Prediction Model of Winter Wheat Development Stages Based on Meteorological Factors

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.010

Abstract

Abstract: The forecast for winter wheat development stages is one of the main contents for agro-meteorological services. The correlation of the accumulation rate of meteorological factors including sunshine hours, temperature, water and winter wheat growth rate during 1991-2010 at Nangong station, which is located in south central of Hebei province, was analyzed, and winter wheat growth rate forecasting models for different development stages were established. The results showed that sunshine hours and moisture were not the limited factors of winter wheat growth rate in this region, but temperature was a dominant factor affecting the rate of winter wheat development. The correlation coefficient between effective accumulated rate and the growth rate of turn-green stage to other stages was improved significantly than that of any single stage (P＜0.05). There were significant correlations between the effective accumulated temperature before winter and the growth rate of turn-green to heading stage (P＜0.05). The model simulated results of maximum absolute error of the development rate forecast for four stages of winter wheat based on temperature was 7 days, and the mean absolute error was 3 days, 2.8 days, 3.3 days, 2.2 days from turn-green to jointing stage, turn-green to heading stage, turn-green to milk-ripe stage, and turn-green to maturity stage, respectively. The model could meet the needs of agro-meteorological operational services.

Key words: Winter wheat, Effective accumulated temperature, Accumulated rate, Development period model

KANG Xi-yan, DONG Hang-yu, YAO Shu-ran. Prediction Model of Winter Wheat Development Stages Based on Meteorological Factors[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 465-471.

References

[1] 王建林. 现代农业气象业务[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2010: 138-148.
Wang J L. Modern agrometeorological operation[M]. China Meteorological Press, 2010: 138-148. （in Chinese）
[2] 徐寿军, 顾小莉, 庄恒扬, 等. 我国麦类作物生长模拟研究进展[J]. 内蒙古民族大学学报（自然科学版）, 2006, 21(3): 288-293.
Xu S J, Gu X L, Zhuang H Y, et al. Advance in growth simulation of wheat crops in China[J]. Journal of Inner Mongolia University for Nationalities, 2006, 21(3): 288-293. （in Chinese）
[3] Sharpley A N, Williams J R. EPIC-erosion/productivity impact calculator: 1. model documentation[R]. U. S. Dept. Agric. Tech. Bull. , 1990: 1768.
[4] Williams J R. The EPIC model[R]. Temple: Blackland Research Center, the Texas A & M University, USA, 1997.
[5] Kiniry J R, Sanderson M A, Williams J R, et al. Simulating Almo switchgrass with the Almanac model[J]. Agron. J. 1996, 88: 602-606.
[6] Ritchie J T, Otter S. Description and performance of CERES-Wheat: a user-oriented wheat yield model[M]. US: USDA-ARS, ARS-38, 1985: 159-175.
[7] 陈华, 张立中, 方娟. 小麦发育动态模拟模型的初步研究[J]. 中国农业气象, 1995, 16(1): 1-4.
Chen H, Zhang L Z, Fang J. Preliminary studies on simulation models for wheat development[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 1995, 16(1): 1-4. （in Chinese）
[8] 冯利平, 高亮之, 金之庆, 等. 小麦发育期动态模拟模型的研究[J]. 作物学报, 1997, 23(4): 418-424.
Feng L P, Gao L Z, Jin Z Q, et al. Studies on the simulation model for wheat phenology[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 1997, 23(4): 418-424. （in Chinese）
[9] 高亮之, 金之庆, 黄耀, 等. 水稻计算机模拟模型及其应用之一: 水稻钟模型-水稻发育动态的计算机模型[J]. 中国农业气象, 1989, 10(3): 8-10.
Gao L Z, Jin Z Q, Huang Y, et al. Rice Clock ModelⅠ: a computer simulation model of rice development[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 1989, 10(3): 8-10. （in Chinese）
[10] 涂修亮, 胡秉民. 小麦物候发育的模拟研究[J]. 湖北农业科学, 1999, (3): 13-14.
Tu X L, Hu B M. Simulant study on wheat phenological development[J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences, 1999, (3): 13-14. （in Chinese）
[11] 严美春, 曹卫星, 李存东, 等. 小麦发育过程及生育期机理模型的检验和评价[J]. 中国农业科学, 2000, 33(2): 43-50.
Yan M C, Cao W X, Li C D, et al. Validation and evaluation of a mechanistic model of phasic and phenological development of wheat[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2000, 33(2): 43-50. （in Chinese）
[12] 刘铁梅, 曹卫星, 罗卫红. 小麦抽穗后生理发育时间的计算与生育期的预测[J]. 麦类作物学报, 2000, 20(3): 29-34.
Liu T M, Cao W X, Luo W H. Calculation of physiological development time and prediction of development stages after heading[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2000, 20(3): 29-34. （in Chinese）
[13] 冯秀藻, 陶炳炎. 农业气象学研究[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1991: 95-116.
Feng X Z, Tao B Y. Agricultural meteorological study[M]. China Meteorological Press, 1991: 95-116. （in Chinese）
[14] 国家气象局. 农业气象观测规范[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1993: 8-11.
China Meteorological Administration. Agrometeorological monitoring specification[M]. China Meteorological Press, 1993: 8-11. （in Chinese）
[15] 贾银锁, 郭进考. 河北夏玉米与冬小麦一体化种植[M]. 北京: 中国农业科学技术出版社, 2009: 69-85.
Jia Y S, Guo J K. Integration planting of summer corn and winter wheat in Hebei[M]. China Agricultrual Science and Technology Press, 2009: 69-85. （in Chinese）
[16] 赵峰, 千怀遂, 焦士兴. 农作物气候适宜度模型研究[J]. 资源科学, 2003, 25(6): 77-82.
Zhao F, Qian H S, Jiao S X. The climatic suitability model of crop[J]. Resources Science, 2003, 25(6): 77-82. （in Chinese）
[17] 宇振荣, 毛振强, 马永良. 冬小麦及其叶片发育的模拟研究[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2002, 7(5): 20-25.
Yu Z R, Mao Z Q, Ma Y L. A simulation study on thermal requirement for growth of winter wheat and its leaves[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2002, 7(5): 20-25. （in Chinese）
[18] 霍治国, 刘荣花, 姜燕, 等. 中华人民共和国气象行业标准QX/T81-2007 小麦干旱灾害等级[S]. 北京: 中国气象局, 2007.
Huo Z G, Liu R H, Jiang Y, et al. Meteorological industry standard of the People's Republic of China QX/T81-2007 disaster grade of drought for wheat[S]. China Meteorological Administration, 2007. （in Chinese）
[19] 魏瑞江, 张文宗, 康西言, 等. 河北省冬小麦气候适宜度动态模型的建立及应用[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2007, 25(6): 5-9, 15.
Wei R J, Zhang W Z, Kang X Y, et al. Application and establishment of climatic suitability dynamic model of winter wheat in Hebei Province[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2007, 25(6): 5-9, 15. （in Chinese）
[20] 康西言, 顾光芹, 史印山, 等. 冬小麦干旱指标及干旱预测模型研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2011, 19(4): 860-865.
Kang X Y, Gu G Q, Shi Y S, et al. Drought indices and prediction models for winter wheat[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2011, 19(4): 860-865. （in Chinese）
[21] 冯利平, 孙宁, 刘荣花, 等. 我国华北冬小麦生产影响评估模型的研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2003, 11(4): 73-76.
Feng L P, Sun N, Liu R H, et al. An assessment model for effects of climate abnormity on wheat production in North China Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2003, 11(4): 73-76. （in Chinese）
[22] 姬兴杰, 朱业玉, 刘晓迎, 等. 气候变化对北方冬麦区冬小麦生育期的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2011, 32(4): 576-581.
Ji X J, Zhu Y Y, Liu X Y, et al. Impacts of climate change on the winter wheat growth stages in North China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2011, 32(4): 576-581. （in Chinese）
[23] 俄有浩, 霍治国, 马玉平, 等. 中国北方春小麦生育期变化的区域差异性与气候适应性[J]. 生态学报, 2013, 33(19): 6295-6302.
E Y H, Huo Z G, Ma Y P, et al. The regional diversity of changes in growing duration of spring wheat and its correlation with climatic adaptation in Northern China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013, 33(19): 6295-6302. （in Chinese）
[24] 孙卫国. 气候资源学[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2008: 120-132.
Sun W G. Summary on climate resources[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2008: 120-132. （in Chinese）