Abstract: Under three different scenarios of greenhouse gas emission including RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.5, the daily precipitation data in Guizhou, covering the period of 2006-2016 from 8 CMIP5 models provided by the National Climate Center, were examined in this study by using the Taylor diagrams. The data from two models (CCSM4 and IPSL-CM5A-MR) with the best simulation results were selected to calculate the extreme precipitation indices during three periods of 2018-2044, 2045-2071 and 2072-2098 subsequently. The indices included maximum number of consecutive dry days(CDD), numbers of days with precipitation ≥20mm·d-1(R20mm), maximum 5 day precipitation total(Rx5day) and simple daily intensity index(SDII), respectively, in comparison to those during the period 1986-2005. It was indicated that the CDD over the eastern regions grew during the 21st century under the three RCPs scenarios and the increase was proportional to the emission scenario. This described that more attention should be paid on the potential drought over the eastern Guizhou in future. Besides, the increases in R20mm, Rx5day and SDII were also detected in Guizhou during the 21st century. In the late 21st century, the increment of the extreme precipitation was more obvious under high emission(RCP8.5) than those under lower emission (RCP4.5 and 2.6). Overall, it was suggested that extreme precipitation events over Guizhou showed an uprising trend with more gas emission, under the background of the global warming.

Key words: Taylor diagrams, RCPs scenarios, Projected climate change, Extreme precipitation events