关键词: 气候变化, 气候生产潜力, 云南

Abstract: In order to analyze how did climate changes of Yunnan affect climatic potential productivity(TSPV),the spatial distribution and annual change of TSPV were concluded from the average annual temperature, annual precipitation and Thornthwaite Memorial Model of 117 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2009,and TSPV changes were simulated in the background of climate changes in the future.The results showed that the average TSPV of Yunnan province was 1439.2 g m-2 per year,the lowest was in northeast and northwest,and the highest was in southeast and southwest.Generally speaking,for nearly 49 years the average of Yunnan province and annual change of each station was not prominent.The usage of TSPV in Yunnan province was low;the actual output of grain was only 19 percent of TSPV in average.In the background of obviously growing temperature,slightly decreasing precipitation and large annual changes,the correlation coefficient between TSPV and precipitation was more than that of TSPV and temperature.Precipitation was the main restricted factors to TSPV.The sensitivity analysis showed that the warm and wet climate would benefit to the TSPV,while the cold and dry climate would make an adverse impact on the TSPV in the future.And in the future,the warm and dry climate would come into being more easily,then TSPV would decrease,and it would be adverse to agricultural growth.

Key words: Climate change, Climate change, Climatic potential productivity, Yunnan