关键词: 极端气温, 农业保险, 农作物产量, 农户收入波动, 赔付预期

Abstract:

The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has resulted in increased risks to agricultural production. Exploring the response effects of agricultural insurance from the perspective of risk diversification is of great practical importance for promoting sustainable agricultural development. This study selected panel data on agricultural activities from 2001 to 2022 in 220 sample cities in 4 municipalities directly under the central government, 22 provinces and 5 autonomous regions in China. Based on the indicators of extreme low temperature and extreme high temperature, a two-way fixed effects model and mediation mechanism test were used to analyze the impact of extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature events on farmers' willingness to participate in agricultural insurance in 220 sample cities in China from 2001 to 2022. The aim was to provide empirical evidence for expanding the decision−making theory of farmer insurance participation in extreme climate scenarios, for optimizing the design of agricultural insurance climate indicators, for improving differentiated subsidy policies, and for constructing a climate-adaptive agricultural risk protection systems. The results showed that: (1) the regression coefficient of extreme high temperatures on agricultural insurance participation in 220 sample cities in China from 2001 to 2022 was 0.24, but did not reach a significant level. Extreme low temperatures had a promoting effect on farmers' participation in agricultural insurance, with a regression coefficient of 0.63 (P<0.01). For every 1 percentage point in the frequency of extreme low temperature events that year, farmers' participation in agricultural insurance increased by 0.63 percentage point. (2) Extreme low temperatures promoted farmers' willingness to participate in agricultural insurance by affecting agricultural planting losses and increasing their expectations for insurance compensation. Extreme low temperatures had a significant negative impact on total crop yield (P<0.05), a highly significant positive impact on rural residents' disposable income (P<0.01), and a significant positive impact on agricultural insurance compensation expectations (P<0.05). Extreme high temperatures had not yet formed a significant impact pathway on farmers' willingness to participate in agricultural insurance. (3) The impact of extreme temperature events on agricultural insurance participation in inland cities was significantly higher than that in coastal cities. Among them, the significant positive effects of extreme low temperature (P<0.01) and extreme high temperature (P<0.05) on farmers' agricultural insurance participation in inland cities were more prominent than those in coastal cities. (4) From the perspective of grain functional areas, extreme low temperatures had a significant impact on the agricultural insurance demand in the main grain production areas (P<0.01) and main sales areas (P<0.05), but had no significant impact on the production and sales balance areas. Extreme high temperatures had a significant positive impact on the agricultural insurance demand in the production and sales balance areas (P<0.01), but had no significant impact on the main production areas and main sales areas. Overall, this study reveals the mechanism and heterogeneity of impact of extreme temperatures on agricultural insurance participation, providing a reference for improving differentiated agricultural insurance policy design, strengthening climate risk response capabilities, and ensuring national food security. 

Key words: Extreme temperatures, Agricultural insurance, Crop yield, Fluctuations of farmers' incomes, Expected compensation