中国农业气象 ›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (01): 23-27.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于小波分析的西安降水时间序列的变化特征

邱海军;曹明明;曾彬;   

  1. 西北大学城市与环境学院;
  • 出版日期:2011-02-10 发布日期:2011-02-10
  • 基金资助:

    陕西省“13115”科技创新工程重大科技专项项目(2008ZDKG-75);; 西北大学研究生创新基金(08YZZ27)

Wavelet Analysis on the Temporal Series of Precipitation in Xi'an

QIU Hai-jun,CAO Ming-ming,ZENG Bin(College of Urban and Environment Science,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China)   

  • Online:2011-02-10 Published:2011-02-10

摘要: 应用墨西哥帽小波函数进行小波变换,对西安市45a(1961-2005年)来的降水量数据进行分析,计算小波方差,从而研究西安市降水变化的时间及其周期变化特征。通过对西安市的降水时间序列的小波分析,揭示其在不同层次上的降水结构和异常变化规律以及突变特征,预测了西安市四季降水量以及年降水量的变化趋势。特别是通过小波分析的预测结果在2009和2010年出现的关中地区大面积的春旱以及2005年以后出现的秋涝中得到验证,这对认识西安市降水特征以及对西安地区的农业生产和渭河防迅工作具有重要的参考价值和指导意义。45a来,除西安市春季降水量呈显著下降趋势外(P<0.05),其它季节和年降水量的线性变化趋势均不显著。但季节降水量和年降水量都存在多时间尺度特征,不同的时间尺度表现为不同的循环交替,大尺度的周期变化嵌套着小尺度的周期变化。总体上表现为由小尺度的震荡剧烈、没有明显规律到大尺度出现明显规律后继续增强或先升后降。

关键词: 西安市, 小波分析, 降水量

Abstract: This paper used the wavelet transform of the Mexican hat wavelet function to analyze the precipitation data for 45 years(1961-2005) in Xi'an,and calculated the variance yield of wavelet to study the time of precipitation variation and the characteristics of the periodic variation of precipitation in Xi'an.On the basis of the analysis of precipitation time series,the results showed that this paper revealed the different levels of precipitation in the structure and characteristics of abnormal variation and mutation and predicted the seasonal precipitation in Xi'an and the trend of the annual precipitation.Particularly,by analyzing the predicted results of wavelet,the large area of spring drought in 2009,2010 and water-logging from autumnal rains after 2005 in Guanzhong area were verified,and those results were of important reference value and significance to understand the precipitation characteristics of Xi'an,agricultural production in Xi'an and the flood prevention work of the Weihe river.In the past 45 years,the spring precipitation in Xi'an decreased significantly(P<0.05),however,the linear trend of other seasonal and annual precipitation was not significant.Nonetheless,seasonal and annual precipitation had the characteristics of multiple time scales,different time scales showed the different cyclic-alternating-patterns,the periodic variation on large scales was nesting the periodic variation on large-scales.Overall performance was from small-scale of severe shocks,no obvious regularity,to large-scale of obvious regularity and continue to enhance or first and then decrease.

Key words: Xi'an, Wavelet analysis, Precipitation