中国农业气象 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 765-777.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.12.001

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

未来升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下中国玉米产量变化趋势评估

李阔,熊伟,潘婕,林而达,李迎春,韩雪   

  1. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京 100081
  • 出版日期:2018-12-20 发布日期:2018-12-11
  • 作者简介:李阔(1982?),博士,助理研究员,研究方向为气候变化影响与适应。E-mail:likuo@caas.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点研发计划课题“关键气候因子的时空变化规律及其对玉米生产系统影响研究”(2017YFD 0300301);“十二五”国家科技支撑项目“北方重点地区适应气候变化技术开发与应用”(2013BAC09B00)

Trend Evaluation on Changes of Maize Yield in China under Global Warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃

LI Kuo, XIONG Wei, PAN Jie, LIN Er-da, LI Ying-chun, HAN Xue   

  1. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS, Beijing 100081, China
  • Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-11

摘要:

基于ISI-MIP推荐的5个气候模式在4个RCP情景下的模拟结果,筛选21世纪末全球升温最接近1.5℃和2.0℃的气候数据,运用作物模型DSSAT,模拟升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下中国玉米产量相对于基准时段1985-2006年的变化,揭示了1.5℃与2.0℃升温背景下中国玉米产量变化的空间分布。结果表明:升温2.0℃背景下玉米减产风险明显高于升温1.5℃,未来升温2.0℃背景下中国玉米减产面积比升温1.5℃背景下多6.2%,升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下中国玉米平均减产幅度分别为3.7%和11.5%;从空间分布来看,升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下未来中国玉米产量变化在区域分布上大致相似,但未来玉米增产和减产的面积和幅度不尽相同,在北方与西南玉米种植区都有一定的增产区域,其它区域大多以减产为主,其中西北部玉米种植区减幅最大;1.5℃升温背景下北方大部分地区气候条件对玉米生长有利,2.0℃升温背景下北方地区玉米减产也不明显,说明从近期到未来一段时间内,将全球升温控制在1.5℃以内,北方地区玉米仍具有一定增产潜力。

关键词: RCP情景, 升温1.5℃, 升温2.0℃, 玉米产量, 作物模型, 巴黎协定

Abstract:

Based on the simulation results from 5 climate models recommended by ISI-MIP under 4 RCP scenarios, the future climate situations were selected which are the approximate scenarios with global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. Applying DSSAT, the per unit yield changes of maize in China under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ were analyzed and the spatial distributions of changes of maize yield were revealed relative to the baseline from 1985 to 2006. The results showed that, the yield reduction area under global warming by 2.0℃ was 6.2% more than that under global warming by 1.5℃; the ratios of yield reduction were separately 3.7% and 11.5% under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃; the risk of global warming by 2.0℃ was obviously higher than 1.5℃. The spatial distributions of yield changes were similar between 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming, under which the area and magnitude of yield reduction were different. There were some regions with yield increasing under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in maize planting area of North China and Southwest China; most of the other regions in China would be mainly suffering to yield reduction; the largest reduction of maize yield would break out in Northwest China. Especially it was advantageous under global warming by 1.5℃ for maize production in North China; there was no distinct negative effect under global warming by 2.0℃ for maize production in North China. In other words, in the near future, there would be yield increasing potential for maize in North China with global warming.

Key words: RCP scenarios, Global warming by 1.5℃, Global warming by 2.0℃, Maize yield, Crop models, Paris Agreement