APSIM-based Evaluation of Climate Suitability on Wheat in Dryland in the Hill-gullied Region of the Loess Plateau

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.06.005

Abstract

Abstract: In order to improve the dynamic analysis ability about climate suitability level of drylang wheat, based on daily meteorolosical data of Dingxi experimental station, field experimental data from 1971 to 2005, the daily climate suitability degree model of dryland wheat was established in the hilly-gullied region of the Loess Plateau. By using the model, the comprehensive climate suitability indices were calculated and the comprehensive evaluation standards were confirmed during each growth stage(nutrition growth stage, nutrition and reproduction growth stage, reproduction growth stage) and whole stage of wheat. The wheat daily biomass was simulated by applying suitable APSIM. The diagnosis analysis standards of climate suitability were determined by methods of dynamic approximation error sum of squares and were verified by comparing the evaluation results based on APSIM and those based on the daily climate suitability degree model with grade percentage method. During the main growth stage of wheat from 2002 to 2005, the climate suitability level of dryland wheat was analyzed and evaluated by using diagnosis analysis standards. The results showed that the evaluation results based on APSIM and those based on the daily climate suitability degree model were in substantial agreement grade identical and differ by one grade accounted for 86%-90%.The diagnosis analysis results of each growth stage and whole stage of dryland wheat were more suitable from 2002 to 2005, and that was basically consistent with actual circumstances of experimental region. The APSIM-based optimization method could improve the tracing analysis ability about climate suitability level of wheat and could provide technical assistance for wheat production adapting to climatic change.

Key words: APSIM, Comprehensive evaluation, Dynamic diagnosis, Wheat, Simulation

NIE Zhi-gang, REN Xin-zhuang, LI Guang, DONG Li-xia,MA Wei-wei, TANG Jie,LIU Xiao-e, LUO Yong-zhong. APSIM-based Evaluation of Climate Suitability on Wheat in Dryland in the Hill-gullied Region of the Loess Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(06): 369-377.

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