中国农业气象

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

重庆近46年气候变化特征分析

周浩;杨宝钢;程炳岩;   

  1. 重庆气候中心,重庆气候中心,重庆气候中心 重庆401147,重庆401147,重庆401147
  • 出版日期:2008-02-10 发布日期:2008-02-10
  • 基金资助:
    重庆气象局气象科技课题“重庆气候变化监测评估”

Analysis of Characteristics of Climate Change over Last 46 Years in Chongqing

ZHOU Hao,YANG Bao-gang,CHENG Bing-yan (Chongqing Climate Center,Chongqing 401147,China)   

  • Online:2008-02-10 Published:2008-02-10

摘要: 利用重庆34个地面气象观测站1960-2005年降水量、降水日数、气温等观测资料的年平均值,运用线性倾向估计、小波分析和M-K突变检验等方法对重庆近46 a来气候变化的主要特征进行了分析。结果表明:分析期内重庆年降水量的线性变化趋势不明显,但以2~3 a的周期波动变化为主,1984年是近46 a降水量变化的显著突变点,20世纪80年代为多雨期,90年代则为相对少雨期。降水日数以2~4 a的年际变化周期为主,呈现显著的线性减少趋势,1984年以后降水日数偏少的年份比之前明显偏多。年平均气温的线性变化趋势不明显,但具有明显的阶段性,20世纪80年代为偏冷期,进入21世纪后则显著上升,其平均值高出多年平均值0.4℃。降水和气温在各年代的变化特征存在较好的对应关系,如20世纪80年代为多雨、偏冷期,21世纪初为少雨、偏暖期。

关键词: 重庆, 气候变化, 降水量, 降水日数, 气温

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data of mean annual precipitation,rain day and air temperature of 34 meteorological stations in 1960-2005,the characteristics of climate change in Chongqing in the recent 46 years was studied,by using linear-trend estimate,Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall catastrophe test.The results indicated that the precipitation decreased faintly and broke out in 1984.The main period oscillation of precipitation was 2-3 years.There was a pluvial period in 1980s and a rare rain period in 1990s.The period oscillation of the rain day was 2-4 years.The rain day showed a linear decreased trend significantly.The year of the rare rain day was more after 1984 than that before.The mean annual temperature increased faintly in the recent 46 years.There was a cooler period in 1980s and a warmer period at the beginning of the 21st century.The mean temperature increased by 0.4℃ compared to the mean annual temperature.The inter-decade change between the precipitation and air temperature existed a corresponding relationship,for example,it was a pluvial and cooler period in 1980s,while it was a rare rain and warmer period at the beginning of the 21st century.

Key words: Chongqing city, Chongqing city, Climate change, Precipitation, Rain day, Air temperature