关键词: 甘蔗, 伸长量, Richards函数, 模拟, 预测

Abstract: Using the data of sugarcane stem elongation and corresponding meteorological data in stem elongating stage of newplanting sugarcane in Gengma county, Yunnan province from 2007 to 2010, the effects of meteorological factors on elongation of sugarcane were analyzed. The results showed that accumulated temperature (Ta), average temperature (T), rainfall (R) and sunshine hours (S) were the main factors that affected elongation of sugarcane. The first three factors were positive correlated with elongation of sugarcane at α=0.05 or α=0.01 levels. It was indicated that better rain, heat and light conditions were in favor of promoting elongation of sugarcane. The elongation of sugarcane was fitted with ten day Ta,〖JP3〗 T, R, S and corresponding growing days (D) from 2007 to 2009 by Richards function, and the comprehensive forecasting model was established.The absolute error of forecasting for ten day elongation of sugarcane stem in 2010 was 0.0~ 11.0cm with the average of 3.4cm. The results suggested that the forecasting model has a certain practicality.

Key words: Sugarcane, Elongation, Richards function, Simulation, Prediction