Drought Variation and Its Sensitivity Coefficients to Climatic Factors in the Yellow River Basin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.06.002

Abstract

Abstract: Investigation of the variation in drought and regional response to climate change is widely accepted to be very important for ecological security and agricultural production, and can provide basis information for developing appropriate measures to reduce droughts over the Yellow River Basin (YRB). In this study, the relative humidity index (M) was calculated from a data set of daily climate variables in 102 meteorological stations over the Yellow River Basin and in sequence, its sensitivity coefficients to key meteorological variables were firstly investigated using a partial derivative method. The results witnessed that the drought degree was detected to be stronger in the upper region than the middle and lower region. Moderate, slight, moderate and extra severe drought were found in spring, summer, autumn and winter respectively and extra severe drought was found in entire year. M was detected to increase from the northwest to the southeast region and the extra severe drought region was mainly located in Shaanxi, Shanxi, north Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The meteorological stations whose relative humidity index increased were mainly located in the upper region, while in the southeast region of YRB. Accordingly, the M is proved to be positively sensitive to solar radiation (RS) and relative humidity (RH), while negatively sensitive to air temperature (T) and wind speed (WS). The M was most sensitive to RS and T for summer in upper and middle region respectively. Furthermore, the most sensitive variable turned to be RH for spring, autumn, winter and entire year in the whole basin. The declining of RH controlled a negative trend for M in spring and summer over the whole basin, while RS was primarily responsible for the change of M in autumn in upper and lower region respectively. However, the primarily controlling variable turned to be T, WS and WS for winter in upper, middle and lower region. As for the entire year, RS, RH and RH mainly governed M in upper, middle and lower basin respectively.

Key words: Relative humidity index, Meteorological drought, Sensitivity coefficient, Primarily controlling variable, Climate change, Yellow River Basin

LIU Qin, YAN Chang-rong, HE Wen-qing. Drought Variation and Its Sensitivity Coefficients to Climatic Factors in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(06): 623-632.

References

[1]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013. [2]Sheffield J,Wood E F.Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model,multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations[J].Climate Dynamics,2008,13(1): 79-105. [3]Dai A.Drought under global warming:a review[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change,2010,2(1):45-65. [4]Christopher B,Vicente B,Thomas F S,et al.Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (SREX)[M].Cambridge,UK,and New York,NY, USA:Cambridge University Press,2012:109-230. [5]王志伟,翟盘茂.中国北方近50年干旱变化特征[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊):61-68. Wang Z W,Zhai P M.Climate change in drought over Northern China during 1950-2000[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003, 58(Plus):61-68.(in Chinese) [6]张强,高歌.我国近50年旱涝灾害时空变化及监测预警服务[J].科技导报,2004,(7):21-24. Zhang Q,Gao G.The spatial and temporal features of drought and flood disasters in the past 50 years and monitoring and warning services in China[J].Science & Technology Review,2004,(7):21-24.(in Chinese) [7]王春乙.重大农业气象灾害研究进展[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-29. Wang C Y.Research progress on the major agrometeorological disasters[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:1-29. [8]赵俊芳,郭建平,徐精文,等.基于湿润指数的中国干湿状况变化趋势[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(8):18-24. Zhao J F,Guo J P,Xu J W,et al.Trends of Chinese dry-wet condition based on wetness index[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(8):18-24.(in Chinese) [9]高蓓,姜彤,苏布达,等.基于SPEI的1961-2012年东北地区干旱演变特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(6):656-662. Gao B,Jiang T,Su B D.Evolution analysis on droughts in Northeast China during 1961-2012 based on SPEI[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(6):656-662.(in Chinese) [10]刘勤,严昌荣,张燕卿,等.近50年黄河流域气温和降水量变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):475-480. Liu Q,Yan C R,Zhang Y Q,et al.Variation of precipitation and temperature in Yellow River Basin during the last 50 years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(4): 475-480. [11]史建国,严昌荣,何文清,等.黄河流域潜在蒸散量时空格局变化分析[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(6):773-778. Shi J G,Yan C R,He W Q,et al.Study on spatiotemporal change of evapotranspiration in the Yellow River basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2007,24(6):773-778.(in Chinese) [12]史建国,严昌荣,何文清,等.黄河流域水分亏缺时空格局变化分析研究[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(1):113-119. Shi J G,Yan C R,He W Q,et al.Study on spatial and temporal variation of water surplus and deficiency in Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(1):113-119. (in Chinese) [13]祝青林,张留柱,于贵瑞,等.近30年黄河流域降水量的时空演变特征[J]自然资源学报,2005,20(4):477-482 Zhu Q L,Zhang L Z,Yu G R,et al.The spatial and temportal variability characteristics of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin of recent 30 years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(4):477-482 [14]邱新法,刘昌明,曾燕.黄河流域近40年蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(4):437-442. Qiu X F,Liu C M,Zeng Y.Changes of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years over the Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2003,18(4):437-442.(in Chinese) [15]徐建文,居辉,刘勤,等.黄淮海平原典型站点冬小麦生育阶段的干旱特征及气候趋势的研究[J].生态学报,2014,34(10): 2765-2774. Xu J W,Ju H,Liu Q,et al.Drought variations of winter wheat in different growth stages and effects of climate trend in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014, 34(10):2765-2774. [16]冯建设,王建源,王新堂,等.相对湿润度指数在农业干旱监测业务中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(6):766-772. Feng J S,Wang J Y,Wang X T,et al.The application of relative humidity index to agricultural drought monitoring[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2011,22(6):766-772.(in Chinese) [17]郭晶,吴举开,李远辉,等.广东省气候干湿状况及其变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(2):157-161. Guo J,Wu J K,Li Y H,et al.Climate dryness/wetness status and its variation characteristics in Guangdong province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(2):157-161.(in Chinese) [18]郑盛华,覃志豪,张文博.松嫩平原干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(5):640-649. Zheng S H,Qin Z H,Zhang W B.Drought variation in Songnen Plain and its response to climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(5):640-649. [19]Gong L B,Xu C Y,Chen D L,et al.Sensitivity of the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,329(3-4):620-629． [20]梁丽乔,李丽娟,张丽,等.松嫩平原西部生长季参考作物蒸散发的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):1-5． Liang L Q,Li L J,Zhang L,et al.Sensitivity of the reference crop evapotranspiration in growing season in the West Songnen Plain[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2008,24(5): 1-5.(in Chinese) [21]刘小莽,郑红星,刘昌明,等.海河流域潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(9):1470-1476. Liu X M,Zheng H X,Liu C M,et al.Sensitivity of the potential evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Haihe River Basin[J].Resources Science,2009,31(9):1470- 1476.(in Chinese) [22]杜加强,舒俭民,刘成程,等.黄河上游参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(2): 92-100. Du J Q,Shu J M,Liu C C,et al.Variation characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration and its responses to climate change in upstream areas of Yellow River Basin[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2008,28(2):92-100.(in Chinese) [23]刘勤,严昌荣,赵彩霞,等.黄河流域日潜在蒸散量变化及气象敏感要素分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(17):157-166. Liu Q,Yan C R,Zhao C X,et al.Changes of daily potential evapotranspiration and analysis of its sensitivity coefficients to key climatic variables in Yellow River basin[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2014,30(17):157-166.(in Chinese) [24]严昌荣,何文清,张燕卿,等.黄河流域农业气候资源与保护性耕作[M].北京:科技出版社,2012:1-11. Yan C R,He W Q,Zhang Y Q,et al.Agro-climatic resource and conservation tillage in Yellow River Basin[M].Beijing: Science Press,2012:1-11. [25]高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.近50年东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12):101-109. Gao X R,Wang C Y,Zhang J Q,et al.Crop water requirement and temporal-spatial variation of drought and flood disaster during growth stages for maize in Northeast during past 50 years[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2012,28(12):101-109.(in Chinese) [26]王明田,王翔,黄晚华,等.基于相对湿润度指数的西南地区季节性干旱时空分布特征[J].农业工程学报,2012, 23(10):85-92. Wang M T,Wang X,Huang W H,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of seasonal drought in Southwest of China based on relative moisture index[J].Transactions of the CSAE, 2012,28(19):85-92.(in Chinese) [27]申双和,张方敏,盛琼.1975-2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(1):11-15. Shen S H,Zhang F M,Sheng Q.Spatio-temporal changes of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2009,25(1):11-15.(in Chinese) [28]Allen R G,Perreira L S,Raes D,et al.Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R].Rome: FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56,1998. [29]国家气象中心.GB/T20481-2006,气象干旱等级,中华人民共和国国家标准[S].国家质量监督检验检疫总局,2006. National Climate Center.GB/T20481-2006,Classification of meteorological drought,National standard of People's Republic of China[S].General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine(AQSIQ),2006. [30]王备,高文明,龙俐.黔西南州越冬作物生长季气象干旱特征分析[J].贵州气象,2011,35(1):18-21. Wang B,Gao W M,Long L.Meteorological drought characteristics in winter crop growing season[J].Journal of Guizhou Meteorology,2011,35(1):18-21.(in Chinese) [31]黄晚华,杨晓光,曲辉辉,等.基于作物水分亏缺指数的春玉米季节性干旱时空特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(8): 28-34. Huang W H,Yang X G,Qu H H,et al.Analysis of spatio- temporal characteristic on seasonal drought of spring maize based on crop water deficit index[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2009,25(8):28-34.(in Chinese) [32]梁丽乔,李丽娟,张丽,等.松嫩平原西部生长季参考作物蒸散发的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):1-5． Liang L Q,Li L J,Zhang L,et al.Sensitivity of the reference crop evapotranspiration in growing season in the West Songnen Plain[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2008,24(5): 1-5.(in Chinese) [33]Irmak S,Payero J O,Martin D L,et al.Sensitivity analyses and sensitivity coefficients of standardized daily ASCE-Penman- Monteith equation[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering,2006,132:564-578. [34]Goyal R K.Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming:a case study of arid zone of Rajasthan(India)[J]. Agricultural Water Management,2004,69: 1-11. [35]Gong L B,Xu C Y,Chen D L,et al.Sensitivity of the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,329(3-4):620-629． [36]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005:4-5. Du D,Pang Q H.Evaluation of modern methods and case selection[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2005:4-5.(in Chinese) [37]曹永强,张亭亭,王学凤,等.黄河流域帕尔默干旱指数的修正及应用[J].资源科学,2014,36(9):1810-1815. Cao Y Q,Zhang T T,Wang X F,et al.Revision and application of the PDSI index in the Yellow River Basin[J].Resources Science,2014,36(9):1810-1815. [38]史建国,张燕卿,何文清,等.黄河流域干燥度时空格局变化研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(1):242-247. Shi J G,Zhang Y Q,He W Q,et al.Study on spatial and temporal variation of arid index in Yellow River Basin[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2009,27(1): 242-247. [39]黄河流域西北片水旱灾害委会.黄河流域水旱灾害[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,1996. The Northwest committee of the drought and floods in Yellow River Basin.The drought and floods in Yellow River Basin[M]. Zhengzhou:The Yellow River Water Conservancy Press,1996