Evaluations and Projections of Rice Yield from Multi-gridded Crop Model over China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.04.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) FAST-TRACK round’s results, we evaluated rice yield simulations of 6 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) driven by 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate datasets from 1980 to 2004 as history period. Subsequently, the multi-crop model ensemble (MCME) was used to predict temporal-spatial distribution of future rice yield over China from the year 2020 to 2099 under different Recommended Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results showed that MCME provided better performance for historic rice yield distribution with R of 0.798 and RMSE of 1540.6kg·ha^-1 compared to single crop model results. MCME results showed better simulations in the north-east and south-westregions of China, but had poor performance in other regions. Moreover, the MCME overestimated spatial variability. Furthermore, under the increasing of temperature and CO₂concentration, rice yield had the largest growth of nearly 20% in the late 21st century under RCP8.5 scenario compare to the early 21st century and had a larger growth of 15% under RCP6.0 scenario approximately. For RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, rice yield increased in the first half of 21st century, and stayed stable or even slightly decreased in the second half of 21st century, thus leading to a rise of only 4% and 10% respectively by the late 21st century. Rice yield would increase significantly (>40%) in the north-east and south-west regions of China. While other main rice planting areas like middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and South China only experienced little increase.

Key words: Rice, Gridded crop model, RCPs scenarios, Multi-crop model ensemble

SUN Qing, YANG Zai-qiang, YANG Shi-qiong, WANG Lin, ZHAO He-li, WEI Ting-ting, LI Jia-shuai, CHE Xiang-hong, ZHENG Xiao-hui. Evaluations and Projections of Rice Yield from Multi-gridded Crop Model over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(04): 199-213.

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