关键词: 农业干旱事件, 分析, 预报

Abstract: Accorded to the crop growth rules, we formulated the standard of the drought event with agricultural department together and analyzed the drought distribution from the aspect of meteorology. It was concluded that there were three kinds of important weather types led to the drought event, e.g. latitude circulation, continent high pressure control and subtropical high west enter control type. Based on the analysis of the relation of drought event occurrences from 1964 to 2003 with the monthly average temperature of sea surface in the Northwest Pacific Region, the annual mean vortex intensity in the Northern Hemisphere and the temperature change in winter, the forecast equation of the drought event was established by using the optimized subset regression method. The forecast results were walidated for 2004 and 2005 with highly coherence.

Key words: Agriculture drought event, Agriculture drought event, Analysis, Forecast