关键词: 冬小麦, 气候生产力, 动态模拟模型

Abstract: Accroding to the close relationships between photosynthesis character of crop colony and climatic ecological environment, the climatic productivity of crop may be divided into two parts including the'potential term' and the 'Iimiting term'. The'potential term' means the crop productive level and its variance determined by macroscopic climatic conditions, but the'Iimiting term' means limiting factors from risk or restriction of ecological conditions. Therefore, a new structure of simulation model to estimate both the potential and limiting term of macroscopic climatic productivity of winter wheat was established successfully based on the field experiment data from 1985 to 1989 (Guanzhong Plain, Shaanxi Province). The simulating yields is very similar to actual yields, the mean relative error is less 5% , the simulation results show a new approach of forecasting crop yield and suitablity to operational system.

Key words: NULL, NULL