华北平原冬小麦主要发育阶段日数对温度变化的敏感性分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.04.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化背景下，作物发育阶段日数发生了明显变化，其对温度变化的敏感性也成为气候变化对农业影响研究的重要内容。针对现有温度敏感性研究的不足，本文提出相对敏感性的概念，并以此分析华北平原冬小麦敏感性的时空分布特征。利用65个农业气象观测站1980-2012年冬小麦发育期观测资料及同期逐日平均气温数据，将发育期分为播种-越冬、越冬-返青、返青-抽穗和抽穗-成熟4个主要发育阶段，采用线性回归方法计算各阶段发育期日数对温度变化的相对敏感性，并用GIS空间插值方法研究相应指标的时空变化特征。结果表明：(1)各发育阶段平均温度均呈上升趋势，不同发育阶段日数具有明显的区域分布规律；(2)播种-越冬期对温度的敏感性为-0.113～0.029℃-1，区域平均-0.040℃-1，该期敏感性呈中间高两端低的区域分布特征，且敏感性具有一定的普遍性；(3)越冬-返青期敏感性为-0.081～0.091℃-1，平均0.013℃-1。该期敏感性区域波动大，但无明显区域特征，敏感性的稳定程度也较弱；(4)返青-抽穗期敏感性在-0.112～-0.035℃-1，平均-0.074℃-1。敏感性无明显区域特征，但敏感性的稳定性高；(5)抽穗-成熟期敏感性在-0.114～0.014℃-1，平均-0.042℃-1，呈显著的南高北低的空间分布特征，在区域上具有很强的稳定性。总体上，不同发育阶段对温度的敏感性差异较大，且敏感性具有明显的区域分布特征。

关键词: 气候变化, 发育阶段日数, 温度的相对敏感性, 区域分布规律, 时间分布特征

Abstract:

Under the condition of climate change, crop growth duration changed substantially. As a result, sensitivity of crop growth duration to temperature becomes an important part of the research of climate change impact on agriculture. Aiming to overcome shortcoming of the existing research about sensitivity, this paper put forward the concept of relative sensitivity and applied in North China Plain (NCP) to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of winter wheat. Using winter wheat phenology observation and daily-average temperature data from 65 agricultural meteorological observation stations in the NCP during 1980-2012, the changes of growth duration and average temperature during 4 major growth periods were calculated, including sowing to the start of overwintering (S-O), the start of overwintering to turning green (O-T), turning green to hearing (T-H) and heading to maturity (H-M). Based on the calculation, relative sensitivity of growth duration to temperature was calculated. Linear regression and GIS spatial interpolation were used to explain the results. Results showed that: (1) average temperature increased during all four growth period. Growth duration varied substantially spatially and temporally; (2) For the period S-O, sensitivity varied from -0.113 to 0.029℃-1, with an average of -0.040℃-1. Sensitivity is fairly stable during this period. Generally, middle plain is more sensitive than the north and south plain; (3) For the period O-T, sensitivity varied from -0.081 to 0.091℃-1, with an average of 0.013℃-1. Sensitivity is not stable for most stations and varied much among different stations; (4) For the period T-H, sensitivity varied from -0.112 to -0.035℃-1, with an average of -0.074℃-1. Value of sensitivity has no obvious regional distribution, but the stability of sensitivity is extremely high; (5) For the period H-M, sensitivity varied from -0.114 to 0.014℃-1, with an average of -0.042℃-1. The south plain is more sensitivity than the north. Stability of sensitivity is very high during this period. Temperature sensitivity is varied substantially among different developmental stages, and also varied significantly in different region. This study promotes understanding of regional crop response to climate change and varieties shift, and provides scientific basis for simulating phenology and hence yield response to future climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Growth duration, Relative sensitivity to temperature, Spatial pattern, Temporal pattern

高静，邬定荣，王培娟，陈京华，闫峰，赵煜飞，王佳强. 华北平原冬小麦主要发育阶段日数对温度变化的敏感性分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(04): 431-436.

GAO Jing, Wu Ding-rong, WANG Pei-juan,CHEN Jing-hua, YAN Feng, ZHAO Yu-fei, WANG Jia-qiang. Relative Sensitivity of Main Growth Durations to Temperature for Winter Wheat in North China Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(04): 431-436.

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