Quantitative Effects of Environmental Factors on Climatic Yield in the Mountainous Area—A Case Study in Yunnan Province

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.014

Abstract

Abstract: The shortage of agricultural land resources in mountainous area leads to an inevitable conflict between human and land, which responses particularly for the vulnerability of crop yield in the mountainous area under the climate change conditions. To study the effects of environmental factors on climatic yield may provide a scientific basis for the rational utilization and protection of the land resources in mountainous area. A case study was focused in the Yunnan Province in this paper, grain yield per unit area of 122 counties from the year 1985 to 2012 were collected, biological simulation model was used to simulate the trend of yield and calculate climatic yield, seventeen environmental factors were extracted from each country during the same period. Correlation analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA) were used to analyze the quantitative impact of environmental factors on climatic grain yield. The results showed that the unit area climatic yield varied between -0.15 and -0.01t·ha-1 with a reduction tendency with the increasing of time in the study area. A significantly negative correlation was found between the soil total potassium, while a significant positive correlation between slope, aspect and climatic yield. There was no statistically significant correlation between climatic yield and other 14 environmental factors. Redundancy analysis showed that slope, aspect, soil carbon and nitrogen ratio, temperature, soil pH and TK were the minimum variables combination which could explain 44.6% variation of grain yield. Slope gradient was one of the most important environmental influential factors, which could explain 44.62% of grain actual yield and 26.29% climatic yield per unit area’s variation. In higher climatic yield region by transforming slope into terrace, improving soil fertility and other means to increase grain yield is an effective way to protect the regional grain production safety under the premise of climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Climatic yield, Redundancy analysis, Environmental factors, Yunnan Province

GU Zhi-jia, BAI Zhi-wei, DUAN Xing-wu, DING Jian-hong, FENG De-tai, SHI Xiao-ning, HAN Xu. Quantitative Effects of Environmental Factors on Climatic Yield in the Mountainous Area—A Case Study in Yunnan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 497-505.

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