中国农业气象

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广东省香蕉寒害综合指数的时空分布特征

杜尧东;李春梅;毛慧琴;唐力生;   

  1. 广东省气候中心;中国科学院大气物理研究所;
  • 出版日期:2008-08-10 发布日期:2008-08-10
  • 基金资助:
    “十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目“农业重大气象灾害监测预警与调控技术研究”(2006BAD04B03);; 中国气象局气象新技术推广项目“华南寒害影响定量评估技术应用研究”(CMATG2007M21);; 广州区域气象中心重点项目“广州区域气候变化监测、检测和预估系统”(GRMC2007Z02);; 广东省气象局重点项目“区域特色农业开发的气候问题研究”(2006A03)

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Integrated Chilling Injury Index for Banana in Guangdong Province

DU Yao-dong1,LI Chun-mei1,MAO Hui-qin2,TANG Li-sheng1(1.Climate Center of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510080,China;2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)   

  • Online:2008-08-10 Published:2008-08-10

摘要: 根据广东省77个站1962-2006年冬季气候资料,计算了全省香蕉寒害综合指数,并对其进行了经验正交函数分解和小波分析。结果表明,全省香蕉寒害综合指数的空间分布以总体一致型为主,此外,还呈现粤北珠三角-粤东粤西差异型。香蕉寒害波动20世纪70年代最强,60年代次之,80年代最弱,90年代又有所增强。对时间系数进行小波分析发现,第一特征向量时间系数70年代和90年代2~4 a周期表现显著。第二特征向量时间系数70年代和90年代具有显著的2~4 a周期,80年代具有显著的6~8 a周期。这一结果为香蕉寒害的区划、评估和预测等奠定了基础。

关键词: 香蕉寒害综合指数, 分布特征, 经验正交函数, 小波分析

Abstract: Based on the winter meteorological data in 1962-2003 in 77 meteorological stations in Guangdong Province.The integrated chilling injury index for banana was calculated and validated by the Empirical Orthogonal Function and the Wavelet Analysis methods.The results showed that the integrated chilling injury index for banana throughout the Guangdong Province mainly assumed the spatial distribution patterns in a whole consistency as well as in difference between the North Pearl River Delta and the East-west of Guangdong Province.The fluctuation of the integrated chilling injury index for banana was strongest in 1970's and then in 1960's,while it was the weakest in 1980's and gradually became stronger in 1990's.It was found by Wavelet Analysis that the temporal coefficient of the first eigenvector significantly showed a two-four years period in 1970's and in 1990's.The temporal coefficient of the second eigenvector significantly showed a two-four years period in 1970's and in 1990's as well,while it significantly showed a six-eight years period in 1980's.The results would provide foundation for regionalization,evaluation and prediction of the banana chilling injury.

Key words: Integrated chilling injury index for banana, Integrated chilling injury index for banana, Distributional characteristic, Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF), Wavelet Analysis