气候变化对东北玉米干旱指数保险纯费率厘定的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于东北三省68个气象站1961-2010年的逐日气象数据，利用Penmen Monteith公式计算玉米生育期内的逐日参考作物蒸散量，结合逐日降水量资料构建干旱指数（CWD）；将整个分析期按照3个准30a周期（1961-1990、1971-2000和1981-2010年）进行统计，计算不同周期内东北地区CWD的理论概率分布函数，分别求得累积概率≤5%、≤15%和≤25%时各站的CWD值作为重旱、中旱和轻旱划分标准的阈值，并以不同时间尺度分别厘定保险纯费率；对3个时段的结果进行对比，以分析气候变化对干旱指数保险产品纯费率厘定的影响。结果表明，干旱指数CWD能很好地指示东北玉米干旱风险，1961-2010玉米生育期内全区干旱风险由东向西递增，西部为常年干旱区；各时段内多数站点表现为旱情加重；从重灾到轻灾，旱情加重的站点减少而旱情减轻的站点增多；基于CWD厘定的玉米旱灾保险纯费率与单产减产率的厘定结果近似（相关系数0.893），时间变化上表现为先增后降。这说明一种公平科学的保险纯费率应考虑气候变化的影响，随各时段灾害风险的不同作适当调整。

关键词: 干旱指数, 天气指数保险, 气候变化, 费率

Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological data of 68 stations in Northeast China during 1961-2010， daily reference evapotranspiration during maize growing duration was calculated by using PenmanMonteith formula. Combined with daily precipitation， a indicator crop water deficit （CWD） was designed to indicate drought risk. The whole analysis period was divided into three 30year period （1961-1990，1971-2000 and 1981-2010）. The probability distribution function of CWD was built and critical value of CWD was calculated with cumulative probability ≤5%,≤15% and ≤25%，respectively. These values were set as a division criterion of severe drought，moderate drought and slight drought and used to calculate pure premium rate according to different time scales. CWD was proved to be able to indicate drought risk of maize well in Northeast China. The investigation showed that drought risk of whole region increased from east to west during the period of 1961-2010，and the western region was taking drought risk throughout these years. Most stations showed a drought aggravation and the number of stations was decreasing from severe drought to slight drought. Pure premium rate based on CWD was close to the results based on yield loss （correlation coefficient was 0.893），and it performed a decreasing trend after increasing in time series. Therefore，fair and scientific premium rate should be calculated considering the impact of climate change and appropriate adjustments should be made according to drought risk of each period．

Key words: Crop water deficit, Weather Index Insurance, Climate change, Premium rate

杨帆，刘布春，刘园，杨晓娟. 气候变化对东北玉米干旱指数保险纯费率厘定的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(03): 346-355.

YANG Fan， LIU Bu chun， LIU Yuan， YANG Xiao juan. Impact of Climate Change on Pure Premium Rating of Drought Index Insurance for Maize in Northeast China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(03): 346-355.

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