中国农业气象 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4): 592-602.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.04.010

• 农业气象灾害栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

成都平原经济区臭氧污染对水稻减产及经济损失评估

张净雯，王明田，赵欢   

  1. 1. 成都市气象局，成都 611130，2. 四川省气象台，成都 610072
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-18 出版日期:2026-04-20 发布日期:2026-04-18
  • 作者简介:张净雯，E-mail：407213447@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目（2024YFD2301305）

Evaluating Ozone−induced Rice Yield Losses and Associated Economic Impacts in the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone, China

ZHANG Jing-wen, WANG Ming-tian, ZHAO Huan   

  1. 1. Chengdu Meteorological Bureau, Chengdu 611130, China; 2. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072
  • Received:2025-03-18 Online:2026-04-20 Published:2026-04-18

PDF (PC)

17

摘要：

利用2015−2022年成都平原经济区8市水稻生长季国家级环境空气质量监测站地面臭氧（O3）小时浓度，分析不同时间尺度下O3小时浓度、剂量指标（AOT40）的时空变化特征，评估2015−2022年成都平原经济区O3污染对水稻产量的影响及其经济损失，揭示成都平原经济区水稻生长季的O3污染规律，为科学制定污染防控策略提供依据。结果表明：2015−2022年成都平原经济区日平均O3小时浓度呈明显的单峰型变化特征，其中成都的峰值最高，为145.1μg·m−3，年平均O3小时浓度表现为波动上升变化趋势，区域增幅为21.6μg·m−3；空间分布上，区域年平均O3小时浓度按大小排序呈Ⅰ区（成都、德阳、眉山）＞Ⅱ区（绵阳、遂宁、资阳）＞Ⅲ区（乐山、雅安），资阳年平均O3小时浓度最大，为79.5μg·m−3，雅安最小，为67.5μg·m−3。2015−2022年成都平原经济区的AOT40年变化趋势与O3小时浓度基本一致，但AOT40较O3小时浓度峰值提前、谷值滞后，2022年区域平均AOT40较2015年增加2.7×10−3mL·L−1·h。2015−2022年成都年平均AOT40最高，为8.0×10−3mL·L−1·h，雅安最低，为1.4×10−3mL·L−1·h。2015−2022年O3污染导致成都平原经济区水稻减产231.3万t，占实际总产量的4.9%，年均经济损失达7.62亿元。综上，成都平原经济区O3污染已对粮食安全构成威胁，未来需采取有效的减排措施，降低O3污染对农业的负面影响，以保障区域粮食安全。

关键词: 臭氧, AOT40, 水稻, 产量, 经济损失

Abstract:

Based on the hourly ground−level ozone (O3) concentration data from national environmental air quality monitoring stations during the rice−growing season in eight cities of the Chengdu plain economic zone (CPEZ) from 2015 to 2022, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of O3 hourly concentration and the dose−based metric (AOT40) on different time scales. The impact of O3 pollution on rice yield and associated economic losses in the CPEZ from 2015 to 2022 was evaluated, revealing the characteristics of O3 pollution during the rice−growing season and providing a scientific basis for pollution control strategies. The results indicated that the daily average O3 hourly concentration in the CPEZ from 2015 to 2022 exhibited a distinct unimodal pattern, with the highest peak value in Chengdu reaching 145.1μg·m−3.During the same period, the annual average O3 hourly concentration displayed a fluctuating upward trend, with a regional increase of 21.6μg·m−3. Spatially, the annual average O3 hourly concentration decreased in the order of Zone I (Chengdu, Deyang, Meishan)>Zone II (Mianyang, Suining, Ziyang)>Zone III (Leshan, Ya’an). Ziyang recorded the highest annual average O3 concentration of 79.5μg·m−3, while Ya’an had the lowest at 67.5μg·m−3. From 2015 to 2022, the the annual trend of AOT40 in the CPEZ generally followed a pattern consistent with that of the O3 hourly concentration, although the AOT40 peak occurred earlier and its trough lagged behind those of O3 concentration. In 2022, the regional average AOT40 increased by 2.7×10−3mL·L−1·h compared to that in 2015. Among these eight cities, Chengdu exhibited the highest annual average AOT40 at 8.0×10−3mL·L−1·h, whereas Ya’an had the lowest at 1.4×10−3mL·L−1·h. O3 pollution caused a cumulative reduction of 2.313 million metric tons of rice yield in the CPEZ, accounting for 4.9% of the actual total production, with an average annual economic loss reaching 762 million yuan. In summary, the findings reveal that O3 pollution in the CPEZ has already posed a significant threat to regional food security. In future, it is urgent to take effective emission−reduction measures to mitigate the negative impact of O3 pollution on agriculture and safeguard regional food security. 

Key words: Ozone, AOT40, Rice, Yield, Economic loss

版权所有 © 《中国农业气象》编辑部
地址：北京中关村南大街12号中国农科院环发所　邮编：100081
电话：010-82109772;82109774　 Email：lliuyuan@caas.cn; zgnyqx@caas.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发