关键词: 陕西, 始花期, 预测模型, 气候变化

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data from 2000 to 2008,the date of the beginning of the apple flowering period and the data of apple phenology in the six phonological observation stations in Shaanxi Province,the prediction model for the beginning of the apple flowering period was statistically established. The statistic equation could be described as Y=-1.4T1-1.13T2+0.11r+95.1(n=42,R=0.84,F=29>F0.01),where T1 and T2 was the average monthly temperature in January and March respectively. r was the sunlight amount in the latest ten days of March. The correction was made after the comparison of predicting results with the observation combing the analysis of meteorological conditions before the flowering period. The date of the beginning of the apple flowering period advanced one to five days in the fruit growing areas of Shaanxi Province according to the predicting temperature variation trend in winter and spring.

Key words: Shaanxi Province, Shaanxi Province, Beginning of flowering period, Prediction model, Climatic change