中国农业气象

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

用阴冷指数表征寒害程度的方法

陈汇林,霍治国,田光辉,佟金鹤   

  1. 1.海南省气象科学研究所,海口 570203;2.海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口 570203;3.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081
  • 出版日期:2019-02-20 发布日期:2019-02-16
  • 作者简介:陈汇林(1960?),学士,主要研究方向为作物气象。E-mail:hlchen0898@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206019)

Method to Characterize the Degree of Chilling Injury with the Cloudy-Cold Index

CHEN Hui-lin, HUO Zhi-guo, TIAN Guang-hui, TONG Jin-he   

  1. 1. Hainan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Haikou 570203, China; 2. Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203; 3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
  • Online:2019-02-20 Published:2019-02-16

摘要:

针对现有寒害分析在因子选取上普遍缺少表述阴雨状况的问题,提出阴冷指数模型。基于农业和气象行业专家对海南各市县阴冷程度的排序,以及海南各市县1971-2010年逐日气象数据,采用均匀试验设计方法构建能反映低温强度和阴雨寡照综合作用的阴冷指数模型。依据阴冷指数模型,计算海南各市县1971-2010年历次阴冷过程的阴冷指数,按阴冷指数从大到小序列中的10%、30%和60%划分出重度、中度和轻度3级寒害及其指标,据此分析海南寒害的分布及变化。结果表明:寒害的地域分布特征与实际业务所监测的寒害情况相吻合,寒害的年际变化在《中国气象灾害大典》寒害记载中也得到了较好的印证,说明阴冷指数模型具有一定的实际应用性,可为寒害的监测、预警和评估提供新的技术方法。

关键词: 阴冷指数, 寒害, 模型, 均匀试验

Abstract:

In view of the problem that the existing chilling injure analysis lacked the representation of the overcast and rainy condition, the cloudy-cold index model was proposed in this article. Based on the ranking of the degrees of cloudy and cold of each city and county in Hainan by the experts of agriculture and meteorology, and daily meteorological data from 1971 to 2010 in each city and county in Hainan, the cloudy-cold index model which could reflect the combined effect of low temperature intensity and rainy-sunless was constructed by using the Uniform Experiment Design method. Based on the relationship in the cloudy-cold index model, the cloudy-cold index of each cloudy-cold event in cities and counties in Hainan during the period from 1971 to 2010 was calculated. Severe, moderate and mild chilling injures and their indicators were divided by 10%, 30% and 60% of the cloudy-cold index sequence. The distribution and changes of the chilling injure in Hainan were further analyzed, and the geographical distribution characteristics of the cold disaster were consistent with the actual service of the chilling injure in practice. The yearly change of the cold disaster was well confirmed in the record of the chilling injure in the Chinese Meteorological Disaster Ceremony which showed that the model had a certain practical application, which can provide a new technical method for the monitoring, early warning and evaluation of chilling injure.

Key words: Cloudy-cold index, Chilling injury, Model, Uniform design experimentation