华北平原夏玉米主要生育期对气候变化的响应

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1981-2009年华北平原夏玉米生育期和气象观测资料，采用线性回归方法分析华北平原各地区夏玉米主要生育期对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明：（1）1981-2009年华北平原夏玉米生育期内最低气温和平均气温均呈显著升高趋势（P<0.05），升温趋势随纬度递减。日照时数呈极显著下降趋势（P<0.01）。降水量变化趋势不显著；（2）京津冀地区和山东省夏玉米主要生育期有显著（P<0.05）延迟的响应趋势，而河南省夏玉米主要生育期则显著（P<0.05）提前；（3）华北平原夏玉米全生育期天数呈极显著增加（2.72d·10a-1，P<0.01）的响应趋势，京津冀地区生育期天数增加最快，为3.36d·10a-1；（4）夏玉米全生育期天数与同期平均气温在大部区域呈负相关关系，回归系数在-7.16～3.17；生殖生长期天数与同期平均气温在大部区域呈负相关关系，回归系数在-3.56～1.87。生育期内平均气温每上升1℃，全生育期和生殖生长期天数分别平均缩短2.71d和1.07d。因此，在应对气候变化时，华北平原夏玉米不同区域的响应方式存在显著差异，应根据各区域的响应特征安排适宜的播种期并选用合适的品种类型。

关键词: 生育期, 气候变化, 响应, 华北平原, 夏玉米

Abstract: Knowledge about response of crop phenology to current climate change is of much importance to predict its response to future climate change scenario,since it helps reduce the prediction uncertainty.In this paper,based on phonological observation data of summer maize from agricultural meteorological station records and daily meteorological data during 1981-2009 in the North China Plain (NCP),responses of summer maize phenology to climate change were analyzed using linear regression method and significance analysis.Results showed that:(1) over the past 30 years,minimum and average temperature increased significantly(P<0.05)during summer maize growing season in NCP with a trend of decline negatively correlated with latitude.Sunshine hours declined substantially (P<0.01)and precipitation change was not significant;(2)The dates of main growth period of summer maize in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Shandong province delayed significantly(P<0.05),while in the Henan province they advanced significantly(P<0.05);(3)The whole growth days in NCP increased with a rate of 2.72d·10y-1(P<0.01),and those in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region had the highest rate of 3.36d·10y-1;(4)The whole growth days were mainly negatively correlated with average temperature during the same period. Regression coefficient varied in -7.16～3.17.The reproductive days were also negatively correlated with average temperature.Regression coefficient varied in -3.56～1.87.The results indicated that while temperature increased by 1oC,the daysof whole growth period and reproductively stage of summer maize would shorten by 2.71d and 1.07d, respectively.Summer maize in different regions of NCP had different ways of responding to climate change.Suitable seeding time and variety types should be selected according to local response features.

Key words: Phenology, Climate change, Response, The North China Plain, Summer maize

孟林,刘新建,邬定荣,王春乙. 华北平原夏玉米主要生育期对气候变化的响应[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(04): 375-382.

MENG Lin,LIU Xin jian, WU Ding rong, WANG Chun yi. Responses of Summer Maize Main Phenology to Climate Change in the North China Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 375-382.

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