用阴冷指数表征寒害程度的方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.02.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对现有寒害分析在因子选取上普遍缺少表述阴雨状况的问题，提出阴冷指数模型。基于农业和气象行业专家对海南各市县阴冷程度的排序，以及海南各市县1971-2010年逐日气象数据，采用均匀试验设计方法构建能反映低温强度和阴雨寡照综合作用的阴冷指数模型。依据阴冷指数模型，计算海南各市县1971-2010年历次阴冷过程的阴冷指数，按阴冷指数从大到小序列中的10％、30％和60%划分出重度、中度和轻度3级寒害及其指标，据此分析海南寒害的分布及变化。结果表明：寒害的地域分布特征与实际业务所监测的寒害情况相吻合，寒害的年际变化在《中国气象灾害大典》寒害记载中也得到了较好的印证，说明阴冷指数模型具有一定的实际应用性，可为寒害的监测、预警和评估提供新的技术方法。

关键词: 阴冷指数, 寒害, 模型, 均匀试验

Abstract:

In view of the problem that the existing chilling injure analysis lacked the representation of the overcast and rainy condition, the cloudy-cold index model was proposed in this article. Based on the ranking of the degrees of cloudy and cold of each city and county in Hainan by the experts of agriculture and meteorology, and daily meteorological data from 1971 to 2010 in each city and county in Hainan, the cloudy-cold index model which could reflect the combined effect of low temperature intensity and rainy-sunless was constructed by using the Uniform Experiment Design method. Based on the relationship in the cloudy-cold index model, the cloudy-cold index of each cloudy-cold event in cities and counties in Hainan during the period from 1971 to 2010 was calculated. Severe, moderate and mild chilling injures and their indicators were divided by 10%, 30% and 60% of the cloudy-cold index sequence. The distribution and changes of the chilling injure in Hainan were further analyzed, and the geographical distribution characteristics of the cold disaster were consistent with the actual service of the chilling injure in practice. The yearly change of the cold disaster was well confirmed in the record of the chilling injure in the Chinese Meteorological Disaster Ceremony which showed that the model had a certain practical application, which can provide a new technical method for the monitoring, early warning and evaluation of chilling injure.

Key words: Cloudy-cold index, Chilling injury, Model, Uniform design experimentation

陈汇林，霍治国，田光辉，佟金鹤. 用阴冷指数表征寒害程度的方法[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(02): 105-113.

CHEN Hui-lin, HUO Zhi-guo, TIAN Guang-hui, TONG Jin-he. Method to Characterize the Degree of Chilling Injury with the Cloudy-Cold Index[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(02): 105-113.

参考文献

[1] 罗晓玲,张勇,汤海燕,等.冬季寒害对广东种植业的严重影响及其对策[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(1):107-113. Luo X L,Zhang Y,Tang H Y,et al.Serious influence of winter cold disaster on plantation and aquaculture in Guangdong province[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001, 10(1):107- 113.(in Chinese) [2] 刘布春,李茂松,霍治国,等.2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害对种植业的影响[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(2):242-246. Liu B C,Li M S,Huo Z G,et al.Impact of freezing rain and snow disaster on planting industry in 2008[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(2):242-246.(in Chinese) [3] 王春林,刘锦銮,周国逸,等.基于GIS技术的广东荔枝寒害监测预警研究[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(4):487-495. Wang C L,Liu J L,Zhou G Y,et al.Research on real-time cold-disaster watching and prediction in Guangdong province based on GIS technology[J].Journal of Applied Meteorolo- gical Science,2003,14(4):487-495.(in Chinese) [4] 冯秀藻,陶炳炎.农业气象学原理[M].北京:气象出版社,1991: 134-150. Feng X Z,Tao B Y.Principles of agricultural meteorology[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1991:134-150.(in Chinese) [5] 涂悦贤,黄珍珠.广东冬季气候资源优势及寒害与对策[J].热带地理,1994,14(2):118-126. Tu Y X,Huang Z Z.A study on climatic resources and chilling injury during winter in Guangdong province[J].Tropical Geography,1994,14(2):118-126.(in Chinese) [6] 李世奎,霍治国,王素艳,等.农业气象灾害风险评估体系及模型研究[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(1):77-87. Li S K,Huo Z G,Wang S Y,et al.Risk evaluation system and models of agrometeorological disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2004,13(1):77-87.(in Chinese) [7] 刘玲,高素华,黄增明.广东冬季寒害对香蕉产量的影响[J].气象,2003,29(10):46-50. Liu L,Gao S H,Huang Z M.Impacts of cool injury in winter on banana yields in Guangdong province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(10):46-50.(in Chinese) [8] 杜尧东,毛慧勤,刘锦銮.华南地区寒害概率分布模型研究[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2):103-107. Du Y D,Mao H Q,Liu J L.Study on probability distribution models of chilling injury in South China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(2):103-107.(in Chinese) [9] 植石群,刘锦銮,杜尧东,等.广东省香蕉寒害风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2):113-116. Zhi S Q,Liu J L,Du Y D,et al.Risk analysis of chilling injury to banana in Guangdong province[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(2):113-116.(in Chinese) [10] 刘锦銮,杜尧东,毛慧琴.华南地区荔枝寒害风险分析与区划[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(3):126-130. Liu J L,Du Y D,Mao H Q.Risk analysis and regionalization of chilling injury to litchi in South China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(3):126-130.(in Chinese) [11] 王春林,刘锦銮,曾侠,等.近50年来广东冬季寒害的特征[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(4):121-127. Wang C L,Liu J L,Zen X,et al.Characteristics of recent 50 year's chilling injury in winter in Guangdong[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2004,13(4):121-127.(in Chinese) [12] 广东省气象局资料室.广东气候[M].广州:广东科技出版社,1987. Data Room of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau. Guang- dong climate[M].Guangzhou:Guangdong Science &Techno- logy Press,1987.(in Chinese) [13] 冯颖竹,梁红,黄璜.广东冬季寒害指标研究[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(1):59-65. Feng Y Z,Liang H,Huang H.Study on index for winter’s chilling in Guangdong province[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(1):59-65.(in Chinese) [14] 杜尧东,李春梅,毛慧琴.广东省香蕉与荔枝寒害致灾因子和综合气候指标研究[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(2):225-230. Du Y D,Li C M,Mao H Q.Disaster-inducing factors and integrated climatic index for banana and litchi chilling injuries in Guangdong province[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2006,25(2):225-230.(in Chinese) [15] 霍治国,杜尧东,姜燕.QX/T 80-2007 香蕉,荔枝寒害等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2007. Huo Z G,Du Y D,Jiang Y.QX/T 80-2007 grade of chilling injury for banana and litchi[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2007.(in Chinese) [16] 余会康,郭建平,赵俊芳.华南龙眼寒害时空分布特征分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(6):60-68. Yu H K,Guo J P,Zhao J F.Analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the longan cold damage in Southern China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Reso- urces and Regional Planning,2015,36(6):60-68.(in Chinese) [17] 王春乙,张亚杰,张京红,等.海南省芒果寒害气象指数保险费率厘定及保险合同设计研究[J].气象与环境科学,2016, 39(1):108-113. Wang C Y,Zhang Y J,Zhang J H,et al.Determination of the premium rate based on the weather indices of chilling injury in mangoes and contract design in Hainan Province[J]. Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2016, 39(1): 108-113.(in Chinese) [18] 匡昭敏,潘学标,李莉,等.1961-2008年广西经济林果寒害演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(s1):201-208. Kuang Z M,Pan X B,Li L,et al.Evolution characteristics of cold damage of economic forest fruits in Guangxi during 1961 to 2008[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2012,28(s1): 201-208.(in Chinese) [19] 王灿,杨建峰,陈小敏,等.基于因子分析的胡椒寒害气象等级研究[J].热带作物学报,2015,36(12):2171-2178. Wang C,Yang J F,Chen X M,et al.Classification of black pepper chilling injury based on factor analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops,2015,36(12):2171-2178.(in Chinese) [20] 李世奎,霍治国,王道龙,等.中国农业灾害风险评价与对策[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:91-95. Li S K,Huo Z G,Wang D L,et al.Risk assessment and countermeasures of agricultural disasters in China[M]. Beijing:China Meteorology Press,1999:91- 95.(in Chinese) [21] 林萍,陈道松,冯文.2008年海南罕见长"低温阴雨"天气过程成因分析[J].热带作物学报,2009,30(10):1546-1552. Lin P,Chen D S,Feng W.Formation of the rare long-term cold and rainy weather process in 2008 in Hainan[J].Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops,2009,30(10):1546-1552.(in Chinese) [22] 陈瑶,谭志坚,樊佳庆,等.橡胶树寒害气象等级研究[J].热带农业科技,2013,36(2):7-11. Chen Y,Tan Z J,Fan J Q,et al.Classification of chilling injury in hevea rubber based on meteorological conditions [J].Tropical Agricultural Science & Technology,2013, 36(2): 7-11.(in Chinese) [23] 方开泰.均匀试验设计的理论、方法和应用:历史回顾[J].数理统计与管理,2004,23(3):69-80. Fang K T.Theory method and application of uniform experimental design:a historical review[J].Journal of Applied Statistics and Management,2004,23(3):69-80.(in Chinese) [24] 李云雁,胡传荣.试验设计与数据处理[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2008:162-170. Li Y Y,Hu C R.Experiment design and data processing[M]. Beijing:Chemical?Industry?Press,2008:162-170.(in Chinese) [25] 吴岩峻等.中国气象灾害大典·海南卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:16-65. Wu Y J,et al.China meteorological disaster·Hainan[M]. Beijing:China Meteorology Press,2008:16-65.(in Chinese) [26] 熊宇,刁家敏,薛晓萍,等.持续寡照对冬季日光温室黄瓜生长及抗氧化酶活性的影响[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(9): 537-547. Xiong Y,Diao J M,Xue X P,et al.Effects of continuous overcast weather on cucumber growth and antioxidant enzyme activities in glasshouse[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(9):537-547.(in Chinese)