Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Output in Sichuan Based on the Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis Method

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.01.006

Abstract

Abstract:

The impacts of climate change on grain output in Sichuan province was assessed based on monthly mean temperature and precipitation data from 23 meteorological stations and grain output data of Sichuan province from 1961 to 2012 by the method of detrended cross-correlation analysis(DCCA method), while the temporal variation characteristics of Sichuan grain yield and the average annual temperature and annual precipitation of two major climatic factors were analyzed, respectively. The results showed that the correlations between temperature, precipitation and grain yield were characterized by long-term cross-correlation. The high persistence signifies that the correlations, from small time intervals to larger ones (up to 52 years at least) were positively correlated in a power-law fashion. At the same time, the DCCA exponent curves of moving series from 1990-2012 were studied. The results showed that, despite the regional climate warming and drying trend was appeared, the fluctuation of grain yield in Sichuan province is not stable, the impact of climate change on grain yield is gradually weakened. The increments of agriculture investment, which have an active role on grain output facing to harmful influence of climate change, were contributed to the DCCA exponent curves.

Key words: Detrended cross-correlation analysis, Long-term persistence, Grain output, Climate change, Sichuan

LIU Chun-qiong, LIU Ping, WU Sheng-hu, SHI Kai. Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Output in Sichuan Based on the Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis Method[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(01): 43-50.

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