基于SWAT模型分析岷沱江流域蓝/绿水资源量的时空变化特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2020.06.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于SWAT模型，从不同土地利用类型及水文循环的角度出发，模拟大流域尺度下岷沱江流域1981-2014年的蓝水（地表径流、土壤中流和地下径流）、绿水（蒸散用水和土壤含水）资源量，探究岷沱江流域的蓝/绿水时空分布特征，采用Man-Kendall（M-K）检验法分析年际间水资源量变化趋势，模拟不同土地利用情景下的蓝/绿水资源量变化规律。结果表明：（1）1981-2014年，岷沱江流域的绿水资源量有所增加，M-K统计值为0.0232，未通过M-K置信度为90%的显著性检验；蓝水资源量和流域降水量呈减少趋势，M-K统计值分别为-0.1729、-0.1087，均未通过M-K置信度为90%的显著性检验，线性变化趋势均不显著；（2）空间上，流域内蓝/绿水资源量均自北向南先逐渐增加后减少，即中游最多，下游次之，上游最少。（3）在岷沱江流域降水减少的情况下，林地、草地中蓝水资源量波动减少，绿水资源缓慢增加，且在不同土地利用类型中，蓝/绿水资源量差异明显，表现为耕地＞林地＞草地，其中耕地面积仅占流域总面积的25%，但对蓝/绿水资源量的贡献率最高。建议加强对岷沱江流域耕地的管理，合理利用中下游蓝/绿水资源，对上游干旱、半干旱地区实施绿水信贷补偿措施，以达到区域水资源优化配置。

关键词: SWAT模型, 岷沱江流域, 土地利用, 蓝水, 绿水, M-K检验

Abstract: In recent years, the influenced by global climate change and common human activities, the hydrological cycle has changed into different degrees. In order to better understand the role of water resources in terrestrial ecosystems, the concepts of blue water and green water have been introduced. However, the traditional water resources assessment often focuses on the amount of blue water resources (surface runoff, soil runoff and underground runoff), and the green water (evapotranspiration water and soil water) which is important for the maintenance of terrestrial ecosystems is often neglected. The ecological process of the basin is organically coupled with the water cycle process of the basin through the link of blue and green water, which makes the water cycle and ecological process closely linked, and also reflects the relationship between vegetation and hydrological process.Therefore, this article is based on SWAT model, from the perspective of different land use types and the hydrologic cycle, simulation of large scale he river the blue water, green water resources in 1981-2014, explore he blue green water in time and space distribution characteristics of Min-Tuo river basin, the Man-Kendall (M-K) annual inspection analysis between water resources quantity change trend, simulation of blue green water resources under different land use scenarios. The results showed that :(1)from 1981 to 2014, the amount of green water resources in the Min-Tuo river basin increased, and the M-K statistical value was 0.0232, failing the significance test of M-K confidence degree of 90%. The blue water resources and precipitation in the basin showed a decreasing trend, and the M-K statistical values were -0.1729 and-0.1087, respectively, which failed to pass the significance test of M-K confidence degree of 90%, and the linear variation trend was not significant. (2) The spatial distribution trend of annual precipitation and blue and green water resources in the Min-Tuo river basin from 1981 to 2014 was basically the same. The amount of blue and green water resources in the basin gradually increased from north to south and then decreased, that is, the amount in the middle reaches was the most, followed by the amount in the downstream, and the amount in the upstream was the least. (3) The whole Min-Tuo river basin under the condition of rainfall, forest land, grass blue water resource fluctuations decrease, green water resources increase slowly, and in different land use types, blue, green water resource differences apparent, characterized by cultivated land > forest land > grassland, including arable land accounts for only 25% of total area of the basin, but the blue and green water resource of the contribution of the highest. It is proposed to strengthen the management of cultivated land in the Min-Tuo river basin, rationallutilize the blue and green water resources in the middle and lower reaches, and implement green water credit compensation measures in the arid and semi-arid areas in the upper reaches, so as to optimize the allocation of regional water resources.

Key words: SWAT model, Min-Tuo River Basin, Land use, Blue water, Green water, M-K test

中图分类号:

张洋，邓玉，倪福全，聂超，马捷. 基于SWAT模型分析岷沱江流域蓝/绿水资源量的时空变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2020, 41(06): 345-356.

ZHANG Yang, DENG Yu, NI Fu-quan, NIE Chao, MA Jie. Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Blue and Green Water Resources in Min-Tuo River Basin were Analyzed Based on SWAT Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2020, 41(06): 345-356.

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