关键词: 水稻, 连阴雨, 减产率, 保险纯费率, 概率

Abstract: Continuous rain is a limiting factor affecting the growth and drying of rice from the middle and late stages of growth to the harvest stage. It is of great significance to study the pure premium rates of continuous rain insurance for reducing the risk of agro-meteorological disasters. In this study, rice yield data and meteorological data from 16 counties (city) in Qiandongnan prefecture from 1980 to 2020 were used to construct rice yield reduction model based on continuous rain. Based on the goodness of fit test method, the optimal models of each county (city) were selected from 6 distribution models to estimate the probability of continuous rainy disaster. The pure premium rates were determined by combining the probability of continuous rain and the yield reduction rate. The result showed that the linear relationship between continuous rain index and yield reduction was Y_r=6.66CRI+4.12, and the yield reduction of rice was increased with the increase of continuous rainy composite index. The probability of continuous rain was decreased with the increase of disaster degree, each county (city) had the 30%−50% probability of mild continuous rain, and the probability of moderate and severe continuous rain were 10%−30% and 0−3%, respectively, the probability of moderate and severe continuous rain were higher in high elevation areas such as Majiang and Huangping. The pure premium rates of 16 counties (city) were between 7.38% and 10.47%, and the pure premium rates of Majiang and Huangping in the northwest were higher, above 9.5%.

Key words: Rice, Continuous rain, Yield reduction rate, Pure premium rate, Probability