基于作物模型与最佳季节法的锦州地区玉米最佳播种期分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.01.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了探究锦州地区平均气候状态下玉米最佳播期，同时检验作物模型法和最佳季节法确定最佳播期的适用性，利用辽宁锦州农田试验站3a分期播种试验数据，在对作物生长模型CERES-Maize进行参数校正与模拟效果检验的基础上，应用模型模拟不同播期下玉米30a（1981-2010年）的产量，同时应用最佳季节法分析该地区的玉米最佳播期，结合作物模型法的研究结果，提出对最佳季节法的改进办法。结果表明：CERES-Maize模型能够较好地模拟不同播期玉米的物候期和产量，其归一化均方根误差（NRMSE）小于10.3%，对不同播期下30a的产量模拟结果显示，当播期从4月10日推迟至5月10日，玉米平均产量增加6%，当播期从5月10日推迟至5月30日，玉米产量中值从9112kg·hm-2降至8619kg·hm-2，4月25日和4月30日播种玉米的平均产量与5月10日播种的玉米产量无显著差异。结果显示最佳季节法确定的锦州地区玉米最佳播期较为滞后，与作物模型法的研究结果及实际生产的播期有较大出入，因此，提出了对最佳季节法的改进办法即将灌浆期间的不利气温条件考虑在内，改进后得到的最佳播期与作物模型法研究结果较一致。从30a平均气候状况看，该地区玉米的最佳播期在4月25日-5月10日，作物模型法有较好的适用性，最佳季节法经过改进后也可实际应用。

关键词: CERES-Maize模型, 最佳播期, 最佳季节法

Abstract:

To investigate the maize optimum sowing date under the average climate pattern in Jinzhou as well as evaluate the adaptability of crop growth model method and optimum season method, three years’ experimental data collected during 2011-2013 growing season conducted in Jinzhou crop site was employed in this study to validate the cultivar parameters and evaluate the model. Eight planting dates were simulated using 30 years of historical weather data from Jinzhou meteorological observational site to analyze the effect of different sowing dates on maize yield. Optimum season method was also used to investigate the optimum sowing date of maize in this site. An improved method was proposed to improve the ability of optimum season method. The evaluation of CERES-Maize showed that the model was able to simulated penology and grain yield accurately, with normalized RMSE less than 10.3%. The sowing date analysis showed that a delayed planting date from April 30 to May 10 caused an increase in average yield of 6%. Maize median yield decreased from 9112kg·ha-1 to 8619 kg·ha-1 when planting date delayed from May 10 to May 30. The yield of sowing date at 10 May had no significant difference with that of sowing at 20 April and 25 April. The optimum sowing date determined by optimum season analysis method was delayed, comparing to that determined by the crop model method and actual planting date. So an improved method was proposed, which took the unfavorable temperature during grain filling into account. Then the results were accordance with the real situation. In conclusion, the optimum sowing date of maize in this region was from 25 April to 10 May. The results could provide a reference and scientific basis for determining optimum sowing date of maize.

Key words: CERES-Maize model, Optimum sowing date, Optimum season method

米娜，张玉书，纪瑞鹏，蔡福，于文颖，张淑杰. 基于作物模型与最佳季节法的锦州地区玉米最佳播种期分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(01): 68-76.

Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China meteorological Administration (Shenyang), Shenyang 110166, China. Analysis on Optimum Sowing Date of Maize in Jinzhou Using Crop Growth Model and Optimum Season Method[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(01): 68-76.

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