Table of Content

10 April 2007, Volume 28 Issue 02

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Phenological Changes in Spring in Last 40 Years in North China

HAN Chao1,2,ZHENG Jing-yun1,GE Quan-sheng1(1.Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;2.Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

2007, 28(02):  113-117. 

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Based on the phenology data observed by 7 stations from the Chinese Phenology Observation Network,the change of phenological spring in North China(1963-1996),as well as in Beijing(1963-2005),and its relationship with climate warming were analyzed.The results showed that the phenological spring onset showed remarkable advance in North China mostly introduced by warming winter and spring.Temperature from January to March increased 2.3℃,and 1.7℃ in April,while the beginning and ending of phenology in spring advanced 9 days and 4 days separately which led to 5 days longer in spring.In Beijing(1963-2003),the temperature from January to March increased 3.5℃,and 2.6℃ in April.The beginning and ending of spring advanced 11 days and 10 days separately,but the length of spring was not changed dramatically.

Assessment of PRECIS Simulation Sensitivity to Domain Size over Ningxia

XU Bin,XU Yin-long,ZHANG Yong,ZHAO Xiu-juan(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

2007, 28(02):  118-123. 

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Ten month(December,1978-September,1979)ECWMF reanalysis data was employed as quasi-observational boundaries to drive PRECIS at 25km horizontal resolution over Ningxia to analyse the sensitivity of model simulation to 4 different domain sizes via comparing the simulated daily mean temperature and precipitation in summer and winter to with the observation.The results showed that the daily mean temperature and precipitation could be well simulated by PRECIS at 25km horizontal resolution over Ningxia in 4 kinds of different domain size,the PRECIS especially performed better for precipitation simulation.It can be seen that the PRECIS simulation was sensitive to the model domain size,the simulated results were declining when the domain size decreasing,however,the PRECIS simulation was still well in the mid-small domain size over Ningxia.Considering the expenses of calculation,the mid-small domain size was the most efficient to climate simulation in Ningxia using PRECIS at 25km horizontal resolution.

Variation Trends of Maximal and Minimal Air Temperature at Wulanaodu Region,Horqin Steppe

WANG Hong-mei,LUO Yong-ming,JIANG De-ming(Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China)

2007, 28(02):  124-127. 

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An analysis on variation trends and annual variation characteristics of monthly average air temperature,average maximal air temperature,average minimal air temperature,average air temperature at 2 A.M.and average air temperature at 2 P.M.during 1981-2005 in Wulanaodu Region was carried out.The results showed that the five lists presented a discontinuous increased trend of temperature in past 25 years.The linear increasing rate of maximal air temperature(0.78℃/10a) is maximal,and is 5.6-fold of that of minimal air temperature(0.14℃/10a).The average maximal air temperature and minimal air temperature presented an increased trend in all seasons.The increasing trend of air temperature in spring was most obvious,and the trend in autumn,summer and winter were gradually reduced. The increased range of air temperature,presenting obvious unsymmetrical variation,was higher in daytime than that at night.

Responses of Summer Rainfall in South Piedmont Regions of Yanshan Mountains to East Asiao Summer Monsoon Change

HAO Li-sheng1,QI Lin2,HE Li-fu2,BI Bao-gui2(1.Meteorological Bureau of Hengshui City,Hengshui,053000,China;2.National Meteorological Center)

2007, 28(02):  128-131. 

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Based on summer precipitation data in the South Piedmont Regions of Yanshan Mountains for the period from 1951 to 2005 and geopotential height,wind data from NCEP/NCAR for the period 1951 to 2005,the change of summer rainfall in the South Piedmont Regions of Yanshan Mountains and East Asian Summer Monsoon change was analyzed,by using trend analysis,wavelet transform and abrupt change analysis.The results showed that the summer rainfall showed decreasing tendency since 1980,abrupt climate change taking place in 1996.The summer rainfall had obviously linear decreasing tendency,decreasing 29 mm per decade during the past 55 years.The variation of summer rainfall presented a 10-year periods,while the East Asian Summer Monsoon change had a 11-year period.The variation periods of summer rainfall were consistent with that of the East Asian Summer Monsoon.The summer rainfall became less than mean value in the South Piedmont Regions of Yanshan Mountains which was response to the East Asian Summer Monsoon change.

Fractal Characteristics of Precipitation During Growing Periods of Main Crops and Its Ecological Significance in Heilongjiang Province

YU Xiao-qiu1,GE Jia-qi2,XU Zhong-ru2(1.College of Art & Science,Heilongjiang August First Land Reclamation University,Daqing 163319,China;2.College of Science,Northeast A gricultural University)

2007, 28(02):  132-135. 

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The characteristics of precipitation changes during growing periods of main crops in 79 counties and cities of Heilongjiang Province from 1984 to 1999 was studied by using the fractal theory.Results showed that the distribution of the precipitation had a good statistical self-similarity as well as a significant fractal character.The analysis for the different counties and cities showed the fractal dimension of precipitation with an increasing trend from the Southwest to the Northeast of the Province.In the North was with the highest fractal dimension of precipitation,which indicated a complicated changes and low stability of the precipitation.

Change Characteristics of Climate Factors Affecting Sugarcane Yield and Sugar Content in Zhanjiang City

XIE Ping1,ZHANG Yu2,CHEN Sheng-nan2(1.Agricultural College of Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524088,China;2.Meteorological Bureau of Zhanjiang City)

2007, 28(02):  136-139. 

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The characteristics of climate factor changes,including its trend,phase and periodicity,affecting sugarcane(Saccharum officinarum) yield and sugar content was analyzed in Zhanjiang for the last 55 years.The results showed that there was an obvious increasing trend in accumulated temperature from March to October,while there was an obvious phase in total precipitation and accumulated temperature from March to October,and there was an obvious periodicity in total precipitation,accumulated temperature,total sunlight hours and quantity of gust from March to October,total sunlight hours existed periodicity of 11 and 3～4 years,quantity of gust existed periodicity of 5～6 and 7～8 years.The mean minimum temperature from October to November had faint increasing trend.The precipitation from November to February following year had a significant phase and a periodicity of 2～3 years.

Investigations on Minimum Temperature and Analysis of Characteristics of Temperature Inversion in Air Layer 0～1.5m near Ground

CAI Wen-hua1,ZHANG Hui2,PAN Wei-hua1,LAN Zhong-ming2(1.Institute of Meteorological Science of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350001,China;2.Institute of Soil and Fertilizer of Fujian Province)

2007, 28(02):  140-143. 

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Annual extreme minimum temperature in Fujian Province mostly resulted from dropping in temperature(A Model Dropping) arisen from terrestrial radiation in fine nights after dropping in temperature arisen from advection.The serious or most serious freezing damage of fruit tree appeared in A Model Dropping.At the top,bottom and middle of slope in two locations,the investigation on the minimum temperature in air layer 0～1.5m near ground showed that the temperature inversion also appeared in air layer 0～1.5m near ground,when A Model Dropping happened.Intensity of temperature inversion in air layer developed,when relatively sloping location rose and reduced by ratio of release to influx reduced.Applying character of temperature inversion and using freeze endured variety as rootstock in air layer of the minimum temperature in grafting would evade or reduce freezing damage arisen from the minimum temperature.But the phenomena of temperature inversion in air layer 0～1.5m near ground in the bottom of the slope(cold lake) where the cold air went into easily and out difficultly,was not obvious.There was no significant effect in reducing freezing damage even by grafting.

Primary Study on Surface Heating Field and Biomass in Alpine Kobresia Meadow in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

ZHANG Fa-wei1,2,LIU An-hua1,2,LI Ying-nian1,ZHAO Liang1(1.Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology,CAS,Xining 810001, China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

2007, 28(02):  144-148. 

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Based on the data measured by the eddy covariance method in 2002,we analyzed the seasonal variations of the surface heating field,energy balance,aboveground biomass and belowground biomass of the kobresia alpine meadow in the Northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.The results showed that the surface of the alpine meadow ecosystem was heat resources.There was evidently seasonal variation in heating field,whose annual mean value was with 88.5Wm-2 in 2002.Both aboveground biomass and belowground biomass had seasonal variations as well as.There was positive correlation between aboveground biomass and heating field,while there was not significant relationship between belowground biomass and heating field.

Influence of Different Cultivation Methods on Amino Acid Content of High Protein Forage Rice Grains

RONG Xiang-min,XIE Gui-xian,LIU Qiang,PENG Jian-wei,ZHU Hong-mei (College of Resource and Environment,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China)

2007, 28(02):  149-153. 

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In order to compare influence of three different cultivation methods(integrated high yield cultivation system-IC,Sanzhuang Sangao cultivation system-SC and Conventional cultivation system-CC) on amino acid content of high protein forage rice grains,field experiments combining with laboratory analysis were conducted in 2004 in Langli County of Changsha City.The rice types provided for the experiments were Xiangfengzao119(early rice) and Peiliangyou288(late rice).and three cultivations methods were high-protein and high-yield integrative cultivation(HPHYIC),san-zhuang-san-gao cultivation(SZSGC) and conventional cultivation(CC).The Glutamicoxalacetic transaminase(GOT) and aspartokinase(AK) activity of leaves and grains,and the contents of protein and amino acid in brown rice were analyzed.The results showed that the activities of GOT and AK in functional leaves and grains,the contents of amino acid,lysine,threonine and methionine,seven kinds of essential amino acids for people,eleven of essential amino acids for pig,fourteen kinds of essential amino acids for chicken,protein and protein yield in brown rice were significantly improved by IC method compared with those of conventional cultivation and SC method.The IC method was suitable for high protein forage rice cultivation.

Regional Evapotranspiration Estimation in Quanzhou City by Using Remote Sensing Technology

PAN Wei-hua1,2,XU Han-qiu2,LI Wen1,CAI Wen-hua1,ZhANG Chun-gui1 (1.Institute of Meteorological Science of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350001,China;2.College of Environmental and Resource,Fuzhou University)

2007, 28(02):  154-158. 

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Evapotranspiration is a key factor which frequently used in the agricultural and meteorological change studies.However it is difficult to estimate evapotranspiration(ET) over large area of natural land surface.In this study,the evapotranspiration estimation models with vegetation cover and bare soil were presented based on information of surface parameters like vegetation fraction and surface albedo.Combined with vegetation fraction data,a model for regional evapotranspiration estimation over the heterogeneous landscape was derived from Landsat TM/ETM+.Meanwhile,through a case study with remote sensing data in Quanzhou city,which lies in Southeast China,the accuracy of the model for regional evapotranspiration estimation was validated.The features of evapotranspiration in Quanzhou City and models were also discussed.It is possible to estimate the regional evapotranspiration by this model.

Forest Ecosystem Model PnET and Its Applications

BAKE Batur,ZHANG Xu-dong,PENG Zhen-hua,ZHOU Jin-xing,HAN Shuai,HUANG Ling-ling(Research Institute of Forestry,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China)

2007, 28(02):  159-161. 

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Forest ecosystem model is an effective tool for providing decision on forest resource management.PnET was established on the framework of interdisciplinary studies by the Complex Systems Research Center,USA. Though primarily a temperate forest canopy model,work is currently underway to generalize PnET and produce a simple,alternative model applicable to simulate carbon,water and nitrogen flux for all terrestrial ecosystem types.Current literatures revealed that PnET could be applied in wide zone,including America,Europe and Asia.PnET model is a useful tool to analyze forest growth,effect of different soil types and climate conditions on carbon,nitrogen and water flux of forest ecosystem.In addition,it can be used as predictor to estimate potential production of forest ecosystem in changing environment and provide information for improving land use efficiency.

Path analysis of Impacts of Meteorological Factors on Maize Yield on Loess Plateau of East Gansu Province

ZHANG Mou-cao1,2,LI Zong-yan3,DUAN Jin-sheng2,HUANG Bin2,ZHANG Feng3,Ma Su-juan4(1.Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020;2.Agro-meteorological Experiment Station of Xifeng City;3.Meteorological Bureau of Qingyang City;4.Meteorological Bureau of Longnan City)

2007, 28(02):  162-165. 

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The relationships between yield composition factors such as grain weight per plant,100-grain weight,ear length,double ear rate and meteorological factors e.g.sunlight,heat,precipitation were analyzed,by using path analysis method.The result showed that the decision degree of grain weight per plant and ear length were the biggest contributor to the maize yield with decision coefficient by 0.3052.The grain weight per plant was the secondary biggest contributor to the maze yield with decision coefficient by 0.2538.Third one was the ear length with decision coefficient by 0.2114.The impact of different of meteorological factors on grain weight per plant and ear length was different for different growth periods.The precipitation and average temperature had the biggest direct effect on the ear length and grain weight per plant before heading period.The accumulated temperature(≥10℃) through the average temperature and sunlight hours contributed to the ear length during seeding to jointing period by the indirect effect.The ear length and grain weight per plant mainly had direct effect to the yield during jointing to heading period.Sunlight hours directly affected the ear length during seeding to jointing period and indirectly affected the ear length and grain weight per plant during jointing to heading period.The meteorological factors had less effect on the ear length and grain weight per plant during heading to mature period,while its effect showed mainly on yield consist factors in seeding and fringe period,but decreased after grouting period.Therefore it is critical for gaining the high yield to pay attention to the field manage and proper plant density.

Quality Analysis of High Quality Rice Variety Yunhui 290 under Lower Latitude Plateau Climate Conditions

HU Xue-qiong1,MAO Jun-xu2,ZHU Yong1,ZHANG MAO-song1,ZHAO Shao-gang3,ZHU Fu-hong4,XU Li-xing5(1.Climate Center of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650034,China;2. Agricultural College,University of Science and Technology of Henan Province;3.Meteorological Bureau of Mengzi County;4.Meteorological Bureau of Shiping County;5.Meteorological Bureau of Kaiyuan City)

2007, 28(02):  166-169. 

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The data from date test of high quality rice variety Yunhui 290 in the lower latitude plateau of Yunnan Province was used to analyze the rice quality and key climate factors which influence the rice quality.It was concluded that rice quality was influenced by climate differently.In general,the key period influencing the rice quality was from the 10 days before full heading to 30 days after full heading.Especially the meteorological factors during full heading and 30 days after full heading had biggest influence in rice quality.The key meteorological factors influencing the rice quality were daily mean temperature,sunshine duration,daily range of temperature and precipitation.

Suitability Evaluation of Air Temperature for Autumn Peanut (Arachis hypogaea) Planting in Fujian Province Based on GIS

WANG Fei(Institute of Soil and Fertilizers,Fujian Academy of Agricultural Science,Fuzhou 350013,China)

2007, 28(02):  170-173. 

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Based on meteorological data and GIS,the correlative air temperature factors were calculated in Fujian Province by combining quadratic tendency curve model with inverse distance weighted interpolation,the dynamic clustering analysis was used to classify the restrained factor of air temperature for autumn peanut(Arachis hypogaea) planting.Results showed that the planting area for autumn peanut restrained by the air temperature took 42.22%,18.21%,14.56%,25.01% to the total farmland area for most serious,more serious, slight and none respectively.The Southeast of Fujian Province was the most suitable region for the autumn peanut planting,while the suitability for the autumn peanut planting ranged from the Southeast to the West,Middle,North and East of Fujian Province.

Analysis of Climate and Its Regionalization for Flue-cured Tobacco Planting under Continuous Cropping in Rice-tobacco Cropping System in Guangze County

CHEN Chao-yang1,CHEN Li-xin2,YE Gui-fang3,HE Huan-hui1,JIE Zhong-fa2(1.Tobacco Company of Guangze County,Guangze 354100,China;2.Meteorological Bureau of Guangze County;3.People's Government of Guangze County)

2007, 28(02):  174-177. 

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Agricultural climate resources and climate conditions for flue-cured tobacco(Nicotiana spp.L.) production were investigated and analyzed by regression and equity.Based on the geography distribution mode of meteorological factors in flue-cured tobacco planting under continuous cropping in rice-tobacco cropping system,the climate regionalization for tobacco planting was made by the technologies of GIS to provide a scientific basis for exploiting and utilizing climate resources efficiently,and improving the yield and quality of tobacco.

Ecological Adaptability Division of Ligusticum chuanxiong hort.in Sichuan Basin

PENG Guo-zhao1,PENG Jun1,XIONG Zhi-qiang2(1.Institute of Plateau Meteorology,CMA,Chengdu 610071,China;2.Agro-meteorological center of Sichuan Province)

2007, 28(02):  178-182. 

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Effect of climatic conditions on Ligusticum chuanxiong hort.production was studied with statistical methods,key factor and key stage of determining its.yields were found out.According to this result,climate factors affecting Ligusticum chuanxiong hort.layout and distribution were put forward,and spatial analytic model was established.4 regions for it.growing in Sichuan Basin were divided with GIS technology and the data on the scale of 1∶250000,which provided scientific base for production and development of Ligusticum chuanxiong hort.in Sichuan Basin.

Analysis of Climate Resources for Introduced Rabbiteye Blueberry in the Southeast of Guizhou Province

LIANG Ping,LONG Xian-ju,GU Xin(Meteorological Bureau of Southeast Prefecture of Guizhou Province,Kaili 556000,China)

2007, 28(02):  183-186. 

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Based on the meteorological data of 16 meteorological stations during 1971-2000 in the Southeast Prefecture of Guizhou Province,the meteorological conditions such as light,temperature and precipitation for the introduced rabbiteye blueberry(Vaccinium ashei) were analyzed.The results showed that the areas at the altitude below 300 m were unsuitable to plant rabbiteye blueberry,because the temperature could not meet the requirement for breaking the dormancy of rabbiteye blueberry,while the areas at altitude between 700 m and 1000 m were possible for rabbiteye blueberry planting,but the yield was not stable due to the low temperature at the end of the winter and the beginning of the spring.Areas at altitude between 300 m and 700 m were the most suitable regions with high and stable yields of rabbiteye blueberry.

Analysis of Meteorological Conditions for Introduced Turnips in Spring in Xiuwen County of Guizhou Province

ZHOU Zhe-jian,LIU Juan(Meteorological Bureau of Xiuwen County,Xiuwen 550200,China)

2007, 28(02):  187-189. 

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Based on the data of planting for different varieties of the spring turnip(Brassica rapa) from 2003 to 2005 in Xiuwen County of Guizhou Province,meteorological conditions for introduced turnip were analyzed.The turnip varieties with endured producing shoots,strong winterness form and commercial quality were chosen.The suitable planting date in spring for the high yield,good quality and earlier harvest was determined.

Impact of Climate Change on Planting Distribution of Orange in Nanfeng County of Jiangxi Province

YIN Jian-Min1,2(1.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;2.Institute of Meteorological Science of Jiangxi Province)

2007, 28(02):  190-194. 

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Based on the meteorological data of observatories from 1961 to 2000 and the remote sensing data from CBERS,the low temperature damage index for orange planting was calculated to topography datum and to carry out an orange planting elaborate climate zonal and feasible orange planting area calculating in different decades with climate changing.The research result showed that with the climate warming,area of feasible orange planting region increased distinctly.The research provides a new approach to study the impact of climate changing on agricultural production,the result also possess important signification for developing local orange planting.

Application of MODIS and ETM Data in Sugarcane Growth Monitoring

DING Mei-hua,ZHONG Shi-quan,TAN Zong-kun,SUN Han,MO Wei-hua(Remote Sensing Applying and Experiment Base of National Meteorological Satellite Center/Institute of Meteorological Disaster Mitigation of Guangxi Province,Nanning 530022,China)

2007, 28(02):  195-197. 

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Guangxi Autonomous Region is one of the sugarcane(Saccharum officinarum) production bases in China.The information on the growth and yield of Sugarcane provide important references for government policy making,production management of sugar enterprises and field management of sugarcane.Based on the data of MODIS and remote sensing technique,the sugarcane growth was monitored by the method of ND VI.Meanwhile,the ETM data,which has an advantage of high space distinguish rate,was used to pick up the information of sugarcane fields by the method of direct classification from the image of ETM, which will eliminate those interferential information from the monitoring fields and improve the precision of sugarcane growth monitoring by remote sensing method greatly.Therefore it had been proved that the monitoring accuracy for sugarcane growth was improved by application of MODIS data combined with ETM data.

Estimate of Forest Fire Area by Using RAGA Genetic Algorithms in Sub-pixel Decompound Based on Remote Sensing Monitoring

ZHANG Shun-qian,GUO Hai-yan,QING Qing-tao(Climate Center of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610071,China)

2007, 28(02):  198-200. 

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Newton's iteration method was the common algorithms on the sub-pixel decompound of the forest fire.The computing precision of the fire area lied on the estimating precision of background temperature,when the estimating error of the background temperature(Tbg) was to 0.5～1K,one times difference of the fire area to pixel size percent(Af) would caused.The genetic algorithms has the capability of entirely optimizing,with the background temperature(Tbg),fire temperature(Tf) and fire area percent(Af) as the optimizing variables.The RAGA genetic algorithms were used to optimize the entire results of radiance balance equations on the sub-pixel decompound.The result indicated that the equations evaluation precision was two orders of magnitude higher than the Newton's iteration method.Finally,three forest fire areas in Muli County of Sichuan Province was estimated with the RAGA respectively to provide the important references for putting out of the forest fires.

Realization of Classification with Computer to Surface Feature in Dawa County

SUI Ming,LI Guo-chun,WANG Hong-bo(Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110161,China)

2007, 28(02):  201-204. 

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The surface feature of Dawa county of Liaoning Province was classified by the maximum likelihood method.The data was picked up by reading,displaying and cutting of the Landsat-TM data,which format is FAST-L7A and achieved by using Visual C++ program language.The result could provide the reference for remote sensing data processing with computer.

Spatial Interpolation of Mean Temperature of Heilongjiang Province Based on Digital Elevation Model

XIE Yun-feng1,2,ZHANG Shu-wen1(1.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural ecology,CAS,Changchun 130012,China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of sciences)

2007, 28(02):  205-211. 

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Meteorological data sets were widely used in ecological system modeling and zonation of agricultural resources.However,without geographical knowledge being considered,most present interpolation models were purely mathematical ways,so the result were usually very poor,especially in the district where just has less or no meteorological observation stations.Based on the relationships between mean temperature and geographical factors,a geographical knowledge aided spatial interpolation model was introduced to improve the spatial interpolation result.Monthly mean temperature data from 67 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1957 to 2004 were interpolated by using Inverse Distance Weighting(IDW),Ordinal Kriging(OK),Spline and Knowledge Based Spatial Interpolation(KBSI)3 Cross-validation was applied to evaluate the four interpolation methods,from which the Mean Absolute Error(MAE), Mean Relative Error(MRE) and Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE) were calculated.The resulted showed that KBSI had the minimal MAE and RMSE.The spatial distributions of monthly mean temperature were also reasonable.

Review on Research of Meteorological Conditions and Prediction Methods of Crop Disease and Insect Pest

CHEN Huai-liang1,2,ZHANG Hong2,LI You2(1.Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450003,China;2.Henan Agricultural University)

2007, 28(02):  212-216. 

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The research on the meteorological prediction of crop disease and insect pest development was summarized in two aspects,e.g.meteorological conditions causing the crop disease and insect pest and methods of meteorological prediction.The recent developments of researches in meteorological conditions causing disease and insect pest were summed up by studying relations between the development of disease and insect pest and meteorological factors on the large-,medium-and small-scale meteorological backgrounds.The progresses on meteorological prediction were summed up in mathematical statistics,fuzzy mathematics,grey system,artificial neural network and 3S technique.The problems and difficulties existed in these methods were discussed.The further research needed was prospected as well.

A Study on Spatial Distribution of Agro-meteorological Disaster Risk of Late Rice Production in Zhejiang Province

WU Li-hong,MAO Yu-ding,MIAO Chang-ming,YAO Yi-ping,SU Gao-li(Climate Center of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310017,China)

2007, 28(02):  217-220. 

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Based on the data of late rice yields from 1971 to 2004 in 52 counties of Zhejiang Province,the integrate risk index(IRI) based on average yield reduction ratio,the variation coefficient,the risk index were calculated to classify late rice yield losses in the agro-meteorological risk regions.The temperature,precipitation and disasters data mainly related to the agro-meteorological disaster during the rice growing period was identified.The variability of the rice yield were analyzed for the different risk regions.The results indicated that in the regions where IRI was with >0.3 there were largest losses on the annual yield;In the regions where IRI ranged from 0.20 to 0.30,the yield was stable.In the areas where the IRI was with <0.20 there were more bumper harvest years than poor harvest years.These results would provide scientific gist for the insurance company by establishing insurance regions and fee-ratio.

Prediction and Early Warning of Fruit Tree Freezing Damage in Winter due to Low Temperature in Fujian Province

XIA Li-hua1,ZHANG Li-duo2,LIN He-fu3,LENG Dian-song1,CAI Wen-hua4(1.Fujian Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350001,China;2.Meteorological Bureau of Xiamen City;3.Meteorological Bureau of Longyan City;4.Institute of Meteorological Science of Fujian Province)

2007, 28(02):  221-225. 

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Based on the meteorological data from 1963 to 2004 in Fujian Province,the circulation system of the low temperature weather in winter(November to February next year) was analyzed.The results showed that the 57.1% of the low temperature weather in winter was from west way.The intensity and way of the cold high atmospheric pressure center,Φ568(the latitude at the nodical point of the 5680 geopotential meter line with the 120°E line in the 500hPa high altitude) and Φ850(the latitude at the nodical point of the 0°C temperature line with the 120°E line in the 850hPa high altitude) were closely related to the minimum temperature.The equation of short-term forecast of low temperature weather for Fuzhou,Xiamen and Shaowu was established by stepwise regression analysis.The detemperature rate was estimated by cloud cover,wind velocity.humidity(N20,F20,U20)at 20:00 o'clock.The index of freezing damage of different fruit tree varieties was determined and integrated to the early warning systems.

A Reference Design for Citrus Freeze Damage Insurance by Using Meteorological Index in Zhejiang Province

MAO Yu-ding,WU Li-hong,MIAO Chang-ming,YAO Yi-ping,SU Gao-li(Climate Center of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310017,China)

2007, 28(02):  226-230. 

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Based on the risk analysis of extreme minimum air temperature,the inter-annual variations of minimum air temperatures and the assessments for citrus freeze damages,a citrus freeze damage insurance model was constructed to design a reference model for citrus freezing damage insurance.In terms of the results,the main citrus regions in Zhejiang Province were classified into two producing areas.One is the hilly and basin areas in the Central-western Zhejiang,while the other is the costal areas in the Eastern Zhejiang.For each citrus producing area,the insurance contents for light,medium and heavy damages were confirmed by the meteorological indexes which integrated extreme minimum air temperature.