sprouts. The results showed that the treatments of BL and R/BL increased significantly amino acid content of Toona sinensis seedlings compared with the white light treatment, while the RL had the opposite effect. The three spectral quality treatments had the superiority in promoting synthesis and accumulation of Vc in Toona sinensis seedlings, the increase in turn were BL>RL>R/BL. The three treatments of light quality inhibited the accumulation on nitrate of Toona sinensis seedlings, and the strongest inhibition was RL treatment. The crude fiber content of Toona sinensis seedlings was raised under RL, but reduced under BL. Compared with the control, BL and R/BL treatments increased the total flavonoid content of Toona sinensis seedlings, while also reduced the content of tannin. To summarize, BL and R/BL treatments could raise amino acids, Vc and total flavonoid of Toona sinensis seedlings, and could reduce the content of nitrate, crude fiber and tannin at the same time. Therefore, BL and R/BL light could promote nutritional quality of Toona sinensis seedlings.

Parameter Estimation in Pre-flowering Rice Phenological Models Using Nonlinear Parameter Optimization

SUN Hu sheng，YANG Shenbin，WANG Yingping，HU Ning，JIANG Xiaodong，WANG Mengmeng，LI Shuai，JIANG Lixia

2015, 36(03):  313-322.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.009

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Rice phenological model contains a nonlinear dependence between rice phenological prediction and model parameters and thus estimation of these parameters from measurements is the most critical step for the model application. These parameters include critical temperatures, critical photoperiod, and photoperiod sensitivity. For transplanting rice, the transplanting shock is another parameter should be adjusted, which is used to introduce the influence of transplanting on rice development. Previous reports showed that the critical temperatures and two photoperiod-related parameters are strongly correlated and their calibration is still unsuccessful. In this paper, the model-independent parameter estimation software PEST was used to estimate these parameters. We try to improve the calibration by introducing a method to find optimal values in their parameter space. This method firstly introduces prior information for each parameter and then adjusts initial parameter values by overall ?1% recursive changes to their prior values. With all combinations of initial parameter values, PEST calculates objective function values and looks for an optimal combination of parameter values according to the objective function value is the lowest or not. Here, phenological observations of rice variety Liangyoupeijiu were used to parameter estimation. And, for simplicity, the parameter estimation for pre-flowering phenological model was tested as an example. The pre-flowering model was performed applying two different temperature response functions, i.e. BETA function and a bilinear function (BILN). Hence, the model with BETA function was called as MBETA and the model with BILN was named as MBILN. The results showed that the parameters uncertainties were effectively reduced through introducing the prior information. The obtained 95% confidence intervals of parameter values were significantly reduced. Highly correlated parameters were not perceived in the parameters correlation matrix. By adjusting initial parameter values, a series of objective function values were obtained through each calculation. In these series, the objective function values of MBETA and MBILN finally converged at similar minima, i.e. 11.71 and 11.82，respectively. Under the minima, optimal combination of parameter values for each model was obtained and used in validation. It shows that the optimal parameter values are different between models, but the validation results are consistent. The difference between optimal values was mainly attributed to the different temperature response functions which compete with photoperiod effect in minimizing objective function values. From the validation, flowering stages simulated by the two models are all correlated with that observed at a significance of 0.01. While, the panicle initiation stages simulated by MBILN showed a correlation with that observed at the 0.05 level. The simulation errors were caused by the estimation of panicle initiation stages. This is due to the great difficulty in estimating the beginning of rice photoperiod. However, the above results indicate that the incorporation of prior information obviously enhanced the reliability and efficiency of optimization. This approach not only improves the estimation for insensitive parameters, but also depresses the high correlation between parameters. Meanwhile, the method by adjusting initial parameter values significantly reduced the probability in converging at local minima and improved the reliability in optimization. As a result, the optimization method presented in this paper is able to improve the efficiency and reliability in phenological parameters estimation. The method is promising in application for calibration of parameters in crop models and models in agricultural ecology.

Simulation of Grain-filling of Spring Maize (Zhengdan 958) in Northeast China

GUO Chunming， REN Jingquan， QU Simiao， LI Zhonghui

2015, 36(03):  323-330.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.010

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The grain-filling model of spring maize was established by richards equation with the experiement data of Baicheng from 2011 to 2013. The grain-filling characteristic was analyzed based on the confirm and calibration of the model. The results showed that universal grain-filling model passed the 0.01 level of significance test which the days after flowering（model I）, active accumulated temperature（model II）, effective accumulated temperature above 10℃ （model III）were independent variable and the dry weight of 100-grain was dependent variable. Measured and simulated value scattered around ?10% with 1:1 line, which NSE（Nash-Sutcliffe index） and RSR（the rate of root-mean-square error to standard deviation） performenced very well. Model I showed that the active grain-filling duration of spring maize in northeast China was 46d and mean grain-filling rate was 0.84g·d-1. Grain-filling rate reached maximun(1.23g·d-1) when the days was 32d after flowering, and dry weight was 15.17g. The contribution rate of middle stage of grain-filling was 65.60%, early stage and late stage was 10.50%, 23.90%，respectively. Model II and model III showed that the active accumulated temperature and effective accumulated temperature of grain-filling were 1043.5℃·d and 679.1℃·d. Grain-filling rate reached maximun when the active accumulated temperature and effective accumulated temperature were 782.8℃·d and 473.3℃·d after flowering. Contribution rate of middle stage of grain-filling was 67.68%. Three models showed that the contribution rate of middle stage was high while early and late stage were relatively low. So, the most dry weight of spring maize was completed in the middle stage of grain-filling.

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster Based on Value at Risk Theory in Gansu Province

WANG Zhilan， WANG Jing， WANG Jinsong

2015, 36(03):  331-337.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.011

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he loss rate of agricultural drought was calculated， based on the data of crops area covered by drought disaster， affected by drought disaster， and no harvest by drought disaster，and crops yield data as well. The best probability model of drought loss rate was established， according to the goodness of fit test result. The agricultural drought disaster risk in Gansu province was assessed referring to value at risk （VaR） from economics and different levels of drought risk. The results showed that the effect of drought on agricultural production in Gansu province from 1950 to 2011 was relative limited， and the loss rate of agricultural drought was no more than 30%， with an average of 10%. The max loss rate occurred in 1995， with the rate of 26.8%. The best probability model of drought loss rate was generalized extreme value （GEV）model in Gansu province in last 62 years. The agricultural loss rate was 18.8% if facing drought once of ten years， 25.7% facing drought once of 50 years，and 28.3% facing drought once of 100 years．

limatic Characteristics and Prediction of Autumn Low Temperature During Late Rice Growth Stage in Hunan

LUO Boliang，LI Yizhi

2015, 36(03):  338-345.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.012

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Autumn Low Temperature （ALT） is low temperature weather processes which daily average temperature during September less than or equal to 20℃ and continues more than three days， meanwhile it is main agricultural meteorological disasters which affect the double season late rice production in Hunan province. Based on daily temperature data from meteorological stations in Hunan during 1961-2013， the climate changing characteristics of beginning date of ALT in different regions of Hunan were analyzed， and predict model of beginning date of ALT was built by using the mean generating function based on the time series of beginning date of ALT from 1961 to 2010. The results showed that beginning date of ALT in different regions presents significant interdecadal variation during last 53 years. Average beginning date of ALT appears in later period of late September. The earliest time of northern and central Hunan appears in the beginning of early September， and which of southern Hunan appears in the late of early September. The latest time of northern Hunan appears in the early stage of the middle of October， and which of southern and central Hunan appears in the late of middle October. Frequency of occurrence of ALT which affects the double crop late rice production in southern Hunan met twice in three years， which in central Hunan met once in two years and in southern Hunan met twice in five years. The results of predict model of beginning date of ALT which had been built by using the mean generating function showed that the historical fitting rate was 92% in northern and central Hunan and which was 94% in southern Hunan. The predict results during 2011 to 2014 showed that the mean generating function model has strong predictive ability for beginning date of Autumn Low Temperature in Hunan．

Impact of Climate Change on Pure Premium Rating of Drought Index Insurance for Maize in Northeast China

YANG Fan， LIU Bu chun， LIU Yuan， YANG Xiao juan

2015, 36(03):  346-355.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.013

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Based on the daily meteorological data of 68 stations in Northeast China during 1961-2010， daily reference evapotranspiration during maize growing duration was calculated by using PenmanMonteith formula. Combined with daily precipitation， a indicator crop water deficit （CWD） was designed to indicate drought risk. The whole analysis period was divided into three 30year period （1961-1990，1971-2000 and 1981-2010）. The probability distribution function of CWD was built and critical value of CWD was calculated with cumulative probability ≤5%,≤15% and ≤25%，respectively. These values were set as a division criterion of severe drought，moderate drought and slight drought and used to calculate pure premium rate according to different time scales. CWD was proved to be able to indicate drought risk of maize well in Northeast China. The investigation showed that drought risk of whole region increased from east to west during the period of 1961-2010，and the western region was taking drought risk throughout these years. Most stations showed a drought aggravation and the number of stations was decreasing from severe drought to slight drought. Pure premium rate based on CWD was close to the results based on yield loss （correlation coefficient was 0.893），and it performed a decreasing trend after increasing in time series. Therefore，fair and scientific premium rate should be calculated considering the impact of climate change and appropriate adjustments should be made according to drought risk of each period．

Occurrence of Aphis sp. on Lycium barbarum L. and Its Meteorological Grades Forecast in Ningxia

LIU Jing， ZHANG Zong shan， MA Li wen， HUANG Feng， WEI Jian guo， ZHANG Yu lan

2015, 36(03):  356-363.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.014

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The initial growth temperature of aphis sp.was defined according to 2 feeding experiments under different temperature treatments in the HGP280H type climatic cabinet，the equation between growth rate of aphis sp.and temperature was established based on the initial growth temperature.The breeding date of each generation and annual total generations from 1991 to 2012 were estimated by using the equation，taking 50℃ as aphis sp.initial growth threshold temperature.The meteorological indicators and prediction model on aphis sp.hazard grades were determined，according to the statistic relationship between population density and its meteorological factors from 2006 to 2008，and verified by using investigated data in Zhongning in 2012.The result showed that the average initial occurring date of aphis sp.was on March 27 and ending date was in later of October.Aphis sp.could breeding 21-23 generations each year，of which 3-12 generations was serious damaged.Drying and sunshine was benefit to them growth and development，and rainy and high humidity inhibited them development.The accuracy of the model and meteorological indicators was 88.2% and the accuracy of offsite observed data was 100%.Those models and meteorological indexes were suitable for monitoring aphis sp.growth state and forecasting hazard grades．

Meteorological Forecasting Model of Rice Blast Occurrence Potential in Jiangxi  Province

GUO Rui ge， LIU Wen ying， WU Hao

2015, 36(03):  364-371.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.015

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Based on rice blast monitoring data and observed meteorological data in Jiangxi province from 1981 to 2010，the relationship between rice blast degree and meteorological factors was analyzed and the meteorological forecasting model of rice blast occurrence was established in different stages， by using sign correlation method. The results showed that there was positive correlation between seedling blast of early rice and mean temperature， precipitation， sunshine hours in April， while negative correlation between that and air relative humidity. However， there was negative correlation between leaf blast of early rice and mean temperature， precipitation and sunshine hours from second ten days of May to the first ten days of June， while positive correlation between that and air relative humidity. There was negative correlation between neck blast of early rice and mean temperature， sunshine hours from the first ten days of June to the first ten days of July， while positive correlation between that and precipitation， air relative humidity. The occurrence probability of late rice seedling blast increased with the increase of high humidity days and rainy days. There was negative correlation between leaf blast of late rice and mean temperature， sunshine hours from second ten days of August to the first ten days of September， while positive correlation between that and precipitation， air relative humidity. However， there was positive correlation between neck blast of late rice and mean temperature， air relative humidity in September， while negative correlation between that and precipitation， sunshine hours. Based on the correlation among rice blast occurrence and meteorological factors and the absolute difference value between the same sign rate and the opposite sign rate， the rice blast occurrence potential meteorological index were calculated and the meteorological forecasting model was established. The accuracy rate was 60%-75% by testing substitution， and the accuracy rates of severe grade was higher than slight grade.